Eduar Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Eduar Gonzalez P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 155 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%18.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	15	0	36	162	33	16	2	0%	2.4	13.9%	12.3%	1.5%	1.6%	6.00	4.37	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	15	0	36	162	33	16	2	0%	2.4	13.9%	12.3%	1.5%	1.6%	6.00	4.37	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	15	0	36	162	33	16	2	0%	2.4	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	1.2%	6.00	3.32	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	12	11	48	209	51	18	2	92%	4.0	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	1.5%	3.78	3.89	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	12	11	48	209	51	18	2	92%	4.0	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	1.5%	3.78	3.89	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	12	11	48	209	51	18	2	92%	4.0	24.4%	8.6%	15.8%	1.0%	3.78	2.64	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	10	1	29	129	23	10	2	10%	2.9	12.1%	9.7%	2.4%	2.0%	3.99	4.41	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	10	1	29	129	23	10	2	10%	2.9	12.1%	9.7%	2.4%	2.0%	3.99	4.41	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	10	1	29	129	23	10	2	10%	2.9	17.8%	7.8%	10.1%	1.6%	3.99	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	7	0	12	65	12	10	1	0%	1.7	15.1%	15.3%	-0.2%	2.4%	8.25	5.09	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	7	0	12	65	12	10	1	0%	1.7	15.1%	15.3%	-0.2%	2.4%	8.25	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	TOR	1	0	1	11	1	3	0	0%	1.0	9.1%	27.3%	-18.2%	0.0%	36.00	5.79	—
2026	20	A RAW	TOR	6	0	11	54	11	7	1	0%	1.8	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	1.9%	5.73	4.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	43	0	45	190	38	18	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	45	0	47	199	42	18	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.48	4.37	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	47	0	49	207	46	18	6	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	2.8%	4.33	4.23	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	50	212	48	18	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.4%	14.2%	2.8%	4.22	4.14	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	51	214	49	18	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.2%	14.7%	2.7%	4.14	4.09	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	51	214	50	18	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.2%	15.0%	2.7%	4.09	4.06	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	50	211	49	17	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	2.8%	4.10	4.10	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	TOR	21	0	22	93	18	9	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	32	0	34	144	30	13	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.48	4.37	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	39	0	41	173	38	15	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	2.8%	4.33	4.23	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	43	0	45	190	43	16	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.4%	14.2%	2.8%	4.22	4.14	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	45	0	47	198	46	16	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.2%	14.7%	2.7%	4.14	4.09	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	45	0	47	198	46	16	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.2%	15.0%	2.7%	4.09	4.06	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	46	0	48	203	47	17	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	2.8%	4.10	4.10	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		271	0	284	1199	268	102	33	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.25	3.81	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	72	23	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.25	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		44	12	125	565	83	65	10	27%	2.8	14.6%	11.5%	3.1%	1.8%	4.90	4.28	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	19	200	904	132	104	16	27%	2.8	14.6%	11.5%	3.1%	1.8%	4.90	4.28	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eduar Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	18.6%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.39	21.1%	12.0%	141	-0.41	—	—	—
Francisco Villegas L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	19	SW	4.55	17.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.256	5.85	17.9%	3.1%	59	+1.30	4.55	131	83
Ivan Andueza L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	20	SW	3.80	15.0%	9.4%	1.4%	.304	4.44	11.8%	0.2%	104	+0.64	3.80	151	80
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.30	335	80
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	79
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	79
Rovaldis Cabrera L 2019 · 5.41 FIP	19	SW	5.41	16.0%	10.1%	4.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	127	79
Cameron Ming L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	22	SU	3.80	17.7%	7.1%	2.4%	.308	5.54	14.3%	4.9%	49	+1.74	3.80	111	79
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	78
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	78
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	78
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	77
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	77
Kevin Escorcia L 2015 · 5.63 FIP	20	SW	5.63	14.3%	10.8%	4.3%	.394	3.59	22.4%	8.2%	118	-2.04	3.16	189	76
Darwin Rodriguez L 2023 · 5.77 FIP	20	SW	5.77	13.6%	9.1%	4.9%	.355	3.72	17.5%	8.7%	201	-2.05	3.03	226	76
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	76
Luis Viloria L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	19	SW	4.18	14.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.255	4.83	22.6%	4.3%	39	+0.65	3.16	101	76
Johnathan Frebis L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	17.0%	9.4%	1.8%	.245	4.24	9.7%	-0.6%	124	+0.43	3.81	146	75
Zach Matson L 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	14.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.319	4.72	25.2%	10.0%	68	+0.33	4.39	187	75
Joey Marciano L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	15.1%	11.8%	1.2%	.266	4.99	16.3%	6.1%	153	+1.02	3.65	330	75
Franderly Morel L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	19	SU	4.00	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.317	5.53	19.4%	6.7%	86	+1.53	3.80	120	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	46	22.0%	8.7%	1.08	4.31
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68