Patricio Aquino — OGILVIE

Patricio Aquino P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%13.0%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	11	11	44	190	54	27	0	100%	4.0	19.3%	17.8%	1.6%	0.0%	2.66	3.72	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	11	11	44	190	54	27	0	100%	4.0	28.4%	14.2%	14.2%	0.0%	2.66	2.49	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Gold	8	7	34	152	49	16	3	88%	4.3	21.9%	13.2%	8.8%	2.4%	4.72	4.24	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Gold	8	7	34	152	49	16	3	88%	4.3	32.2%	10.5%	21.7%	2.0%	4.72	2.78	—
2023	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	19	88	369	86	31	6	90%	4.2	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	2.0%	2.75	3.98	—
2023	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	19	88	369	86	31	6	90%	4.2	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	2.0%	2.75	3.98	—
2023	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	21	19	88	369	86	31	6	90%	4.2	23.3%	8.4%	14.9%	1.6%	2.75	3.09	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	10	79	330	57	23	6	50%	4.0	13.3%	8.0%	5.3%	2.3%	3.65	4.27	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	10	79	330	57	23	6	50%	4.0	13.3%	8.0%	5.3%	2.3%	3.65	4.27	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	10	79	330	57	23	6	50%	4.0	17.3%	7.0%	10.3%	1.8%	3.65	3.52	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	2	67	303	57	27	2	6%	2.0	14.5%	10.2%	4.2%	0.7%	4.16	3.54	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	2	67	303	57	27	2	6%	2.0	14.5%	10.2%	4.2%	0.7%	4.16	3.54	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	2	67	303	57	27	2	6%	2.0	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.7%	4.16	3.00	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	6	0	11	46	7	10	0	0%	1.8	—	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	6	0	11	46	7	10	0	0%	1.8	—	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	6	0	11	46	7	10	0	0%	1.8	15.2%	21.7%	-6.5%	0.0%	5.06	4.57	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIL	5	0	5	22	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.0%	11.0%	2.0%	2.5%	5.14	5.14	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	16	68	10	12	1	—	—	14.5%	18.3%	-3.8%	0.8%	5.09	1.68	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	73	308	47	33	8	0%	1.1	15.3%	10.6%	4.7%	2.5%	4.97	4.91	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	74	312	52	32	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	2.5%	4.83	4.77	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	74	312	54	32	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.6%	4.75	4.71	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	73	307	54	32	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	2.6%	4.74	4.74	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	67	0	70	298	52	31	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	284	49	30	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.7%	6.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.96	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	60	0	63	267	45	29	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.0%	5.8%	3.1%	5.04	5.13	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	30	0	32	135	21	14	3	0%	1.1	15.3%	10.6%	4.7%	2.5%	4.97	4.91	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	47	0	49	207	35	21	5	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	2.5%	4.83	4.77	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	56	0	59	249	43	26	6	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.6%	4.75	4.71	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	46	27	7	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	2.6%	4.74	4.74	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	60	0	63	266	46	28	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	44	28	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.7%	6.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.96	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	55	0	58	245	41	27	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.0%	5.8%	3.1%	5.04	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	385	1624	277	171	44	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.5%	6.5%	2.7%	4.85	4.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	89	23	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.5%	6.5%	2.7%	4.85	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		99	49	323	1390	228	158	21	49%	3.3	16.4%	11.4%	5.1%	1.5%	3.54	3.96	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	30	200	860	141	98	13	49%	3.3	16.4%	11.4%	5.1%	1.5%	3.54	3.96	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patricio Aquino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	13.0%	11.0%	2.5%	—	4.80	16.5%	6.1%	220	-0.34	—	—	—
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	89
Michael Wagner R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	23	SW	4.14	13.1%	11.3%	1.3%	.287	4.29	16.4%	4.1%	84	+0.15	4.14	149	89
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	88
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	87
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	86
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	85
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	85
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	84
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	83
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	83
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	83
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	83
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	83
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	82
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	16.5%	10.6%	1.03	4.89
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38