Chase Watkins — OGILVIE

Chase Watkins P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%17.1%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	5	0	11	47	20	2	0	0%	2.3	42.6%	4.3%	38.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.05	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	5	0	11	47	20	2	0	0%	2.3	42.6%	4.3%	38.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.10	—
2022	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	25	2	57	251	70	25	3	8%	2.3	20.6%	11.8%	8.9%	1.6%	3.47	3.75	—
2022	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	25	2	57	251	70	25	3	8%	2.3	27.9%	10.0%	17.9%	1.2%	3.47	2.64	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	0	33	149	32	15	8	0%	1.6	16.5%	11.6%	5.0%	5.6%	5.23	6.25	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	0	33	149	32	15	8	0%	1.6	16.5%	11.6%	5.0%	5.6%	5.23	6.25	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	21	0	33	149	32	15	8	0%	1.6	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	5.4%	5.23	5.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	227	55	19	5	0%	1.6	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.1%	3.46	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	227	55	19	5	0%	1.6	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.1%	3.46	4.52	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	55	227	55	19	5	0%	1.6	24.2%	8.4%	15.9%	2.2%	3.46	3.32	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	71	291	68	19	4	6%	2.2	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%	1.7%	2.65	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	71	291	68	19	4	6%	2.2	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%	1.7%	2.65	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	2	71	291	68	19	4	6%	2.2	23.4%	6.5%	16.8%	1.4%	2.65	2.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	12	0	19	88	19	4	4	0%	1.6	17.5%	5.0%	12.5%	5.5%	7.11	5.25	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	12	0	19	88	19	4	4	0%	1.6	17.5%	5.0%	12.5%	5.5%	7.11	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	12	0	19	88	19	4	4	0%	1.6	21.6%	4.5%	17.0%	4.5%	7.11	4.35	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	17.1%	7.5%	9.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	25	115	24	6	5	—	—	20.5%	5.2%	15.3%	4.1%	6.46	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	66	0	69	291	51	23	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	7.8%	9.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.52	+0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	64	0	67	282	51	23	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	61	0	64	270	49	22	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.64	4.71	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	19	9	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	7.8%	9.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.52	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	38	0	40	169	30	14	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	43	0	45	190	34	16	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.64	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	84	38	14	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.1%	9.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.24	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	68	25	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.1%	9.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		129	4	246	1053	205	94	29	3%	1.9	19.5%	8.9%	10.5%	2.8%	3.66	4.11	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	3	200	856	167	76	24	3%	1.9	19.5%	8.9%	10.5%	2.8%	3.66	4.11	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Watkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	17.1%	7.5%	2.8%	—	4.60	17.9%	9.9%	200	+0.10	—	—	—
Patrick McCoy L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.336	4.28	15.4%	1.6%	44	+0.47	3.81	113	86
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	85
Scott Alexander L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	17.6%	6.7%	1.9%	.240	3.30	19.9%	10.8%	184	-0.21	2.90	426	84
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	84
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	84
Nolan Becker L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	13.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.313	5.41	18.9%	14.6%	13	+1.24	3.71	105	84
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	84
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	83
Mac Lardner L 2023 · 3.66 FIP	25	SU	3.66	17.5%	9.4%	1.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	186	82
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	82
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	82
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	82
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	81
Jeremy Bleich L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	14.3%	6.3%	1.2%	.291	3.67	16.5%	10.2%	155	+0.35	3.20	241	81
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	81
Cam Alldred L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	19.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.318	4.56	18.0%	8.6%	140	+0.86	3.70	332	80
David Speer L 2019 · 4.06 FIP	26	SU	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	2.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	293	80
Brady Feigl L 2017 · 3.67 FIP	26	SU	3.67	17.8%	6.8%	2.2%	.366	2.94	17.0%	11.5%	80	-0.73	2.69	212	80
Colton Turner L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	19.6%	5.4%	2.6%	.311	3.84	21.9%	13.0%	158	+0.29	2.79	325	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.7%	7.9%	1.12	4.55
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97