Bryan Polanco
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151141vR 132
ERA5.88
FIP5.88
K%11.6%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%-1.6%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 5 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 7.04 | 1.11 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 5 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 7.04 | 1.01 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 7 | 41 | 183 | 49 | 21 | 4 | 64% | 3.7 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.51 | 5.33 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 7 | 41 | 183 | 49 | 21 | 4 | 64% | 3.7 | 26.8% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.51 | 3.51 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 9 | 44 | 200 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 82% | 4.0 | 10.0% | 11.4% | -1.3% | 5.6% | 5.48 | 6.75 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 9 | 44 | 200 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 82% | 4.0 | 14.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.48 | 5.51 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 17 | 93 | 403 | 74 | 45 | 11 | 77% | 4.2 | 13.6% | 13.2% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 5.31 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 17 | 93 | 403 | 74 | 45 | 11 | 77% | 4.2 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 24 | 23 | 112 | 483 | 88 | 44 | 14 | 96% | 4.7 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 5.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 24 | 23 | 112 | 483 | 88 | 44 | 14 | 96% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 17 | 9 | 63 | 282 | 64 | 29 | 11 | 53% | 3.7 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.43 | 5.80 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 69 | 292 | 34 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.9 | 11.6% | 13.2% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.6% | 13.2% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 5.88 | 5.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 132 | 574 | 98 | 68 | 20 | — | — | 17.1% | 11.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.66 | 5.84 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.6% | 13.2% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 5.88 | 5.50 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 42 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.63 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.45 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 46 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 45 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.41 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.63 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.45 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 38 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.41 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 187 | 788 | 123 | 96 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.45 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 132 | 103 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.45 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 65 | 361 | 1585 | 234 | 189 | 61 | 72% | 4.0 | 14.7% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.37 | 5.47 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 879 | 130 | 105 | 34 | 72% | 4.0 | 14.7% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.37 | 5.47 | -0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Polanco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.45 | 15.2% | 3.0% | 209 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Boone Whiting R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 84 |
| Andrew Thurman R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% | .291 | 2.59 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 25 | -3.42 | 2.59 | 237 | 83 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 82 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 82 |
| Tanner Hall R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 82 |
| Casey Steward R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 80 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 80 |
| Justin Dillon R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 79 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2027 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 78 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2029 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 78 |
| Lauro Ramirez R 2027 · 6.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.21 | 9.5% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .382 | 5.19 | 7.2% | -3.4% | 90 | -1.02 | 5.19 | 140 | 78 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 77 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 77 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 77 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2028 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 76 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 76 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 76 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 76 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 76 |
| Wellington Caceres R 2024 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 121 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 69 | 14.6% | 12.4% | 1.21 | 5.55 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |