Chase Watkins
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%12.5%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 20 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 25 | 2 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 25 | 3 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 3.47 | 3.74 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 0 | 33 | 149 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 5.23 | 6.31 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 34 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 3.46 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 32 | 2 | 71 | 291 | 68 | 19 | 4 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 2.65 | 3.29 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 4 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 69 | 292 | 61 | 22 | 8 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 4 | 234 | 998 | 197 | 91 | 25 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.42 | 3.97 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 3 | 200 | 852 | 168 | 78 | 21 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.42 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Watkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.33 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 180 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 93 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 88 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 88 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 88 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 88 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 87 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 87 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 86 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .240 | 3.29 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.21 | 2.82 | 414 | 85 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.15 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 1.0% | .316 | 4.60 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 305 | +1.45 | 3.15 | 430 | 85 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 85 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 85 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 85 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 85 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 85 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 85 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 84 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .270 | 4.47 | 13.1% | 4.3% | 91 | +0.99 | 3.48 | 223 | 84 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 84 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||