Ethan Young — OGILVIE

Ethan Young P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%23.6%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	8	8	27	133	35	15	3	100%	3.4	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.9%	7.24	4.75	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	STL	12	12	65	274	65	31	8	100%	5.4	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.55	4.55	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.55	4.55	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	STL	—	—	92	407	100	46	11	—	—	24.5%	11.3%	13.3%	2.8%	5.35	4.61	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	STL	20	20	109	462	106	52	14	100%	5.5	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.56	4.58	+1.0
2028	24	MLB	STL	25	25	138	583	137	61	17	100%	5.5	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.44	+1.6
2029	25	MLB	STL	27	27	158	666	158	68	19	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.36	+1.9
2030	26	MLB	STL	28	28	170	717	172	72	21	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.36	4.34	+2.1
2031	27	MLB	STL	28	28	167	706	169	72	21	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+2.0
2032	28	MLB	STL	27	27	162	685	163	71	21	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.42	4.46	+1.8
2033	29	MLB	STL	26	26	155	654	154	69	21	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+1.5
2034	30	MLB	STL	24	24	146	615	143	67	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	+1.1
2035	31	MLB	STL	23	23	136	574	131	64	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.97	+0.7
2027	23	MLB	STL	10	10	54	228	52	25	7	100%	5.4	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	2.9%	4.56	4.58	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	STL	17	17	96	405	95	43	12	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.44	+1.0
2029	25	MLB	STL	22	22	128	540	128	55	16	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.36	+1.6
2030	26	MLB	STL	25	25	148	625	150	63	18	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.36	4.34	+1.8
2031	27	MLB	STL	25	25	151	638	153	65	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+1.8
2032	28	MLB	STL	25	25	149	629	150	65	19	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.42	4.46	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	STL	24	24	144	608	143	64	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+1.4
2034	30	MLB	STL	23	23	136	574	133	62	20	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	+1.0
2035	31	MLB	STL	22	22	129	545	124	61	20	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.97	+0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			192	192	1137	4800	1130	503	150	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.1%	3.1%	4.50	4.15	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	199	88	26	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.1%	3.1%	4.50	4.15	+2.9
Career	—			8	8	27	133	26	18	4	100%	3.4	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.9%	7.24	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—			59	59	200	973	190	130	29	100%	3.4	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	2.9%	7.24	4.75	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	23.6%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.45	23.4%	12.9%	405	-0.10	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	90
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	88
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	87
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	85
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	23.1%	10.8%	2.8%	.311	3.85	20.9%	11.1%	236	-0.19	3.12	482	84
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	84
Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	21.4%	10.8%	4.2%	.236	4.59	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.41	4.20	311	84
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	22	SP	3.61	22.5%	12.8%	1.4%	.286	3.29	24.5%	11.4%	79	-0.32	3.12	132	84
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	83
Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	83
George Klassen R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP	3.57	27.0%	13.6%	1.9%	.299	4.12	20.3%	8.0%	175	+0.55	3.57	268	82
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	82
Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	.315	5.46	17.4%	7.9%	75	+0.76	4.70	159	82
Will Sanders R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	82
Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	81
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.75	18.7%	6.9%	107	+1.87	3.88	192	81
Dinelson Lamet R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	81
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	141	23.5%	10.5%	1.20	4.51
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12