Ryan Costeiu — OGILVIE

Ryan Costeiu P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%18.9%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	18	74	31	5	3	0%	1.6	28.5%	9.1%	19.4%	5.9%	3.57	5.07	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	18	74	31	5	3	0%	1.6	41.9%	6.8%	35.1%	4.1%	3.57	2.65	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	10	68	275	81	19	7	62%	4.3	22.7%	7.9%	14.7%	3.9%	3.42	4.34	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	10	68	275	81	19	7	62%	4.3	29.5%	6.9%	22.5%	2.5%	3.42	2.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	74	305	80	35	7	100%	3.9	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	2.3%	3.03	4.35	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	74	305	80	35	7	100%	3.9	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	2.3%	3.03	4.35	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	74	305	80	35	7	100%	3.9	26.2%	11.5%	14.8%	2.3%	3.03	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	119	522	128	55	15	77%	4.6	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	4.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	119	522	128	55	15	77%	4.6	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	4.96	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	119	522	128	55	15	77%	4.6	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.9%	5.23	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	25	25	117	521	116	43	18	100%	4.7	18.1%	8.6%	9.5%	4.1%	6.02	4.91	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	25	25	117	521	116	43	18	100%	4.7	18.1%	8.6%	9.5%	4.1%	6.02	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	LAA	19	19	86	381	96	31	15	100%	4.5	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	3.9%	5.97	4.16	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	LAA	6	6	31	140	20	12	3	100%	5.1	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	2.1%	6.16	4.16	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	LAA	1	1	7	28	5	4	1	100%	6.6	18.9%	12.8%	6.0%	3.1%	5.24	5.24	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	123	549	121	47	19	—	—	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.4%	5.98	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	114	483	93	59	15	100%	6.0	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.12	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	475	93	57	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.07	5.09	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	109	461	90	55	15	100%	6.1	19.6%	12.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.09	5.13	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	104	440	85	53	15	100%	6.1	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	3.4%	5.17	5.24	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	98	414	79	51	15	100%	6.1	19.0%	12.4%	6.6%	3.6%	5.32	5.42	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	50	211	41	26	7	100%	6.2	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	71	300	59	36	9	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.07	5.09	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	82	346	68	41	11	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.0%	7.6%	3.3%	5.09	5.13	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	85	359	70	43	12	100%	6.1	19.4%	12.1%	7.3%	3.4%	5.17	5.24	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	84	355	67	44	13	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.4%	6.6%	3.6%	5.32	5.42	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	373	1576	305	191	53	100%	6.0	19.4%	12.1%	7.2%	3.3%	5.16	4.83	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	163	102	28	100%	6.0	19.4%	12.1%	7.2%	3.3%	5.16	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		97	74	396	1697	339	178	62	76%	4.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.74	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	858	172	90	31	76%	4.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.74	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Costeiu (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	18.9%	12.8%	3.1%	—	5.11	19.5%	7.4%	336	-0.13	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	86
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	85
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	85
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	85
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	84
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	83
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	83
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.70	18.8%	3.1%	77	+0.03	3.95	270	81
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	80
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	102	19.3%	12.2%	1.27	5.16
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78