Ryan Costeiu

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	19	19	74	3.03	3.58	26.2%	11.5%	—	K 20.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.35
2025	24	MIX2 levels	26	20	119	5.23	3.98	24.5%	10.5%	—	K 19.0% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.96
2026	25	MIX2 levels	27	27	122	6.11	4.25	21.7%	8.9%	—	K 17.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.86
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	1	1	2	5.22	5.22	17.1%	10.8%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBLAA	5	5	32	5.14	5.16	17.5%	10.6%	0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBLAA	8	8	45	5.13	5.17	17.8%	10.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsAlejandro Martinez (age 26) · Nick Pasquale (age 26) · Andrew Quezada (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%17.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	18	74	31	5	3	0%	1.6	28.5%	9.1%	19.4%	5.9%	3.57	5.07	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	18	74	31	5	3	0%	1.6	41.9%	6.8%	35.1%	4.1%	3.57	2.65	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	10	68	275	81	19	7	62%	4.3	22.7%	7.9%	14.7%	3.9%	3.42	4.34	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	16	10	68	275	81	19	7	62%	4.3	29.5%	6.9%	22.5%	2.5%	3.42	2.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	74	305	80	35	7	100%	3.9	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	2.3%	3.03	4.35	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	74	305	80	35	7	100%	3.9	20.5%	13.6%	6.9%	2.3%	3.03	4.35	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	74	305	80	35	7	100%	3.9	26.2%	11.5%	14.8%	2.3%	3.03	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	119	522	128	55	15	77%	4.6	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	4.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	119	522	128	55	15	77%	4.6	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	4.96	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	119	522	128	55	15	77%	4.6	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.9%	5.23	3.98	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	122	553	120	49	18	100%	4.5	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	3.9%	6.11	4.86	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	122	553	120	49	18	100%	4.5	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	3.9%	6.11	4.86	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	122	553	120	49	18	100%	4.5	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	3.3%	6.11	4.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	17.1%	10.8%	6.2%	3.3%	5.22	5.22	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	86	361	63	38	12	100%	6.1	17.5%	10.6%	6.9%	3.3%	5.14	5.16	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	75	317	56	33	11	100%	6.2	17.8%	10.5%	7.2%	3.4%	5.13	5.17	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	68	287	51	30	10	100%	6.2	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.19	5.26	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	61	258	45	28	10	100%	6.1	17.5%	10.8%	6.6%	3.7%	5.31	5.41	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	32	135	24	14	4	100%	6.4	17.5%	10.6%	6.9%	3.3%	5.14	5.16	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	45	190	34	20	6	100%	5.6	17.8%	10.5%	7.2%	3.4%	5.13	5.17	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	48	203	36	22	7	100%	6.0	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.19	5.26	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	48	203	35	22	7	100%	6.0	17.5%	10.8%	6.6%	3.7%	5.31	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	173	729	129	78	25	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.7%	7.0%	3.5%	5.20	4.88	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	90	29	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.7%	7.0%	3.5%	5.20	4.88	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		99	76	401	1729	343	183	62	77%	4.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	3.6%	4.71	4.73	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	862	171	91	31	77%	4.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	3.6%	4.71	4.73	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 86 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.10 (+0.94)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.20%	—	×0.810	20.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.14%	—	×1.100	8.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.94%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 36 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.33 (+0.13)K% 14.0% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.95%	—	×0.860	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.47%	—	×0.900	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.92%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 105 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.70 (+1.03)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.84%	—	×0.770	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.67%	—	×1.150	11.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 14 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.73 (+0.98)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.39%	—	×0.810	18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.42%	—	×1.100	18.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.48%	÷1.028	×1.200	5.23%

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 73 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.35 (+1.08)K% 26.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.60%	—	×0.770	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.78%	—	×1.150	13.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷0.916	×1.250	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 68 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.34 (+1.45)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.45%	—	×0.770	22.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.91%	—	×1.150	7.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷0.814	×1.250	3.91%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AInland Empire 66ers · 15 IPFIP 3.36 → 5.07 (+1.71)K% 38.5% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.740	28.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.023	×1.300	5.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Costeiu (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	17.1%	10.8%	3.3%	—	5.19	17.7%	7.1%	228	-0.03	—	—	—
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	85
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	84
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	81
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	81
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	81
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	80
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	80
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	80
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	80
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	79
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	79
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	79
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	74	17.5%	10.7%	1.32	5.19
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Manny Aybar ('05)	2.0	65	15.6%	9.8%	1.13	5.11
Brian Tallet ('11)	2.3	92	16.5%	10.4%	1.13	4.79
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*