Ethan Young

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#644ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ASTL	10	10	31	7.26	3.55	25.3%	11.3%	—	K 18.7% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.03	5.03	21.1%	13.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	7	7	40	4.73	4.65	22.2%	12.1%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	11	11	66	4.57	4.50	22.8%	11.3%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 4.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsLevi Wells (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22) · Dinelson Lamet (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%21.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	10	31	150	38	17	3	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	10	31	150	38	17	3	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	—
2026	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	10	31	150	38	17	3	100%	3.1	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	2.0%	7.26	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	13.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.03	5.03	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	95	400	89	49	12	100%	5.6	22.2%	12.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.76	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	99	418	95	47	12	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.61	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	441	102	49	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.56	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	427	98	48	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	96	406	93	46	13	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	378	85	43	12	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.80	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	81	343	76	40	12	100%	5.8	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.4%	4.88	4.98	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	73	307	67	37	11	100%	6.1	21.9%	12.1%	9.7%	3.7%	5.06	5.18	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	37	21	5	100%	5.7	22.2%	12.1%	10.0%	2.7%	4.73	4.65	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	63	32	8	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	2.7%	4.57	4.50	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	81	39	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.7%	4.49	4.45	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	83	40	10	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	83	41	10	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.55	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	81	342	77	39	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.68	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	71	37	10	100%	6.2	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.85	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	68	287	63	35	10	100%	6.2	21.9%	12.1%	9.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	585	2469	558	284	72	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.62	4.26	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	97	25	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.62	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		10	10	31	150	28	20	4	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	968	181	129	25	100%	3.1	18.7%	13.4%	5.4%	2.6%	7.26	4.64	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 31 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.64 (+1.14)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.33%	—	×0.740	18.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.33%	—	×1.180	13.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.64	22.7%	11.1%	298	-0.39	—	—	—
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	85
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	83
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	82
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	82
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	81
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	80
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.96	23.4%	11.8%	227	-0.45	3.25	464	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	80
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	79
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	79
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	79
Tanner Burns R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	19.2%	12.8%	4.3%	.257	5.11	18.7%	6.1%	191	-0.33	4.34	382	78
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	78
Ryan Costeiu R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	20.5%	13.6%	2.3%	.208	4.91	18.4%	7.9%	241	+0.56	4.34	397	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	92	22.4%	11.7%	1.20	4.77
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*