Christian Fernandez
P
Lansing Lugnuts
+0.7
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.2%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 16 | 0 | 35 | 154 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 15.0% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 14 | 14 | 61 | 246 | 52 | 24 | 2 | 14.4% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 3.41 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 14 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 62 | 25 | 4 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 2.61 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 24 | 14 | 87 | 374 | 113 | 42 | 10 | 22.6% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.15 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 30 | 8 | 83 | 370 | 89 | 42 | 7 | 18.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 4.57 | 4.31 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 80 | 34 | 10 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 83 | 34 | 11 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 83 | 34 | 11 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 81 | 34 | 11 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 78 | 33 | 11 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 81 | 29 | 11 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 77 | 29 | 10 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 72 | 28 | 10 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 68 | 27 | 10 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 63 | 26 | 10 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 46 | 324 | 1392 | 254 | 185 | 34 | 18.2% | 13.3% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 4.58 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 28 | 200 | 859 | 157 | 114 | 21 | 18.2% | 13.3% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 4.58 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Fernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 258 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 85 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 84 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 84 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 84 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.16 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .317 | 3.35 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 50 | -0.81 | 3.35 | 394 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.61 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.39 | 3.22 | 221 | 83 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 82 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 81 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 81 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 81 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 80 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 80 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 80 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.98 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.10 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 74 | +0.12 | 3.98 | 481 | 80 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 80 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.59 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.44 | 2.71 | 469 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $14M | +$8M | ||