Jake Christianson
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 124
ERA5.48
FIP5.48
K%13.7%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%1.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 62.5% | 12.5% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.59 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 62.5% | 12.5% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 28 | 9 | 83 | 351 | 85 | 30 | 6 | 32% | 3.0 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 3.48 | 3.92 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 28 | 9 | 83 | 351 | 85 | 30 | 6 | 32% | 3.0 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 1.7% | 3.48 | 3.08 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 31 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 56 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 3.74 | 4.49 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 31 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 56 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 39 | 0 | 52 | 233 | 41 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 5.08 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 39 | 0 | 52 | 233 | 41 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 4.67 | 4.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 8 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 41 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.7% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.48 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.7% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.48 | 5.48 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 80 | 336 | 51 | 38 | 10 | — | — | 15.1% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.27 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.7% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.48 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 43 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.38 | 5.03 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 126 | 98 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.38 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 108 | 9 | 200 | 857 | 153 | 87 | 22 | 8% | 1.8 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 9 | 200 | 858 | 153 | 87 | 23 | 8% | 1.8 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Christianson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.48 | 13.7% | 11.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.40 | 14.9% | 3.3% | 136 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 88 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.42 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.3% | .270 | 5.61 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 38 | +1.19 | 3.95 | 165 | 87 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.20 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 104 | 86 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.61 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.31 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.30 | 4.31 | 164 | 86 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.84 | 13.7% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 185 | 85 |
| Justin Camp R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 85 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 85 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 84 |
| Jason Jester R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 11.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.05 | 17.6% | 12.5% | 60 | -1.76 | 2.62 | 229 | 84 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 83 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 83 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .273 | 3.69 | 12.8% | 4.9% | 48 | -1.14 | 3.69 | 162 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.64 | 16.6% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .333 | 5.37 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 46 | +0.73 | 3.74 | 140 | 83 |
| Tyler Burch R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 83 |
| Todd Peterson R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .289 | 5.42 | 12.8% | -2.3% | 21 | +0.96 | 4.46 | 175 | 83 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 82 |
| David Holman R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 82 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.69 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | .338 | 5.27 | 14.2% | 5.1% | 63 | +0.58 | 3.97 | 345 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 14.5% | 11.8% | 1.19 | 5.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |