Scott Alexander — OGILVIE

Scott Alexander P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 37 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 131

ERA4.78

FIP5.13

K%14.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p109.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.437

SI (65%)

CH (14%)

SL-2.3 (21%)

FB-5.7 (65%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	69	275	53	19	5	0%	1.5	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	1.9%	2.73	3.51	+0.9
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	69	275	53	19	5	0%	1.5	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	1.8%	2.73	3.33	+1.0
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	2	56	248	52	18	3	5%	1.3	17.3%	7.7%	9.7%	1.5%	3.36	3.42	+0.8
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	2	56	248	52	18	3	5%	1.3	21.0%	7.3%	13.7%	1.2%	3.36	2.90	+1.1
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	77	317	63	31	4	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.9%	11.0%	1.1%	2.70	3.22	+1.2
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	77	317	63	31	4	0%	1.2	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	1.3%	2.70	3.35	+1.1
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	77	1	70	285	61	26	4	1%	0.9	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	1.4%	3.47	3.30	+1.0
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	77	1	70	285	61	26	4	1%	0.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	1.4%	3.47	3.21	+1.1
2019	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	0	17	76	9	5	2	0%	0.6	11.8%	6.6%	5.3%	2.5%	3.63	4.32	+0.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	0	17	76	9	5	2	0%	0.6	11.8%	6.6%	5.3%	2.6%	3.63	4.43	+0.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	13	0	12	52	9	8	2	0%	0.9	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	3.7%	2.92	5.61	-0.2
2020	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	13	0	12	52	9	8	2	0%	0.9	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	3.8%	2.92	5.69	-0.2
2021	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	21	87	13	3	2	0%	0.9	11.9%	4.5%	7.5%	2.9%	2.57	4.23	+0.1
2021	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	21	87	13	3	2	0%	0.9	14.9%	3.4%	11.5%	2.3%	2.57	3.53	+0.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	5	31	114	23	5	1	17%	1.0	15.9%	1.6%	14.3%	1.7%	0.87	2.90	+0.6
2022	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	5	31	114	23	5	1	17%	1.0	20.2%	4.4%	15.8%	0.9%	0.87	2.52	+0.8
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	8	49	212	32	9	2	14%	0.9	14.9%	3.8%	11.1%	1.0%	4.56	2.90	+1.0
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	8	49	212	32	9	2	14%	0.9	14.9%	3.8%	11.1%	1.0%	4.56	2.90	+1.0
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	8	49	212	32	9	2	14%	0.9	15.1%	4.2%	10.8%	0.9%	4.56	2.88	+1.0
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	43	184	39	9	3	2%	0.8	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	2.1%	3.32	3.23	+0.7
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	43	184	39	9	3	2%	0.8	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	2.1%	3.32	3.23	+0.7
2024	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	1	43	184	39	9	3	2%	0.8	21.2%	4.9%	16.3%	1.6%	3.32	2.82	+0.9
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	23	112	11	11	6	0%	0.8	9.9%	11.1%	-1.2%	6.7%	7.83	7.34	-0.7
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	23	112	11	11	6	0%	0.8	9.9%	11.1%	-1.2%	6.7%	7.83	7.34	-0.7
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	23	112	11	11	6	0%	0.8	9.8%	9.8%	0.0%	5.4%	7.83	6.97	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			349	13	327	1367	240	105	25	4%	0.9	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.59	+3.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	37	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	13	1	13	56	10	6	0	8%	1.0	14.1%	10.2%	3.9%	0.0%	1.42	3.20	—
YTD	37	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	13	1	13	56	10	6	0	8%	1.0	14.1%	10.2%	3.9%	0.0%	1.42	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	37	ROK RAW	KC	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	37	AAA RAW	KC	12	0	12	53	9	6	0	0%	1.0	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	0.0%	1.54	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	KC	43	0	45	191	26	17	7	0%	1.1	13.4%	8.8%	4.5%	3.8%	5.25	5.56	-0.5
2028	39	MLB MLE	KC	37	0	39	165	20	16	7	0%	1.1	12.2%	9.6%	2.6%	4.3%	5.70	5.99	-0.6
2027	38	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.4%	8.8%	4.5%	3.8%	5.25	5.56	—
2028	39	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.2%	9.6%	2.6%	4.3%	5.70	5.99	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		349	13	327	1367	240	105	25	4%	0.9	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.59	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		213	8	200	836	147	64	15	4%	0.9	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		474	18	482	2018	350	150	38	4%	1.0	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.9%	3.27	3.62	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	7	200	837	145	62	16	4%	1.0	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	1.9%	3.27	3.62	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Scott Alexander (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	14.5%	8.2%	3.4%	—	5.76	12.8%	3.6%	84	+0.63	—	—	—
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	68
Craig Breslow L 2018 · 5.13 FIP	37	SU	5.13	17.8%	15.1%	2.9%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	159	67
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	39
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	38
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	38
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	38
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	37
Santiago Casilla R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	37	SU	4.13	22.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.289	4.14	16.8%	1.6%	44	+0.01	3.50	219	37
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	37
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	36
Felipe Paulino R 2019 · 5.82 FIP	35	SU	5.82	19.2%	9.4%	5.7%	.385	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	150	36
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	35
Oscar Villarreal R 2017 · 5.36 FIP	35	SU	5.36	8.7%	8.6%	3.5%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	135	35
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	35
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	34
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	32
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	32
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	32
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	21
Edinson Volquez R 2019 · 6.11 FIP	36	SW	6.11	13.3%	16.0%	3.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	498	20

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	13.5%	8.8%	1.45	5.20
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78