Jake Christianson

Jake Christianson P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%13.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	2	0	2	8	5	1	0	0%	1.2	62.5%	12.5%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.59	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	2	0	2	8	5	1	0	0%	1.2	62.5%	12.5%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	28	9	83	351	85	30	6	32%	3.0	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.00	—
2023	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	28	9	83	351	85	30	6	32%	3.0	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.00	—
2023	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	28	9	83	351	85	30	6	32%	3.0	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	1.7%	3.48	3.08	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	53	225	56	19	6	0%	1.7	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.3%	3.74	4.51	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	53	225	56	19	6	0%	1.7	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	3.3%	3.74	4.51	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	53	225	56	19	6	0%	1.7	24.9%	8.4%	16.4%	2.7%	3.74	3.53	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	39	0	52	233	41	22	5	0%	1.3	13.5%	10.9%	2.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.93	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	39	0	52	233	41	22	5	0%	1.3	13.5%	10.9%	2.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.93	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	39	0	52	233	41	22	5	0%	1.3	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.1%	4.67	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	8	0	10	40	10	3	1	0%	1.2	—	—	—	—	3.72	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	8	0	10	40	10	3	1	0%	1.2	—	—	—	—	3.72	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	MIA	5	0	6	25	6	3	0	0%	1.2	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	0.0%	3.00	2.59	—
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	3	0	4	15	4	0	1	0%	1.2	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	6.7%	4.91	4.51	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.9%	1.9%	3.0%	5.46	5.46	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	16	65	13	6	2	—	—	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	2.7%	4.38	2.06	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	43	34	9	0%	1.0	14.7%	11.7%	3.0%	3.0%	5.37	5.39	-0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	43	33	9	0%	1.0	15.2%	11.6%	3.6%	3.1%	5.35	5.39	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	41	32	9	0%	1.0	15.4%	11.7%	3.6%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	24	0	25	106	15	12	3	0%	1.0	14.7%	11.7%	3.0%	3.0%	5.37	5.39	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	37	0	39	165	25	19	5	0%	1.1	15.2%	11.6%	3.6%	3.1%	5.35	5.39	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	43	0	45	190	29	22	6	0%	1.0	15.4%	11.7%	3.6%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	110	463	70	54	15	0%	1.1	15.2%	11.7%	3.5%	3.2%	5.38	5.04	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	128	98	27	0%	1.1	15.2%	11.7%	3.5%	3.2%	5.38	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		108	9	200	857	153	87	22	8%	1.8	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.83	4.31	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	9	200	858	153	87	22	8%	1.8	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.83	4.31	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Christianson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	13.7%	11.9%	3.0%	—	5.42	15.1%	3.4%	200	-0.04	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	88
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	87
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	86
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	85
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	85
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	84
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Jason Jester R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	26	SU	4.94	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.311	2.88	17.6%	12.5%	60	-2.06	2.48	229	84
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	83
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	82
Philip Walby R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	12.7%	12.0%	1.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	137	82
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	81
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	81
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	81
Jarod Wright R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	13.2%	9.4%	2.4%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	170	81
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	14.7%	11.7%	1.20	5.40
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41