Mason Peters

P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#969ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	18	18	64	2.10	2.49	34.3%	7.5%	—	K 25.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.70
2027PROJ	23	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.19	4.19	25.3%	9.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSEA	5	5	26	4.11	4.07	25.7%	9.0%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSEA	7	7	39	4.07	4.03	25.9%	8.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 85%

CompsT.J. Sikkema (age 24) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23) · Evan Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%25.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%16.0%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	64	254	87	19	6	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	64	254	87	19	6	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	64	254	87	19	6	100%	3.6	34.3%	7.5%	26.8%	2.4%	2.10	2.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	62	260	67	23	8	100%	5.6	25.7%	9.0%	16.6%	3.0%	4.15	4.11	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	59	251	65	22	8	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.07	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	59	251	65	22	8	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.9%	17.1%	3.0%	4.08	4.06	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	58	245	63	22	7	100%	5.8	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.0%	4.10	4.10	+0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	26	110	28	10	3	100%	5.2	25.7%	9.0%	16.6%	2.9%	4.11	4.07	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	39	165	43	15	5	100%	5.6	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	2.9%	4.07	4.03	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	47	198	51	18	6	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.9%	17.1%	2.9%	4.04	4.02	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	50	211	55	19	6	100%	6.2	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.0%	4.06	4.06	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	162	685	177	61	20	100%	5.8	25.9%	8.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.06	3.66	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	218	75	25	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.06	3.66	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		18	18	64	254	65	22	8	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	56	200	790	202	69	24	100%	3.6	25.6%	8.7%	16.8%	3.0%	2.10	3.70	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 50 IPFIP 1.77 → 2.94 (+1.17)K% 35.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.05%	—	×0.740	25.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.180	7.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.77 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 14 IPFIP 4.65 → 6.17 (+1.52)K% 31.7% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.67%	—	×0.770	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.67%	—	×1.150	13.42%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 6.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Peters (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.08	25.8%	16.9%	180	-0.11	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	87
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	83
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	81
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	81
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	81
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	78
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	77
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	77
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	76
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	76
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	75
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	75
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	75
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	74
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	74
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	73
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	72
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	25.7%	9.0%	1.17	4.13
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Bob James ('78-'87, 4 WAR*)	2.0	68	26.3%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.04*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*