Jeff Criswell

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 236 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	AAACOL	29	26	121	7.51	6.02	23.7%	12.1%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.9% · FIP 5.96
2024	25	MIX2 levels	48	0	77	5.35	4.64	30.2%	9.6%	-0.1	K 27.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.60
2026	27	MIX4 levels	35	3	42	5.62	4.76	26.8%	11.5%	-0.1	K 23.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	16	0	17	4.40	4.45	24.7%	9.8%	0.0
2028PROJ79% MLB	29	MLBCOL	15	0	16	4.52	4.60	24.0%	10.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%90

FB Velo62

xwOBA vs20

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMayckol Guaipe (age 28) · Nelson Gonzalez (age 28) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.45

K%24.7%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p9039.0%

p9031.0%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	5	5	12	50	12	4	1	100%	2.4	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	2.6%	4.50	4.14	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	5	5	12	50	12	4	1	100%	2.4	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	2.0%	4.50	3.18	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	21	118	499	119	44	13	88%	4.9	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	4.0%	4.03	4.90	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	21	118	499	119	44	13	88%	4.9	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	2.6%	4.03	3.63	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	29	26	121	569	135	69	32	90%	4.2	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	5.8%	7.51	5.96	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	29	26	121	569	135	69	32	90%	4.2	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	5.6%	7.51	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	77	364	110	35	18	0%	1.6	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	4.8%	5.35	4.60	-0.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	77	364	110	35	18	0%	1.6	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	4.8%	5.35	4.60	-0.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	77	364	110	35	18	0%	1.6	30.2%	9.6%	20.6%	4.9%	5.35	4.64	-0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	3	42	183	49	21	8	9%	1.2	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	3.7%	5.62	4.49	+0.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	3	42	183	49	21	8	9%	1.2	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	3.7%	5.62	4.49	+0.0
2026	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	35	3	42	183	49	21	8	9%	1.2	26.8%	11.5%	15.3%	4.4%	5.62	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	0	24	105	30	12	6	0%	1.5	28.6%	11.4%	17.1%	5.7%	3.04	5.38	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	16	0	17	72	18	7	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	9.8%	14.9%	3.3%	4.40	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	20	0	21	87	21	9	3	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.0%	14.1%	3.4%	4.52	4.60	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	15	0	16	68	16	7	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.0%	14.1%	3.4%	4.52	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	40	174	46	19	8	0%	1.3	26.8%	10.9%	15.9%	4.8%	3.64	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		158	0	200	870	231	95	40	0%	1.3	26.8%	10.9%	15.9%	4.8%	3.64	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		141	55	370	1665	365	168	79	39%	2.6	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	4.7%	5.64	5.13	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	30	200	899	197	91	43	39%	2.6	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	4.7%	5.64	5.13	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 34 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.49 (+0.36)K% 27.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.860	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×0.900	10.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.72%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 58 IPFIP 4.53 → 4.78 (+0.25)K% 30.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.96%	—	×0.860	25.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×0.900	8.45%
HR / BF /BF	5.05%	÷1.096	×1.100	5.07%

Result: FIP 4.53 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 121 IPFIP 5.72 → 5.96 (+0.24)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.860	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.13%	—	×0.900	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	5.62%	÷1.062	×1.100	5.83%

Result: FIP 5.72 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 58 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.80 (+1.15)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.810	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.100	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.793	×1.200	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 59).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 50 IPFIP 3.70 → 5.02 (+1.32)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.29%	—	×0.770	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.78%	—	×1.150	10.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷0.944	×1.250	4.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 11 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.34 (+0.14)K% 9.5% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.52%	—	×0.880	8.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.050	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.075	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 12 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.14 (+0.95)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.61%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeff Criswell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	24.7%	9.8%	3.3%	—	4.60	24.0%	14.1%	21	+0.15	—	—	—
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	69
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	67
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	65
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	65
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	65
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	65
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	64
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.73	21.1%	13.3%	68	-1.06	3.52	619	64
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	64
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	64
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	64
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	64
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	63
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	477	62
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	62
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	62
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	62
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	62
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	25.9%	10.4%	1.63	3.96
Heath Hembree ('23)	1.8	51	25.4%	9.4%	1.67	4.37
Chasen Shreve ('24)	1.8	45	25.2%	10.8%	1.54	3.96
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*