Jose Navarrete

P DSL Reds

Age 19 RHP ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.8 · 2033

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1231ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	18	ROKCIN	14	11	57	3.61	3.03	23.3%	11.4%	—	K 15.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.20
2027PROJ	19	MLBCIN	—	—	0	5.11	5.11	19.7%	13.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBCIN	4	4	22	5.02	4.94	20.6%	12.0%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLBCIN	6	6	33	4.83	4.73	21.2%	11.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsChristian Fernandez (age 18) · Jairo Garcia (age 20) · Patricio Aquino (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%19.7%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	57	245	57	28	2	79%	4.1	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	1.1%	3.61	4.20	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	57	245	57	28	2	79%	4.1	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	1.1%	3.61	4.20	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	11	57	245	57	28	2	79%	4.1	23.3%	11.4%	11.8%	0.8%	3.61	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	13.5%	6.2%	2.9%	5.11	5.11	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	45	189	39	23	5	100%	5.0	20.6%	12.0%	8.6%	2.8%	4.90	4.82	+0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	45	189	40	21	5	100%	5.0	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.71	4.61	+0.4
2030	22	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	45	190	42	19	5	100%	5.0	22.2%	10.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.38	+0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	46	195	45	19	5	100%	5.1	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.22	+0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	196	46	18	5	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.1%	14.5%	2.7%	4.19	4.10	+0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	193	46	17	5	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.7%	4.10	4.04	+0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	195	47	17	5	100%	5.8	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	2.7%	4.05	4.01	+0.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	45	190	46	17	5	100%	5.6	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	2.7%	4.05	4.05	+0.7
2028	20	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	22	93	19	11	3	100%	5.5	20.6%	12.0%	8.6%	3.1%	5.02	4.94	+0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	33	139	30	15	4	100%	5.5	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.73	+0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	38	160	36	16	5	100%	5.4	22.2%	10.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.50	+0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	42	177	41	17	5	100%	5.2	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.34	+0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	43	182	43	16	5	100%	5.4	23.5%	9.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.22	+0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	43	16	5	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.9%	4.22	4.16	+0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	45	16	5	100%	6.3	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.17	4.13	+0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	44	16	5	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	2.9%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	307	1295	299	124	38	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.42	3.97	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	195	81	25	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.42	3.97	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		14	11	57	245	39	35	3	79%	4.1	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	1.1%	3.61	4.20	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	855	135	122	10	79%	4.1	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	1.1%	3.61	4.20	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Reds · 57 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.20 (+1.17)K% 23.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.27%	—	×0.680	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.250	14.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.14%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Navarrete (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	19.7%	13.5%	2.9%	—	4.60	21.4%	10.3%	135	-0.51	—	—	—
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	87
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	87
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	86
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	85
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Bishop Letson R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	19	SP	4.80	16.4%	12.4%	2.8%	.222	4.00	20.2%	9.3%	132	-0.80	2.44	195	83
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	83
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	83
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	82
Juan Carela R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP	4.42	17.0%	13.5%	1.9%	.333	4.32	20.8%	9.3%	329	-0.10	4.23	455	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	82
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Reggie Lawson R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP	4.73	21.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.313	4.68	18.5%	7.2%	145	-0.05	4.19	293	81
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	81
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	45	22.5%	10.1%	1.06	4.43
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Will Ohman ('12)	1.8	50	21.8%	10.3%	1.07	4.28
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*