Alexis Marinez

P DSL Tigers 2

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Tigers 1	14	1	20	8.85	7.28	25.0%	33.6%	—	K 17.0% · BB 42.0% · FIP 7.40
2026	20	ROKDSL Tigers 2	11	11	38	4.23	3.73	31.1%	17.7%	—	K 21.1% · BB 22.1% · FIP 5.52
2027PROJ	21	MLBDET	4	4	19	5.79	5.79	21.8%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBDET	4	4	18	5.40	5.24	22.9%	16.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSpencer Giesting (age 21) · Liam Sullivan (age 21) · Colby Langford (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%21.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	14	1	20	116	29	39	2	7%	1.5	17.0%	42.0%	-25.0%	0.8%	8.85	7.40	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	14	1	20	116	29	39	2	7%	1.5	17.0%	42.0%	-25.0%	0.8%	8.85	7.40	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	14	1	20	116	29	39	2	7%	1.5	25.0%	33.6%	-8.6%	1.7%	8.85	7.28	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	38	164	51	29	3	100%	3.5	21.1%	22.1%	-1.0%	2.6%	4.23	5.52	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	38	164	51	29	3	100%	3.5	21.1%	22.1%	-1.0%	2.6%	4.23	5.52	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	11	11	38	164	51	29	3	100%	3.5	31.1%	17.7%	13.4%	1.8%	4.23	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	DET	4	4	19	80	18	16	2	100%	4.8	21.8%	20.0%	1.8%	2.9%	5.79	5.79	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	36	153	35	25	4	100%	5.2	22.9%	16.6%	6.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.24	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	18	76	17	13	2	100%	4.5	22.9%	16.6%	6.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	75	17	13	2	100%	5.9	22.9%	16.6%	6.2%	2.9%	5.40	4.86	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	191	146	22	100%	5.1	22.9%	16.6%	6.2%	2.9%	5.40	4.86	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		25	12	59	280	54	85	5	48%	2.3	19.4%	30.4%	-10.9%	1.8%	5.83	6.30	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	41	200	955	185	290	17	48%	2.3	19.4%	30.4%	-10.9%	1.8%	5.83	6.30	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexis Marinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	21.8%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.24	22.9%	6.2%	36	-0.55	—	—	—
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	83
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	79
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	78
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	78
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	77
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	76
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	76
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	75
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	75
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	75
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	74
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	73
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	72
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	72
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	72
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	72
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	71
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	71
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	71
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.5%	17.8%	1.13	5.54
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*