Kelvin Zapata
P
DSL Orioles Black
Age 18
LHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 122
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%22.9%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 39 | 177 | 48 | 39 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.4% | 27.5% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 4.62 | 5.03 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 11 | 39 | 177 | 48 | 39 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 27.1% | 22.0% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 4.62 | 3.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 6 | 6 | 24 | 98 | 34 | 14 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.6% | 17.9% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 3.04 | 3.37 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 23 | 98 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.54 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 47 | 196 | 56 | 25 | 3 | — | — | 28.8% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 3.78 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 24 | 103 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 3.99 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 83 | 17 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 17 | 63 | 275 | 56 | 66 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 20.3% | 24.1% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 4.44 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 54 | 200 | 878 | 178 | 211 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 20.3% | 24.1% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kelvin Zapata (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.37 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 24 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.82 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.26 | 14.3% | -0.5% | 78 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 143 | 87 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.19 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.14 | 3.19 | 435 | 85 |
| Cam Caminiti L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.26 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .320 | 4.10 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 68 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 138 | 84 |
| Jordan Woods L 2028 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 83 |
| Francis Texido L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.92 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .260 | 5.62 | 15.6% | -3.7% | 258 | +1.70 | 3.92 | 309 | 81 |
| Jay Groome L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.20 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 420 | 81 |
| Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.85 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 5.34 | 15.2% | 0.6% | 98 | +1.49 | 2.29 | 261 | 80 |
| Jesus Gomez L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 18 | SP | 5.12 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .275 | 4.31 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 23 | -0.81 | 4.22 | 121 | 80 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.37 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 6.27 | 20.7% | 0.6% | 223 | +1.90 | 4.37 | 280 | 80 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.75 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.09 | 3.04 | 330 | 79 |
| Jacob Bresnahan L 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.01 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 153 | -1.29 | 2.97 | 222 | 78 |
| Mitch Bratt L 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.54 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 294 | -0.05 | 3.08 | 427 | 78 |
| Blake Townsend L 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 76 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2029 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.10 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.22 | 3.63 | 362 | 76 |
| Yereny Teus L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.49 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 0.9% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 122 | +0.22 | 2.98 | 166 | 76 |
| Sam Hentges L 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.91 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.43 | 2.22 | 594 | 76 |
| Lachlan Wells L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.18 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .256 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 153 | +0.07 | 3.21 | 335 | 76 |
| Deyer Zapata L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.37 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .309 | 5.40 | 17.5% | 4.0% | 50 | +1.03 | 3.61 | 130 | 76 |
| Eduar Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.00 | 16.6% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .333 | 4.54 | 12.9% | 1.7% | 40 | +0.54 | 4.00 | 124 | 75 |
| Julio Mendez L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 17 | SP | 3.81 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.69 | 16.3% | 3.1% | 155 | +0.88 | 3.81 | 252 | 75 |