Manuel Medina
P
Greenville Drive
Age 24
LHP
5'10" / 140 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 116
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
K%22.8%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 6 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 1.25 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 6 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 1.27 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 14 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 18.7% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 1.80 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 14 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 37.2% | 5.3% | 31.9% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 0.56 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 1 | 40 | 152 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 7% | 2.7 | 24.7% | 2.2% | 22.5% | 3.5% | 2.45 | 3.23 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 1 | 40 | 152 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 7% | 2.7 | 36.8% | 3.3% | 33.6% | 1.3% | 2.45 | 1.34 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 30 | 136 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 3.90 | 5.31 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 30 | 136 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 29.4% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 24 | 97 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.4% | 6.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.48 | 1.26 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 24 | 97 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 42.3% | 4.1% | 38.1% | 0.0% | 1.48 | 0.22 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 2 | 58 | 242 | 69 | 20 | 3 | 9% | 2.5 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 4.06 | 3.33 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 2 | 58 | 242 | 69 | 20 | 3 | 9% | 2.5 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 1.2% | 4.06 | 2.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 75 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 3 | 182 | 753 | 184 | 56 | 16 | 3% | 1.9 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 2.1% | 2.87 | 3.12 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 3 | 200 | 829 | 203 | 62 | 17 | 3% | 1.9 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 2.1% | 2.87 | 3.12 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Medina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.18 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 31 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 85 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 85 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 83 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 83 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 83 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 83 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 82 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 82 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.39 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .360 | 3.11 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.28 | 2.07 | 246 | 82 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 81 |
| Josh Dye L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.57 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.40 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 79 | +1.83 | 2.81 | 238 | 81 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.14 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.45 | 2.63 | 478 | 81 |
| Darien Núñez L 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 81 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 4.21 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 77 | +1.07 | 2.87 | 186 | 81 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.85 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.08 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.23 | 3.85 | 104 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 31 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 1.07 | 4.22 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |