Bryan Polanco

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AWSH	24	23	112	3.71	4.34	18.2%	9.1%	—	K 13.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.31
2026	24	A+WSH	26	9	90	5.28	4.46	22.8%	11.4%	—	K 17.5% · BB 13.1% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.88	5.88	14.1%	14.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	5	5	32	5.68	5.65	15.6%	13.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	6	6	40	5.58	5.58	16.1%	13.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Ryan Jensen (age 25) · Boone Whiting (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%14.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%-0.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	5	0	8	34	11	2	0	0%	1.5	32.4%	5.9%	26.5%	0.0%	7.04	1.11	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	5	0	8	34	11	2	0	0%	1.5	32.4%	5.9%	26.5%	0.0%	7.04	1.01	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	7	41	183	49	21	4	64%	3.7	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.3%	3.51	5.18	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	7	41	183	49	21	4	64%	3.7	26.8%	11.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.51	3.51	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	10.0%	11.4%	-1.3%	5.6%	5.48	6.75	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	14.5%	8.0%	6.5%	4.5%	5.48	5.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.3%	4.06	5.43	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.3%	4.06	5.43	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.7%	4.06	4.50	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	3.6%	3.71	5.31	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	3.6%	3.71	5.31	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.34	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.0%	5.28	5.49	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.0%	5.28	5.49	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	3.2%	5.28	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.1%	14.1%	-0.0%	3.3%	5.88	5.88	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	74	311	49	42	10	100%	6.1	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.3%	5.68	5.65	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	64	269	43	35	9	100%	6.4	16.1%	13.1%	3.0%	3.3%	5.58	5.58	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	59	248	40	32	8	100%	6.5	16.3%	12.9%	3.3%	3.4%	5.57	5.60	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	54	229	37	30	8	100%	6.0	16.2%	13.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.63	5.70	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	50	210	33	28	8	100%	6.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	3.7%	5.78	5.87	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	32	135	21	18	4	100%	6.4	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.3%	5.68	5.65	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	40	169	27	22	6	100%	6.7	16.1%	13.1%	3.0%	3.3%	5.58	5.58	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	44	186	30	24	6	100%	6.3	16.3%	12.9%	3.3%	3.4%	5.57	5.60	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	44	186	30	24	7	100%	6.3	16.2%	13.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.63	5.70	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	43	182	29	24	7	100%	6.1	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	3.7%	5.78	5.87	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	32	203	855	137	112	30	100%	6.3	16.0%	13.1%	2.9%	3.4%	5.65	5.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	135	111	30	100%	6.4	16.0%	13.1%	2.9%	3.4%	5.65	5.30	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		99	65	388	1707	255	209	64	66%	3.9	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.41	5.45	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	34	200	880	132	108	33	66%	3.9	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.41	5.45	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 90 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.49 (+1.10)K% 22.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.77%	—	×0.770	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×1.150	13.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.22%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 112 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.31 (+1.01)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.22%	—	×0.740	13.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.11%	—	×1.180	10.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.040	×1.300	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 93 IPFIP 4.46 → 5.43 (+0.97)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.36%	—	×0.740	13.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.180	13.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.078	×1.300	3.29%

Result: FIP 4.46 → 5.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 38 IPFIP 5.19 → 6.75 (+1.56)K% 14.8% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.77%	—	×0.680	10.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.57%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.19 → 6.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 6 IPFIP 6.62 → 8.80 (+2.19)K% 12.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.740	9.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷0.917	×1.300	11.82%

Result: FIP 6.62 → 8.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Nationals · 41 IPFIP 3.49 → 5.18 (+1.69)K% 26.8% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.78%	—	×0.680	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.250	14.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.930	×1.400	3.29%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Nationals · 8 IPFIP 1.11 → 2.17 (+1.06)K% 32.4% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.35%	—	×0.680	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.862	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.11 → 2.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Polanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	14.1%	14.1%	3.3%	—	5.61	16.0%	2.8%	196	-0.27	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	86
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	86
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	79
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	78
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	78
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	78
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	78
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	77
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	77
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	77
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	62	15.6%	13.3%	1.31	5.69
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*