Juan Carela — OGILVIE

Juan Carela P Birmingham Barons

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	12	8	32	164	30	29	1	67%	2.7	12.4%	22.1%	-9.7%	0.9%	7.59	5.32	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	12	8	32	164	30	29	1	67%	2.7	18.3%	17.7%	0.6%	0.6%	7.59	4.35	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	42	204	49	23	3	92%	3.5	17.0%	13.5%	3.5%	1.9%	6.38	4.42	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	42	204	49	23	3	92%	3.5	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	1.5%	6.38	3.34	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	463	131	52	9	91%	4.7	21.1%	13.1%	7.9%	2.4%	4.21	4.32	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	107	463	131	52	9	91%	4.7	28.3%	11.2%	17.1%	1.9%	4.21	3.20	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.0%	3.58	4.23	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.0%	3.58	4.23	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	27.9%	8.8%	19.1%	2.5%	3.58	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.8%	3.71	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.8%	3.71	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	25.2%	9.9%	15.2%	2.0%	3.71	3.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	17.2%	12.2%	5.0%	3.7%	4.75	5.21	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	17.2%	12.2%	5.0%	3.7%	4.75	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CWS	2	2	4	14	5	2	0	100%	1.9	35.7%	14.3%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.89	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	CWS	4	4	13	53	12	5	0	100%	3.2	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	0.0%	4.15	2.38	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	10	10	38	175	37	20	7	100%	3.8	21.1%	11.4%	9.7%	4.0%	5.17	4.96	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	12	52	10	6	2	100%	6.2	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	67	294	64	33	9	—	—	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	2.9%	4.75	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	137	580	120	58	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.63	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	137	580	122	57	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.57	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	135	571	121	56	17	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.60	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	554	116	55	17	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.63	4.67	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	125	529	110	53	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	118	497	102	52	17	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.1%	3.5%	4.88	4.98	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	110	464	93	50	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.7%	5.06	5.18	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	60	253	53	25	8	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.70	4.66	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	92	388	82	38	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.0%	4.63	4.60	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	105	443	94	43	14	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	3.1%	4.62	4.63	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	111	469	99	46	15	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.2%	4.66	4.70	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	110	464	97	47	16	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	106	448	91	46	16	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.1%	3.5%	4.91	5.01	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	101	426	85	46	16	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.8%	5.10	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	114	684	2889	599	291	95	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.77	4.44	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	85	28	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.77	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		109	101	459	2013	388	255	53	93%	4.2	19.3%	12.6%	6.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.52	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	878	169	111	23	93%	4.2	19.3%	12.6%	6.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.52	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Carela (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	20.1%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.60	21.0%	11.2%	410	-0.19	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	86
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	86
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	84
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	83
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	83
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	82
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	82
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	82
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	81
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	81
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	81
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	81
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	80
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	80
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	80
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.96	1,067	80
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	80
Andrew Hoffmann R 2023 · 5.37 FIP	23	SP	5.37	19.4%	10.8%	4.6%	.334	4.07	20.1%	10.3%	147	-1.30	3.17	421	79
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	129	20.7%	10.2%	1.23	4.73
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75