Ethan Young — OGILVIE

Ethan Young P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%23.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	10	31	150	38	17	3	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	10	31	150	38	17	3	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	10	10	31	150	38	17	3	100%	3.1	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	2.0%	7.26	3.49	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.1%	11.2%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	37	175	44	20	4	—	—	25.1%	11.4%	13.6%	2.1%	6.85	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	106	446	101	52	13	100%	5.6	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.68	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	134	567	132	62	17	100%	5.6	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	154	650	153	68	19	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.42	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	166	700	166	73	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.40	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	163	690	164	73	20	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	158	669	158	71	21	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.48	4.52	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	151	639	149	70	21	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.65	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	142	601	138	67	21	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	133	560	127	65	20	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.6%	4.91	5.03	-0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	123	518	115	62	20	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.9%	10.2%	3.9%	5.12	5.26	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	52	220	50	26	6	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.7%	4.56	4.57	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	94	397	92	44	11	100%	5.5	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.45	4.40	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	125	528	124	56	14	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.31	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	145	612	145	64	17	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.7%	4.32	4.29	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	148	625	148	66	17	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.8%	4.32	4.32	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	146	616	146	66	18	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.7%	13.0%	2.9%	4.36	4.40	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	141	595	139	65	18	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.53	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	133	562	129	63	18	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.70	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	126	532	120	61	18	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.77	4.89	-0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	117	494	110	59	18	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.9%	10.2%	3.6%	4.97	5.11	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	207	1226	5175	1202	568	154	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.16	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	93	25	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.16	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		10	10	31	150	28	20	4	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	968	181	129	25	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	23.3%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.52	23.2%	12.2%	394	-0.17	—	—	—
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	86
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	85
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	83
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	83
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	81
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.82	20.3%	9.4%	253	+0.83	3.99	380	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	136	23.2%	11.0%	1.22	4.62
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67