Christian Fernandez
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.9%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 16 | 0 | 35 | 154 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 2.2 | 15.0% | 17.0% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 5.49 | — |
| 2016 | 16 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 16 | 0 | 35 | 154 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 2.2 | 22.1% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 4.84 | 4.06 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 14 | 14 | 61 | 246 | 52 | 24 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 14.4% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 3.41 | 4.06 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 14 | 14 | 61 | 246 | 52 | 24 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 0.8% | 3.41 | 3.00 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 14 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 62 | 25 | 4 | 71% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.61 | 4.50 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 14 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 62 | 25 | 4 | 71% | 4.2 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 3.15 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 14 | 87 | 374 | 113 | 42 | 10 | 58% | 3.6 | 22.6% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 4.15 | 4.97 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 14 | 87 | 374 | 113 | 42 | 10 | 58% | 3.6 | 30.2% | 11.2% | 19.0% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 3.45 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 30 | 8 | 83 | 370 | 89 | 42 | 7 | 27% | 2.8 | 18.5% | 13.1% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 4.57 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 30 | 8 | 83 | 370 | 89 | 42 | 7 | 27% | 2.8 | 24.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 4.57 | 3.57 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 53 | 226 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.08 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 82 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 46 | 324 | 1392 | 254 | 185 | 33 | 47% | 3.3 | 18.2% | 13.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 4.55 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 28 | 200 | 859 | 157 | 114 | 20 | 47% | 3.3 | 18.2% | 13.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Fernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.45 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 112 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 82 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 79 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.25 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.63 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.25 | 221 | 77 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 77 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 77 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 77 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 76 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 76 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 76 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 75 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 74 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 73 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 73 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 73 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.52 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .341 | 3.55 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 41 | +0.03 | 3.06 | 222 | 73 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 73 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 1.16 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |