Jake Christianson

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+TB	31	0	53	3.74	3.53	24.9%	8.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.51
2025	25	A+OAK	39	0	52	4.67	4.04	17.6%	9.4%	—	K 13.5% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.93
2026	26	MIX2 levels	8	0	10	3.72	3.31	25.0%	7.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.31
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.49	5.49	13.7%	12.0%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBMIA	17	0	18	5.42	5.45	14.6%	11.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBMIA	21	0	22	5.43	5.50	15.0%	11.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Kyle McMyne (age 27) · Brian Bass (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%13.7%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%1.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	2	0	2	8	5	1	0	0%	1.2	62.5%	12.5%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.59	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	2	0	2	8	5	1	0	0%	1.2	62.5%	12.5%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	28	9	83	351	85	30	6	32%	3.0	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.00	—
2023	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	28	9	83	351	85	30	6	32%	3.0	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	1.7%	3.48	3.08	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	53	225	56	19	6	0%	1.7	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.3%	3.74	4.51	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	53	225	56	19	6	0%	1.7	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.3%	3.74	4.51	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	53	225	56	19	6	0%	1.7	24.9%	8.4%	16.4%	2.7%	3.74	3.53	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	39	0	52	233	41	22	5	0%	1.3	13.5%	10.9%	2.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.93	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	39	0	52	233	41	22	5	0%	1.3	13.5%	10.9%	2.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.93	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	39	0	52	233	41	22	5	0%	1.3	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.1%	4.67	4.04	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	40	10	3	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	7.5%	17.5%	2.5%	3.72	3.31	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	40	10	3	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	7.5%	17.5%	2.5%	3.72	3.31	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	10	40	10	3	1	0%	1.2	25.0%	7.5%	17.5%	2.5%	3.72	3.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.7%	12.0%	1.7%	3.0%	5.49	5.49	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	47	0	49	207	30	25	6	0%	1.0	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	3.1%	5.42	5.45	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	38	0	40	171	26	20	6	0%	1.1	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	3.2%	5.43	5.50	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	11	9	2	0%	1.1	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	3.1%	5.42	5.45	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	14	11	3	0%	1.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	3.2%	5.43	5.50	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	170	25	20	5	0%	1.1	14.8%	11.9%	2.9%	3.2%	5.43	5.10	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	124	100	25	0%	1.1	14.8%	11.9%	2.9%	3.2%	5.43	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		108	9	200	857	153	87	22	8%	1.8	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.83	4.31	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	9	200	858	153	87	22	8%	1.8	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.83	4.31	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 6 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.29 (+0.69)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.150	13.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 52 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.93 (+0.94)K% 17.6% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.60%	—	×0.770	13.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×1.150	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷0.921	×1.250	2.91%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 53 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.51 (+0.98)K% 24.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.89%	—	×0.770	19.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.44%	—	×1.150	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.015	×1.250	3.28%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 83 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.00 (+0.92)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.22%	—	×0.740	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.55%	—	×1.180	10.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.075	×1.300	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Christianson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	13.7%	12.0%	3.0%	—	5.47	14.8%	2.9%	89	-0.02	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	88
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	86
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	84
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	83
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	83
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	83
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	83
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	82
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	82
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	81
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	81
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	81
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	81
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	14.3%	11.9%	1.20	5.45
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*