Bryan Polanco
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.9 · 2029
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%8.3%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2029
STUF3030
CTRL4545
CMD3030
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 5 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.04 | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 7 | 41 | 183 | 49 | 21 | 4 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 11 | 9 | 44 | 200 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 10.0% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 5.48 | 6.75 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 17 | 93 | 403 | 74 | 45 | 11 | 13.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 24 | 23 | 112 | 483 | 88 | 44 | 14 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 3.71 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.79 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 68 | 51 | 13 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 103 | 438 | 73 | 52 | 14 | 16.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 5.41 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 82 | 55 | 15 | 17.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 90 | 56 | 16 | 18.0% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 94 | 57 | 16 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 94 | 57 | 16 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 91 | 56 | 16 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 88 | 55 | 16 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 5.15 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 83 | 54 | 16 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 79 | 52 | 15 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.34 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 74 | 51 | 15 | 17.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.38 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 69 | 49 | 15 | 16.8% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 5.48 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 63 | 47 | 14 | 16.4% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 5.60 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 58 | 45 | 14 | 15.9% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 5.72 | 5.81 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 57 | 302 | 1324 | 189 | 157 | 49 | 14.3% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 5.44 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 38 | 200 | 876 | 125 | 104 | 32 | 14.3% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 5.44 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Polanco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 3.2% | — | 5.12 | 17.9% | 6.6% | 353 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.02 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 169 | -1.25 | 3.56 | 269 | 93 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 92 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 92 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 91 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 91 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 91 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 90 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 89 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 88 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 88 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.57 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.5% | .257 | 4.55 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -1.02 | 4.55 | 140 | 88 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 88 |
| Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 87 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 87 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.99 | 176 | 87 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 87 |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.97 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 54 | -0.23 | 4.97 | 150 | 87 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 87 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.