Regi Grace — OGILVIE

Regi Grace P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%18.5%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	6	1	11	49	8	4	0	17%	1.8	16.3%	8.2%	8.2%	0.0%	5.06	2.76	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	6	1	11	49	8	4	0	17%	1.8	16.3%	8.2%	8.2%	0.0%	5.06	2.73	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	6	5	21	100	24	9	1	83%	3.5	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	1.4%	5.14	3.92	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	6	5	21	100	24	9	1	83%	3.5	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	1.0%	5.14	2.72	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	31	127	35	11	3	89%	3.5	19.6%	10.7%	8.8%	3.6%	2.59	4.76	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	31	127	35	11	3	89%	3.5	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	2.4%	2.59	3.16	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	3	60	281	78	30	4	8%	1.6	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	2.0%	4.77	3.96	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	3	60	281	78	30	4	8%	1.6	27.8%	10.7%	17.1%	1.4%	4.77	2.87	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	74	306	83	28	5	2%	1.7	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	1.6%	3.18	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	74	306	83	28	5	2%	1.7	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	1.6%	3.18	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	74	306	83	28	5	2%	1.7	27.1%	9.2%	18.0%	1.6%	3.18	2.87	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	31	0	43	191	34	20	4	0%	1.4	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.97	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	31	0	43	191	34	20	4	0%	1.4	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.97	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	31	0	43	191	34	20	4	0%	1.4	17.8%	10.5%	7.3%	2.1%	4.19	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIN	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.6%	7.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	36	0	38	161	31	17	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.85	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	60	11	6	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	84	28	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		133	18	240	1054	201	116	22	14%	1.8	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	2.1%	3.94	4.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	15	200	878	168	97	18	14%	1.8	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	2.1%	3.94	4.03	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Regi Grace (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	18.5%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.85	19.0%	8.5%	38	-0.02	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	84
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	83
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	82
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	81
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	18.8%	10.6%	1.15	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43