Patricio Aquino — OGILVIE

Patricio Aquino P Biloxi Shuckers

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2029

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%9.5%

IP73

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	11	11	44	190	54	27	0	19.3%	17.8%	0.0%	2.66	3.72	+0.6
2022	19	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	8	7	34	152	49	16	3	21.9%	13.2%	2.3%	4.72	4.19	+0.3
2023	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	21	19	88	369	86	31	6	17.2%	9.9%	2.0%	2.75	4.00	+1.2
2024	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	10	79	330	57	23	6	13.3%	8.0%	2.3%	3.65	4.27	+0.8
2025	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	2	67	303	57	27	2	14.5%	10.2%	0.7%	4.16	3.56	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	3	0	7	31	6	5	0	—	—	—	4.91	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	MIL	13	13	73	307	58	29	8	18.8%	9.3%	2.5%	4.44	4.44	+0.5
2026 Total	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	80	338	64	34	8	18.9%	10.0%	2.3%	4.48	4.03	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	MIL	14	14	74	315	63	28	8	20.1%	9.0%	2.5%	4.35	4.29	+0.7
2028	25	MLB	MIL	14	14	75	318	66	28	8	20.9%	8.8%	2.5%	4.27	4.22	+0.7
2029	26	MLB	MIL	14	14	75	318	67	28	8	21.2%	8.7%	2.6%	4.23	4.20	+0.8
2030	27	MLB	MIL	14	14	75	316	67	28	8	21.3%	8.8%	2.6%	4.22	4.21	+0.7
2031	28	MLB	MIL	13	13	74	311	66	27	8	21.2%	8.8%	2.6%	4.23	4.24	+0.7
2032	29	MLB	MIL	13	13	72	304	64	27	8	21.1%	8.9%	2.7%	4.26	4.29	+0.6
2033	30	MLB	MIL	13	13	70	295	62	27	8	20.9%	9.0%	2.7%	4.31	4.35	+0.5
2034	31	MLB	MIL	12	12	67	285	59	26	8	20.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.42	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	MIL	12	12	65	273	56	25	8	20.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.51	+0.4
2036	33	MLB	MIL	11	11	62	261	52	25	8	20.1%	9.5%	3.0%	4.55	4.61	+0.2
2037	34	MLB	MIL	59	—	59	248	49	24	8	19.7%	9.7%	3.1%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2038	35	MLB	MIL	55	—	55	233	45	23	7	19.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.76	4.84	+0.1
2039	36	MLB	MIL	52	—	52	218	41	22	7	18.9%	10.1%	3.3%	4.89	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			96	49	320	1375	227	153	21	16.5%	11.1%	1.5%	3.52	3.94	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—			60	31	200	859	142	96	13	16.5%	11.1%	1.5%	3.52	3.94	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patricio Aquino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	18.8%	9.3%	2.5%	—	4.24	20.7%	11.9%	225	-0.20	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.94	18.5%	7.4%	135	-0.43	3.84	213	95
Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	17.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-1.97	2.66	145	95
Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.21	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.71	301	94
Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	23	SW	4.44	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.81	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.63	2.36	229	94
Tai Tiedemann R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	23	SW	3.84	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.79	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.95	3.84	190	93
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	93
Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	92
Matt Marsh R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.68	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.47	3.13	143	92
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.36	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.07	4.29	222	91
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	91
Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	23	SW	3.97	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.72	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.75	3.97	260	91
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.49	24.9%	14.5%	98	-0.93	2.46	228	91
Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SW	4.12	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.12	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.00	3.91	194	91
Simon Mercedes R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SW	4.85	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.89	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.04	4.85	139	90
Rob Huber R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SW	3.89	18.3%	11.7%	1.5%	.304	4.71	15.7%	1.0%	64	+0.82	3.89	117	90
Dylan Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.07	120	90
Dylan Simmons R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SW	3.83	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	4.33	12.8%	0.9%	51	+0.50	3.83	102	90
Matt Carasiti R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SW	3.87	17.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.309	3.25	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.62	2.78	312	90
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SW	3.81	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.92	13.9%	7.0%	196	+1.11	3.81	264	90
Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	23	SW	3.93	17.4%	8.8%	2.2%	.254	3.71	22.4%	14.4%	89	-0.22	2.30	189	90

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$5M		$18M	+$12M