Franderly Morel — OGILVIE

Franderly Morel P ACL Dodgers

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.3%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	18	1	34	148	30	12	2	6%	1.9	13.8%	10.1%	3.6%	1.4%	3.97	4.00	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	18	1	34	148	30	12	2	6%	1.9	13.8%	10.1%	3.6%	1.4%	3.97	4.00	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	18	1	34	148	30	12	2	6%	1.9	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	1.4%	3.97	3.16	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	24	107	41	15	1	0%	1.5	26.1%	17.5%	8.5%	1.2%	2.59	3.80	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	24	107	41	15	1	0%	1.5	26.1%	17.5%	8.5%	1.2%	2.59	3.80	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	24	107	41	15	1	0%	1.5	38.3%	14.0%	24.3%	0.9%	2.59	2.11	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	18	0	33	152	39	12	2	0%	1.8	17.4%	9.9%	7.6%	1.8%	3.55	3.88	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	18	0	33	152	39	12	2	0%	1.8	17.4%	9.9%	7.6%	1.8%	3.55	3.88	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	18	0	33	152	39	12	2	0%	1.8	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	1.3%	3.55	2.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	19	0	29	136	32	13	10	0%	1.5	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	10.3%	8.48	8.91	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	19	0	29	136	32	13	10	0%	1.5	16.0%	11.9%	4.1%	10.3%	8.48	8.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	LAD	19	0	29	136	32	13	10	0%	1.5	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	7.4%	8.48	6.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	29	0	31	130	29	13	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	7	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.10	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	92	26	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.56	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		71	1	120	543	97	65	20	1%	1.7	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	3.7%	4.65	5.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	2	200	905	161	108	34	1%	1.7	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	3.7%	4.65	5.16	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Franderly Morel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.3%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.48	22.2%	12.0%	31	-0.23	—	—	—
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	86
Zach Morris L 2015 · 3.59 FIP	22	SU	3.59	18.5%	10.1%	1.4%	.286	4.38	13.9%	2.4%	84	+0.79	3.34	109	86
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	85
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	84
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.72	16.6%	7.5%	223	+0.24	3.71	420	83
Luis Paulino L 2019 · 3.54 FIP	21	SU	3.54	19.1%	10.5%	1.3%	.269	2.75	20.2%	9.5%	50	-0.79	2.57	103	83
Johnathan Frebis L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	17.0%	9.4%	1.8%	.245	4.24	9.7%	-0.6%	124	+0.43	3.81	146	83
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	82
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	82
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	82
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	82
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	82
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	82
James Ziemba L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	22	SU	3.73	18.3%	12.5%	1.1%	.309	5.16	11.7%	-0.7%	78	+1.43	3.73	110	81
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	81
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Jared Lakind L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	23	SU	3.68	16.7%	9.8%	1.4%	.316	3.81	17.7%	7.2%	119	+0.13	3.66	138	81
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	80
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	80
Ryne Slack L 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	18.8%	9.0%	2.6%	.293	5.00	15.4%	2.5%	142	+0.93	4.07	212	80