Ryan Costeiu
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.25
FIP5.25
K%18.9%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 18 | 74 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.5% | 9.1% | 19.4% | 5.7% | 3.57 | 5.00 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 18 | 74 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 41.9% | 6.8% | 35.1% | 4.1% | 3.57 | 2.65 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 16 | 10 | 68 | 275 | 81 | 19 | 7 | 62% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.42 | 4.97 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 16 | 10 | 68 | 275 | 81 | 19 | 7 | 62% | 4.3 | 29.5% | 6.9% | 22.5% | 2.5% | 3.42 | 2.90 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 74 | 305 | 80 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.5% | 13.6% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 3.03 | 4.48 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 74 | 305 | 80 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 26.2% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 2.3% | 3.03 | 3.58 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 20 | 119 | 522 | 128 | 55 | 15 | 77% | 4.6 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 20 | 119 | 522 | 128 | 55 | 15 | 77% | 4.6 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 3.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 16 | 16 | 71 | 319 | 81 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 6.37 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.25 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 135 | 593 | 133 | 62 | 20 | — | — | 22.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 5.83 | 5.02 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 60 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 60 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 58 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 131 | 551 | 109 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 12.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 4.76 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 104 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 12.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 65 | 350 | 1495 | 311 | 162 | 57 | 74% | 4.0 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.56 | 4.83 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 37 | 200 | 855 | 178 | 93 | 33 | 74% | 4.0 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.56 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Costeiu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.25 | 18.9% | 12.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.14 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 213 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 86 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 85 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 84 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 84 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 82 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 82 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.7% | .319 | 4.17 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 196 | -0.99 | 4.00 | 512 | 82 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 81 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 81 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 81 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 81 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 81 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 80 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.18 | 3.93 | 323 | 79 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 79 |
| Reid Johnston R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .256 | 5.86 | 17.2% | 2.4% | 31 | +0.96 | 3.72 | 234 | 79 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .290 | 5.09 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 58 | +0.63 | 3.39 | 236 | 78 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 373 | 78 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.24 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 4.0% | .286 | 5.57 | 15.9% | 5.7% | 51 | +0.33 | 3.81 | 527 | 78 |
| Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 71 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.23 | 5.16 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |