Juan Carela
P
Winston-Salem Dash
+0.9
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.4 · 2028
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.2%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 12 | 8 | 32 | 164 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 12.4% | 22.1% | 0.9% | 7.59 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 12 | 11 | 42 | 204 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 17.0% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 6.38 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 21 | 107 | 463 | 131 | 52 | 9 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 23 | 22 | 116 | 487 | 136 | 43 | 12 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 23 | 23 | 107 | 453 | 114 | 45 | 9 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 102 | 46 | 14 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 116 | 48 | 15 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 124 | 50 | 16 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 127 | 51 | 17 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 126 | 51 | 17 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 123 | 50 | 17 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 118 | 49 | 17 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 511 | 113 | 48 | 16 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 107 | 47 | 16 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 111 | 469 | 101 | 46 | 16 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 94 | 44 | 16 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 87 | 43 | 15 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 80 | 41 | 15 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 85 | 404 | 1771 | 347 | 225 | 45 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 877 | 172 | 111 | 22 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Carela (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.39 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 384 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 94 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 93 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 92 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 92 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 90 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 89 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 88 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 88 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 87 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| Ariel Peña R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 87 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 87 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $12M | $61M | +$49M | ||