Holden Laws
P
Everett AquaSox
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%21.7%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 9 | 5 | 11 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 56% | 1.3 | 12.0% | 2.5% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 4.76 | 5.41 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 9 | 5 | 11 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 56% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 4.76 | 4.07 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 11 | 6 | 26 | 115 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 55% | 2.4 | 17.7% | 5.4% | 12.3% | 1.2% | 5.54 | 2.96 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 11 | 6 | 26 | 115 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 55% | 2.4 | 26.1% | 4.3% | 21.7% | 0.9% | 5.54 | 1.87 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 5 | 28 | 127 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 45% | 2.6 | 19.3% | 15.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.08 | 6.69 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 5 | 28 | 127 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 45% | 2.6 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 5.08 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 158 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.24 | 6.52 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 34 | 158 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 36 | 0 | 52 | 239 | 66 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 36 | 0 | 52 | 239 | 66 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.6% | 5.4% | 22.2% | 2.1% | 5.19 | 2.56 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 191 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.66 | 4.57 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 191 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.66 | 4.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.11 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 77 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 133 | 16 | 198 | 881 | 155 | 89 | 33 | 12% | 1.5 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 16 | 200 | 888 | 157 | 89 | 33 | 12% | 1.5 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Holden Laws (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.49 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 28 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 85 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 82 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 81 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .288 | 3.75 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.61 | 3.02 | 409 | 81 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 81 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 80 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.49 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.30 | 4.19 | 151 | 80 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 80 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 80 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.40 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 142 | 80 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 80 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 79 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.72 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .259 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 30 | -0.87 | 1.71 | 206 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 1.15 | 4.46 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |