Scott Alexander

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 38 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	MIX3 levels	51	1	43	3.32	2.82	21.2%	4.9%	0.9	K 19.4% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.23
2025	36	MIX2 levels	28	0	23	7.83	6.97	9.8%	9.8%	-0.6	K 9.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 7.34
2026	37	MIX2 levels	15	1	14	1.93	2.81	21.5%	12.3%	—	K 18.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.05
2027PROJ	38	MLBKC	5	0	5	4.77	5.17	15.4%	10.4%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.27	5.60	14.3%	11.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 38) · Zack Segovia (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA4.77

FIP5.17

K%15.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p109.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.437

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	69	275	53	19	5	0%	1.5	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	1.9%	2.73	3.51	+0.9
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	69	275	53	19	5	0%	1.5	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	1.8%	2.73	3.33	+1.0
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	2	56	248	52	18	3	5%	1.3	17.3%	7.7%	9.7%	1.5%	3.36	3.42	+0.8
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	2	56	248	52	18	3	5%	1.3	21.0%	7.3%	13.7%	1.2%	3.36	2.90	+1.1
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	77	317	63	31	4	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.9%	11.0%	1.1%	2.70	3.22	+1.2
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	77	317	63	31	4	0%	1.2	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	1.3%	2.70	3.35	+1.1
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	77	1	70	285	61	26	4	1%	0.9	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	1.4%	3.47	3.30	+1.0
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	77	1	70	285	61	26	4	1%	0.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	1.4%	3.47	3.21	+1.1
2019	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	0	17	76	9	5	2	0%	0.6	11.8%	6.6%	5.3%	2.5%	3.63	4.32	+0.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	0	17	76	9	5	2	0%	0.6	11.8%	6.6%	5.3%	2.6%	3.63	4.43	+0.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	13	0	12	52	9	8	2	0%	0.9	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	3.7%	2.92	5.61	-0.2
2020	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	13	0	12	52	9	8	2	0%	0.9	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	3.8%	2.92	5.69	-0.2
2021	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	21	87	13	3	2	0%	0.9	11.9%	4.5%	7.5%	2.9%	2.57	4.23	+0.1
2021	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	21	87	13	3	2	0%	0.9	14.9%	3.4%	11.5%	2.3%	2.57	3.53	+0.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	30	5	31	114	23	5	1	17%	1.0	15.9%	1.6%	14.3%	1.7%	0.87	2.90	+0.6
2022	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	30	5	31	114	23	5	1	17%	1.0	20.2%	4.4%	15.8%	0.9%	0.87	2.52	+0.8
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	8	49	212	32	9	2	14%	0.9	14.9%	3.8%	11.1%	1.0%	4.56	2.90	+1.0
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	8	49	212	32	9	2	14%	0.9	15.1%	4.2%	10.8%	0.9%	4.56	2.88	+1.0
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	43	184	39	9	3	2%	0.8	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	2.1%	3.32	3.23	+0.7
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	43	184	39	9	3	2%	0.8	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	2.1%	3.32	3.23	+0.7
2024	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	1	43	184	39	9	3	2%	0.8	21.2%	4.9%	16.3%	1.6%	3.32	2.82	+0.9
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	23	112	11	11	6	0%	0.8	9.9%	11.1%	-1.2%	6.7%	7.83	7.34	-0.7
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	23	112	11	11	6	0%	0.8	9.9%	11.1%	-1.2%	6.7%	7.83	7.34	-0.7
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	23	112	11	11	6	0%	0.8	9.8%	9.8%	0.0%	5.4%	7.83	6.97	-0.6
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	14	65	14	8	0	7%	0.9	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	0.0%	1.93	3.05	—
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	14	65	14	8	0	7%	0.9	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	0.0%	1.93	3.05	—
2026	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	14	65	14	8	0	7%	0.9	21.5%	12.3%	9.2%	0.0%	1.93	2.81	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			349	13	327	1367	240	105	25	4%	0.9	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.59	+3.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	KC	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	10.4%	5.0%	3.0%	4.77	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	KC	29	0	30	128	18	14	4	0%	1.0	14.3%	11.1%	3.2%	3.5%	5.27	5.60	-0.3
2028	39	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.3%	11.1%	3.2%	3.5%	5.27	5.60	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		349	13	327	1367	240	105	25	4%	0.9	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.59	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		213	8	200	836	147	64	15	4%	0.9	17.6%	7.7%	9.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		476	18	484	2027	354	152	38	4%	1.0	17.4%	7.5%	10.0%	1.9%	3.27	3.61	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	7	200	838	146	63	16	4%	1.0	17.4%	7.5%	10.0%	1.9%	3.27	3.61	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 13 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.05 (+0.08)K% 21.0% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.97%	—	×0.860	18.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×0.900	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 5 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.21 (+0.34)K% 9.7% → 8.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.68%	—	×0.860	8.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×0.900	5.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.938	×1.100	3.78%

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 8 IPFIP 2.47 → 2.87 (+0.39)K% 29.6% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.880	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.050	15.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.989	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 8 IPFIP 4.84 → 5.26 (+0.42)K% 11.8% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.76%	—	×0.880	10.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.050	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.38%

Result: FIP 4.84 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 30 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.53 (+0.27)K% 18.5% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.46%	—	×0.880	16.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.050	7.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.054	×1.100	1.61%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKAZL Royals · 7 IPFIP 0.86 → 2.00 (+1.14)K% 35.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.680	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.86 → 2.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 63 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.51 (+0.19)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.40%	—	×1.050	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.157	×1.100	1.90%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Scott Alexander (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	15.4%	10.4%	3.0%	—	5.60	14.3%	3.2%	30	+0.43	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	55
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	39
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	39
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	38
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	34
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	33
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	32
Francisco Del Rosario R 2019 · 6.35 FIP	38	SW	6.35	11.9%	12.5%	4.9%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	32
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	30
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	28
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	23

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	17.0%	9.2%	0.82	3.68
Sean Burnett ('16)	1.9	63	17.2%	9.2%	0.88	3.52
Rafael Perez ('12)	1.6	66	19.2%	8.4%	0.71	3.64
Mike Koplove ('07)	1.3	64	16.1%	9.5%	0.67	3.82
Jeff Innis ('87-'93, 4 WAR*)	1.8	60	16.2%*	8.1%*	0.82*	3.56*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Jeff Lahti ('82-'86, 3 WAR*)	1.4	72	15.5%*	9.3%*	0.71*	3.69*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Scott Alexander (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	15.4%	10.4%	3.0%	—	5.60	14.3%	3.2%	30	+0.43	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	55
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	39
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	39
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	38
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	34
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	33
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	32
Francisco Del Rosario R 2019 · 6.35 FIP	38	SW	6.35	11.9%	12.5%	4.9%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	32
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	30
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	28
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	23

Scott Alexander

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps