Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 5 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.20 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 5 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.4 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 2.0% | 4.50 | 3.18 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 119 | 44 | 13 | 88% | 4.9 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 4.03 | 5.36 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 119 | 44 | 13 | 88% | 4.9 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 3.63 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 29 | 26 | 121 | 569 | 135 | 69 | 32 | 90% | 4.2 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.51 | 5.97 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 29 | 26 | 121 | 569 | 135 | 69 | 32 | 90% | 4.2 | 23.7% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 7.51 | 6.02 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 77 | 364 | 110 | 35 | 18 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.5% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 4.4% | 5.35 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 77 | 364 | 110 | 35 | 18 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.2% | 9.6% | 20.6% | 4.9% | 5.35 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 22 | 3 | 24 | 113 | 32 | 15 | 3 | 14% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 6.29 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 84 | 365 | 97 | 41 | 12 | — | — | 26.5% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 62 | 261 | 97 | 41 | 12 | — | — | 37.1% | 15.6% | 21.5% | 4.7% | 6.82 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 64 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 59 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 4.86 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 56 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 51 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 4.86 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 227 | 0 | 244 | 1034 | 262 | 108 | 39 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 4.46 | 4.37 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 215 | 89 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 4.46 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 128 | 55 | 353 | 1595 | 355 | 180 | 76 | 43% | 2.8 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 5.69 | 5.26 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 31 | 200 | 904 | 201 | 102 | 43 | 43% | 2.8 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 4.7% | 5.69 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeff Criswell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% | — | 4.81 | 24.6% | 14.2% | 171 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 73 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 72 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 72 |
| Dylan King R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 121 | 71 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 70 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 5.0% | .281 | 4.83 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 53 | -0.13 | 3.23 | 179 | 69 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 69 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 68 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 68 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 68 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 68 |
| Luke Farrell R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.61 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 25 | +0.35 | 3.84 | 584 | 67 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 67 |
| Jack Perkins R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 27.3% | 8.7% | 3.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 324 | 67 |
| Cory Abbott R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.95 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .300 | 5.28 | 22.6% | 11.7% | 151 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 703 | 67 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 67 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.68 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.84 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 49 | +2.16 | 2.81 | 426 | 66 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.20 | 2.97 | 280 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 58 | 24.9% | 10.4% | 1.45 | 4.65 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Heath Hembree ('22) | 7 | 45 | 25.6% | 9.4% | 1.58 | 4.22 |