Chase Watkins
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 42.6% | 4.3% | 38.3% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 0.05 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 5 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.3 | 42.6% | 4.3% | 38.3% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 0.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 25 | 2 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 25 | 3 | 8% | 2.3 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 3.47 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 25 | 2 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 25 | 3 | 8% | 2.3 | 27.9% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 1.2% | 3.47 | 2.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 0 | 33 | 149 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.23 | 5.81 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 0 | 33 | 149 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 5.23 | 5.70 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 3.46 | 4.70 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 2 | 71 | 291 | 68 | 19 | 4 | 6% | 2.2 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 2.65 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 2 | 71 | 291 | 68 | 19 | 4 | 6% | 2.2 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 2.65 | 2.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 12 | 0 | 19 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.5% | 5.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 7.11 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 89 | 384 | 69 | 26 | 12 | — | — | 18.1% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 49 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 85 | 38 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.23 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 68 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 4 | 246 | 1053 | 205 | 94 | 29 | 3% | 1.9 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 4.09 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 3 | 200 | 856 | 167 | 76 | 23 | 3% | 1.9 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Watkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.59 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 200 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .336 | 4.17 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.45 | 3.72 | 113 | 85 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.49 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.30 | 4.19 | 151 | 84 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 84 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .269 | 3.89 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.18 | 3.86 | 161 | 84 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.38 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .240 | 3.32 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.06 | 2.90 | 414 | 84 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 84 |
| Nolan Becker L 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.10 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .313 | 6.80 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13 | +2.70 | 3.71 | 105 | 83 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 83 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 82 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 82 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.42 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 1.4% | .291 | 3.63 | 16.5% | 10.2% | 155 | +0.21 | 3.21 | 241 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 82 |
| Mac Lardner L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.54 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 186 | 81 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 81 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 81 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .311 | 3.61 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 158 | +0.15 | 2.83 | 325 | 80 |
| Brady Feigl L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .366 | 2.94 | 17.0% | 11.5% | 80 | -0.68 | 2.69 | 212 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 1.12 | 4.54 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |