Juan Carela
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
K%20.1%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 12 | 8 | 32 | 164 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 67% | 2.7 | 12.4% | 22.1% | -9.7% | 0.9% | 7.59 | 5.32 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 12 | 8 | 32 | 164 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 67% | 2.7 | 18.3% | 17.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 7.59 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 42 | 204 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 92% | 3.5 | 17.0% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 6.38 | 4.42 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 42 | 204 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 92% | 3.5 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 6.38 | 3.34 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 107 | 463 | 131 | 52 | 9 | 91% | 4.7 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.29 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 107 | 463 | 131 | 52 | 9 | 91% | 4.7 | 28.3% | 11.2% | 17.1% | 1.9% | 4.21 | 3.20 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 23 | 22 | 116 | 487 | 136 | 43 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 23 | 22 | 116 | 487 | 136 | 43 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 27.9% | 8.8% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.21 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 107 | 453 | 114 | 45 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 3.71 | 4.73 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 107 | 453 | 114 | 45 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 3.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 7 | 7 | 21 | 83 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 17.4% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 3.92 | 3.00 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.85 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 85 | 357 | 77 | 37 | 9 | — | — | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 120 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 122 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 135 | 571 | 121 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 116 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 110 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 118 | 497 | 102 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 93 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 84 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 81 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 94 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 98 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 91 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 85 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 78 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 130 | 776 | 3276 | 675 | 330 | 113 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.54 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 85 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 92 | 424 | 1854 | 361 | 234 | 46 | 92% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 43 | 200 | 874 | 170 | 110 | 22 | 92% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Carela (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 20.1% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.62 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 410 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 88 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 86 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 86 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 85 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 85 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 84 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 84 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 82 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 82 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 82 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 82 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 82 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 82 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 81 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 81 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 321 | 81 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 81 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .314 | 3.66 | 24.1% | 18.0% | 182 | -0.56 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 81 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 80 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 126 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.81 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |