Bryan Polanco — OGILVIE

Bryan Polanco P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%11.6%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%-1.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	5	0	8	34	11	2	0	0%	1.5	32.4%	5.9%	26.5%	0.0%	7.04	1.11	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	5	0	8	34	11	2	0	0%	1.5	32.4%	5.9%	26.5%	0.0%	7.04	1.01	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	7	41	183	49	21	4	64%	3.7	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.3%	3.51	5.18	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	7	41	183	49	21	4	64%	3.7	26.8%	11.5%	15.3%	2.2%	3.51	3.51	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	10.0%	11.4%	-1.3%	5.6%	5.48	6.75	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	10.0%	11.4%	-1.3%	5.6%	5.48	6.75	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	44	200	29	16	9	82%	4.0	14.5%	8.0%	6.5%	4.5%	5.48	5.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.3%	4.06	5.43	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	13.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.3%	4.06	5.43	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	17	93	403	74	45	11	77%	4.2	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.7%	4.06	4.50	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	3.6%	3.71	5.31	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	13.5%	10.7%	2.7%	3.6%	3.71	5.31	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	23	112	483	88	44	14	96%	4.7	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.0%	5.28	5.49	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.0%	5.28	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	26	9	90	404	92	46	13	35%	3.5	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	3.2%	5.28	4.39	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	3	3	1	0%	1.1	11.6%	13.3%	-1.7%	3.2%	5.92	5.92	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	96	427	95	49	14	—	—	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.2%	5.32	5.51	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	102	430	60	53	13	100%	6.4	14.0%	12.4%	1.6%	3.1%	5.65	5.58	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	102	430	66	51	13	100%	6.4	15.4%	12.0%	3.4%	3.1%	5.47	5.41	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	100	423	67	50	13	100%	6.3	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	3.2%	5.40	5.39	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	97	411	65	49	13	100%	6.5	15.8%	11.9%	3.9%	3.3%	5.41	5.44	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	93	392	61	48	13	100%	6.2	15.5%	12.1%	3.4%	3.4%	5.51	5.58	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	87	369	56	46	13	100%	6.2	15.2%	12.4%	2.8%	3.6%	5.66	5.75	-0.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	44	186	26	23	6	100%	6.3	14.0%	12.4%	1.6%	3.1%	5.65	5.58	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	44	34	9	100%	6.2	15.4%	12.0%	3.4%	3.1%	5.47	5.41	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	78	329	52	39	10	100%	6.5	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	3.2%	5.40	5.39	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	82	346	55	41	11	100%	6.3	15.8%	11.9%	3.9%	3.3%	5.41	5.44	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	81	342	53	41	12	100%	6.2	15.5%	12.1%	3.4%	3.4%	5.51	5.58	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	78	329	50	41	12	100%	6.5	15.2%	12.4%	2.8%	3.6%	5.66	5.75	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	431	1818	279	220	60	100%	6.3	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.3%	5.51	5.14	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	130	102	28	100%	6.3	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.3%	5.51	5.14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		99	65	388	1707	255	209	64	66%	3.9	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.41	5.45	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	34	200	880	132	108	33	66%	3.9	14.9%	12.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.41	5.45	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Polanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	11.6%	13.3%	3.2%	—	5.46	15.0%	3.0%	304	-0.46	—	—	—
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	88
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	87
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	86
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	81
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	81
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	81
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	80
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	80
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	78
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	78
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	77
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	77
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	77
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	77
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	77
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	76
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	76
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	76
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	93	14.9%	12.2%	1.26	5.56
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48