Lan-Hong Su

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 20 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1204ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX2 levels	17	16	48	5.10	3.92	28.4%	8.3%	—	K 20.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	20	MLBSD	—	—	0	4.61	4.61	22.0%	9.5%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	21	MLBSD	3	3	15	4.54	4.48	22.5%	8.9%	0.2
2029PROJ57% MLB	22	MLBSD	5	5	25	4.39	4.29	23.5%	8.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.1, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 86%

CompsRayner Urbaez (age 20) · Jonathan Stiever (age 21) · Carson Fulmer (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%22.0%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.5%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	48	204	58	17	8	94%	2.8	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	5.1%	5.10	5.47	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	48	204	58	17	8	94%	2.8	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	5.1%	5.10	5.47	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	48	204	58	17	8	94%	2.8	28.4%	8.3%	20.1%	3.9%	5.10	3.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.2%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	42	176	40	16	6	100%	5.2	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.44	+0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	44	187	44	16	6	100%	5.5	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	3.1%	4.35	4.25	+0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	45	192	46	15	6	100%	5.7	24.2%	7.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.21	4.11	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	45	192	47	15	6	100%	5.7	24.7%	7.7%	17.0%	3.0%	4.10	4.02	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	44	187	47	14	6	100%	5.5	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	3.0%	4.02	3.96	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	45	189	48	14	6	100%	6.4	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.0%	3.97	3.94	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	44	185	47	14	6	100%	6.3	25.3%	7.6%	17.7%	3.0%	3.98	3.98	+0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	3	3	15	63	14	6	2	100%	5.0	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.54	4.48	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	25	106	25	9	3	100%	5.0	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	3.2%	4.39	4.29	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	32	135	33	11	4	100%	5.3	24.2%	7.9%	16.3%	3.1%	4.25	4.15	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	36	152	38	12	5	100%	6.0	24.7%	7.7%	17.0%	3.1%	4.14	4.06	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	37	156	39	12	5	100%	6.2	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	3.1%	4.06	4.00	+0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	39	165	42	12	5	100%	6.5	25.3%	7.5%	17.8%	3.1%	4.01	3.98	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	39	165	42	13	5	100%	6.5	25.3%	7.6%	17.7%	3.1%	4.02	4.02	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	223	943	232	74	29	100%	5.6	24.6%	7.8%	16.8%	3.1%	4.15	3.72	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	208	66	26	100%	5.6	24.6%	7.8%	16.8%	3.1%	4.15	3.72	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		17	16	48	204	42	21	10	94%	2.8	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	5.1%	5.10	5.47	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	67	200	856	176	87	44	94%	2.8	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	5.1%	5.10	5.47	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 32 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.88 (+1.66)K% 30.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.15%	—	×0.740	22.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.62%	—	×1.180	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	5.15%	÷1.000	×1.300	6.69%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Padres · 16 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.66 (+1.37)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.250	14.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lan-Hong Su (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.26	23.4%	15.0%	131	-0.35	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	87
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	85
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	83
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.75	20.8%	10.0%	256	+0.76	3.99	383	83
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	80
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	79
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	79
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	79
Jeff Criswell R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	18.5%	9.2%	2.6%	.242	5.24	21.9%	11.8%	306	+1.10	4.14	352	78
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	78
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	78
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	78
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	77
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	77
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	42	24.2%	8.1%	1.18	4.20
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*