Mason Peters — OGILVIE

Mason Peters P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 22 LHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%24.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	18	18	64	254	87	19	6	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	18	18	64	254	87	19	6	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SEA	14	14	50	194	68	12	3	100%	3.6	35.1%	6.2%	28.9%	1.5%	1.43	1.77	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	SEA	4	4	14	60	19	7	3	100%	3.5	31.7%	11.7%	20.0%	5.0%	4.50	4.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	65	276	70	25	8	100%	5.5	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	3.0%	4.19	4.14	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	67	283	72	25	8	100%	5.6	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.06	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	68	286	74	25	8	100%	5.6	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	2.9%	4.06	4.02	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	68	286	74	25	8	100%	6.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.9%	4.03	4.00	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	67	282	73	25	8	100%	6.1	26.0%	8.9%	17.1%	3.0%	4.04	4.04	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	65	274	71	25	8	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.1%	4.09	4.13	+0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	32	135	34	12	4	100%	5.3	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.10	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	47	198	51	18	6	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	2.9%	4.08	4.02	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	55	232	60	20	7	100%	6.1	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	2.9%	4.02	3.98	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	59	249	65	22	7	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.9%	3.99	3.96	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	66	22	7	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.9%	17.1%	2.9%	4.00	4.00	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	66	23	8	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.0%	4.05	4.09	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	313	1322	341	118	38	100%	5.8	25.8%	8.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.04	3.64	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	218	75	24	100%	5.8	25.8%	8.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.04	3.64	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		18	18	64	254	65	22	8	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	56	200	790	202	69	24	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Peters (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	24.6%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.07	25.6%	16.6%	200	-0.20	—	—	—
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	83
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	80
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	80
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	78
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	77
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	77
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	77
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	76
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.28	19.7%	10.4%	353	+1.17	3.11	411	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	75
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	75
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	74
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	73
Mitch Bratt L 2023 · 3.89 FIP	20	SP	3.89	21.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.321	3.81	20.7%	13.5%	335	-0.08	3.44	476	72
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	72
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	72
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	25.7%	9.0%	1.15	4.10
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58