Manuel Medina — OGILVIE

Manuel Medina P Greenville Drive

Age 24 LHP 5'10" / 140 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%22.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	6	0	8	32	10	2	0	0%	1.3	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	1.17	1.25	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	6	0	8	32	10	2	0	0%	1.3	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	1.17	1.27	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	94	35	5	0	0%	1.5	25.3%	6.6%	18.7%	0.0%	1.25	1.80	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	94	35	5	0	0%	1.5	37.2%	5.3%	31.9%	0.0%	1.25	0.56	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	40	152	56	5	2	7%	2.7	24.7%	2.2%	22.5%	2.9%	2.45	2.89	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	40	152	56	5	2	7%	2.7	36.8%	3.3%	33.6%	1.3%	2.45	1.34	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	136	40	14	4	0%	1.8	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	4.5%	3.90	5.09	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	136	40	14	4	0%	1.8	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	4.5%	3.90	5.09	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	30	136	40	14	4	0%	1.8	29.4%	10.3%	19.1%	2.9%	3.90	3.57	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	24	97	41	4	0	0%	1.2	31.4%	6.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.48	1.26	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	24	97	41	4	0	0%	1.2	31.4%	6.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.48	1.26	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	24	97	41	4	0	0%	1.2	42.3%	4.1%	38.1%	0.0%	1.48	0.22	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	58	242	69	20	3	9%	2.5	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	1.5%	4.06	3.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	58	242	69	20	3	9%	2.5	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	1.5%	4.06	3.33	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	2	58	242	69	20	3	9%	2.5	28.5%	8.3%	20.2%	1.2%	4.06	2.42	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	BOS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	50	0	52	222	50	20	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.5%	2.8%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	50	0	52	222	51	20	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.22	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	52	218	50	20	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	22	0	23	97	22	9	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.5%	2.8%	4.27	4.24	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	33	0	35	148	34	13	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.22	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	39	15	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	0	97	411	94	37	12	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	2.8%	4.26	3.86	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	76	25	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.0%	13.7%	2.8%	4.26	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		96	3	182	753	184	56	14	3%	1.9	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.02	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	3	200	829	203	62	16	3%	1.9	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.02	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	22.0%	9.3%	2.8%	—	4.24	22.7%	13.7%	157	-0.07	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	86
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	85
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	84
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	84
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	84
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	83
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	83
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	83
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	83
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	82
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	82
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	82
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	82
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	82
Trevor Lane L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	21.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.360	3.10	21.2%	12.6%	91	-0.46	2.13	246	82
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	81
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	81
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	81
Josh Dye L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SU	3.51	22.0%	7.0%	2.5%	.298	5.34	16.6%	10.4%	79	+1.83	2.79	238	81
Kirby Snead L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	20.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.318	3.10	24.6%	15.6%	98	-0.93	2.12	388	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	22.6%	9.1%	1.08	4.27
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47