Juan Carela

P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	A+CWS	23	22	116	3.58	3.21	27.9%	8.8%	—	K 21.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.23
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	107	3.71	3.33	25.2%	9.9%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.41
2026	24	MIX3 levels	16	16	55	4.75	4.26	22.3%	11.2%	—	K 17.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	1	1	3	5.21	5.21	17.7%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBCWS	6	6	34	5.08	5.05	18.8%	11.2%	0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBCWS	8	8	46	5.03	5.03	19.1%	11.0%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNic Swanson (age 25) · Chase Solesky (age 25) · Josh Bostick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%17.7%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	12	8	32	164	30	29	1	67%	2.7	12.4%	22.1%	-9.7%	0.9%	7.59	5.32	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	12	8	32	164	30	29	1	67%	2.7	18.3%	17.7%	0.6%	0.6%	7.59	4.35	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	42	204	49	23	3	92%	3.5	17.0%	13.5%	3.5%	1.9%	6.38	4.42	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	42	204	49	23	3	92%	3.5	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	1.5%	6.38	3.34	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	463	131	52	9	91%	4.7	21.1%	13.1%	7.9%	2.4%	4.21	4.32	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	107	463	131	52	9	91%	4.7	28.3%	11.2%	17.1%	1.9%	4.21	3.20	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.0%	3.58	4.23	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	27.9%	8.8%	19.1%	2.5%	3.58	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.8%	3.71	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.8%	3.71	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	25.2%	9.9%	15.2%	2.0%	3.71	3.33	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	17.2%	12.2%	5.0%	3.7%	4.75	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	17.2%	12.2%	5.0%	3.7%	4.75	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	22.3%	11.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	17.7%	11.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.21	5.21	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	107	451	85	50	14	100%	5.9	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	3.2%	5.08	5.05	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	94	398	76	44	13	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.03	5.03	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	87	368	70	40	12	100%	5.8	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	3.3%	5.04	5.07	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	80	339	64	38	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.4%	5.12	5.18	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	73	307	57	35	11	100%	6.1	18.6%	11.4%	7.1%	3.6%	5.26	5.36	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	34	144	27	16	5	100%	5.7	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	3.2%	5.08	5.05	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	46	194	37	21	6	100%	5.8	19.1%	11.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.03	5.03	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	54	228	44	25	8	100%	6.0	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	3.3%	5.04	5.07	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	55	232	44	26	8	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.4%	5.12	5.18	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	54	228	42	26	8	100%	6.0	18.6%	11.4%	7.1%	3.6%	5.26	5.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	244	1028	194	115	35	100%	5.9	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.4%	5.11	4.77	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	94	29	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.4%	5.11	4.77	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		109	101	459	2013	388	255	53	93%	4.2	19.3%	12.6%	6.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.52	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	878	169	111	23	93%	4.2	19.3%	12.6%	6.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.52	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 38 IPFIP 4.96 → 5.88 (+0.92)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.14%	—	×0.810	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.100	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.96 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 13 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.00 (+0.62)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.64%	—	×0.770	17.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.150	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 74 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.28 (+1.11)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.30%	—	×0.770	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.97%	—	×1.150	11.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷0.817	×1.250	2.38%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 33 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.74 (+1.03)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.85%	—	×1.100	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.935	×1.200	3.89%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 116 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.23 (+1.02)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.93%	—	×0.770	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.83%	—	×1.150	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.017	×1.250	3.03%

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ATampa Tarpons · 79 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.65 (+1.19)K% 33.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.03%	—	×0.740	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.51%	—	×1.180	12.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷1.026	×1.300	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 28 IPFIP 5.08 → 6.04 (+0.95)K% 16.2% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.15%	—	×0.770	12.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.08%	—	×1.150	15.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.014	×1.250	3.79%

Result: FIP 5.08 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ATampa Tarpons · 20 IPFIP 4.91 → 6.13 (+1.22)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.740	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.180	18.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.42%

Result: FIP 4.91 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Carela (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.05	19.0%	7.9%	288	-0.16	—	—	—
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	85
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	82
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	82
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	81
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	81
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	80
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	80
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	80
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	80
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	80
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	80
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	18.6%	11.3%	1.28	5.12
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Victor Santos ('07)	3.0	86	15.6%	10.2%	1.29	5.21