Manuel Medina
P
Greenville Drive
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
LHP
5'10" / 140 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.5%
IP43
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 6 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 14 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 1.80 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 15 | 1 | 40 | 152 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 24.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.45 | 3.18 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 17 | 0 | 30 | 136 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 3.90 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 21 | 0 | 24 | 97 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 31.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 1.48 | 1.26 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 23 | 2 | 58 | 242 | 69 | 20 | 3 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 4.06 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 3 | 182 | 753 | 184 | 56 | 15 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 2.87 | 3.07 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 3 | 200 | 829 | 203 | 62 | 17 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 2.87 | 3.07 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Medina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.18 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 131 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 87 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 85 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 83 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 83 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 83 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 83 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 83 |
| Robert Garcia L 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 83 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 83 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 83 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 83 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 83 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 4.11 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.36 | 2.59 | 446 | 82 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 3.79 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 67 | +0.67 | 3.01 | 176 | 82 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 82 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||