Patricio Aquino
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA5.14
FIP5.14
K%13.0%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%1.9%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 190 | 54 | 27 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 19.3% | 17.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 3.72 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 190 | 54 | 27 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.4% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 2.49 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 8 | 7 | 34 | 152 | 49 | 16 | 3 | 88% | 4.3 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 4.72 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | 8 | 7 | 34 | 152 | 49 | 16 | 3 | 88% | 4.3 | 32.2% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 2.0% | 4.72 | 2.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 21 | 19 | 88 | 369 | 86 | 31 | 6 | 90% | 4.2 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 2.75 | 3.91 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 21 | 19 | 88 | 369 | 86 | 31 | 6 | 90% | 4.2 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 2.75 | 3.09 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 20 | 10 | 79 | 330 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 50% | 4.0 | 13.3% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 3.65 | 4.29 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 20 | 10 | 79 | 330 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 50% | 4.0 | 17.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 3.65 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 33 | 2 | 67 | 303 | 57 | 27 | 2 | 6% | 2.0 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 4.16 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 33 | 2 | 67 | 303 | 57 | 27 | 2 | 6% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 0.7% | 4.16 | 3.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 6 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 34 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 72 | 306 | 41 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 13.4% | 12.7% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 5.13 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 13.0% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 41 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 37 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 0 | 122 | 517 | 86 | 54 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.40 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 140 | 88 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 49 | 323 | 1390 | 228 | 158 | 20 | 49% | 3.3 | 16.4% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 3.54 | 3.92 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 30 | 200 | 860 | 141 | 98 | 12 | 49% | 3.3 | 16.4% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 3.54 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patricio Aquino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 13.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | — | 4.79 | 16.5% | 6.0% | 191 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Michael Wagner R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 13.1% | 11.3% | 1.2% | .287 | 4.27 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 84 | +0.17 | 4.10 | 149 | 88 |
| Axel Rios R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 88 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 86 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 85 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 85 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 85 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 85 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 84 |
| LJ Brewster R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 84 |
| Matt Marsh R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 83 |
| Raymar Navarro R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.2% | .332 | 4.29 | 11.8% | 1.0% | 41 | +0.17 | 4.12 | 108 | 83 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 83 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 83 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 83 |
| Marco Camarena R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 83 |
| Kyle Miller R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 83 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 83 |
| Jason Hursh R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.30 | 12.0% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .363 | 3.33 | 16.2% | 5.3% | 193 | -0.97 | 3.30 | 338 | 82 |
| Jheyson Caraballo R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.25 | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 101 | 82 |
| Brad Allen R 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 15.6% | 10.6% | 0.97 | 4.92 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |