Kirby Snead — OGILVIE

Kirby Snead P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 218 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA4.99

FIP5.16

K%17.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†4040

SL (21%)

SI (39%)

FB-0.7 (61%)

CH-2.2 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	27	117	18	4	0	0%	2.0	11.4%	2.1%	9.3%	0.0%	3.62	2.41	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	27	117	18	4	0	0%	2.0	15.4%	3.4%	12.0%	0.0%	3.62	2.22	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	55	222	56	24	0	0%	1.3	19.0%	12.6%	6.4%	0.0%	1.79	3.09	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	55	222	56	24	0	0%	1.3	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	0.0%	1.79	2.38	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	51	240	51	27	3	0%	1.2	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%	1.9%	3.88	4.38	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	51	240	51	27	3	0%	1.2	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	1.2%	3.88	3.45	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	63	269	68	19	7	0%	1.3	20.7%	8.7%	12.0%	2.9%	3.45	4.03	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	63	269	68	19	7	0%	1.3	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.6%	3.45	3.29	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	48	188	64	18	1	2%	1.1	31.7%	10.6%	21.1%	0.6%	1.70	2.12	+1.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	48	188	64	18	1	2%	1.1	34.0%	9.6%	24.5%	0.5%	1.70	1.82	+1.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	58	267	55	21	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	2.4%	5.55	3.78	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	58	267	55	21	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	2.2%	5.55	3.63	+0.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	35	179	33	22	6	2%	0.9	16.1%	10.9%	5.2%	3.9%	6.94	5.28	-0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	35	179	33	22	6	2%	0.9	16.1%	10.9%	5.2%	3.9%	6.94	5.28	-0.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	35	179	33	22	6	2%	0.9	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	3.4%	6.94	5.33	-0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	47	220	41	24	6	0%	0.9	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	3.4%	6.94	4.69	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	47	220	41	24	6	0%	0.9	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	3.4%	6.94	4.69	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	47	220	41	24	6	0%	0.9	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	2.7%	6.94	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	0	74	344	58	33	6	0%	0.9	16.9%	9.6%	7.3%	1.7%	5.09	3.92	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	31	1	45	192	44	21	3	3%	1.5	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	1.7%	2.60	3.68	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	31	1	45	192	44	21	3	3%	1.5	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	1.7%	2.60	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	PHI	31	1	45	192	44	21	3	3%	1.5	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	1.6%	2.60	3.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PHI	47	0	50	210	36	24	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.6%	5.6%	3.3%	5.16	5.33	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	43	0	46	193	32	23	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	3.6%	5.36	5.54	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	PHI	40	0	42	175	28	21	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	3.9%	5.59	5.78	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	PHI	17	0	18	76	13	9	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.6%	5.6%	3.3%	5.16	5.33	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	24	0	25	106	18	12	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	3.6%	5.36	5.54	-0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	PHI	20	0	21	89	14	11	3	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.2%	4.0%	3.9%	5.59	5.78	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	0	139	616	103	65	16	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.6%	5.22	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	0	200	888	148	94	23	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.6%	5.22	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		372	3	429	1894	362	183	38	1%	1.2	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.0%	3.97	3.80	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	1	200	883	169	85	18	1%	1.2	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.0%	3.97	3.80	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kirby Snead (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	17.3%	11.4%	3.1%	—	5.54	16.7%	4.9%	137	+0.38	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	79
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	77
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	75
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	74
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	74
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	153	74
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	72
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	70
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	405	70
Ross Detwiler L 2017 · 5.84 FIP	31	SU	5.84	17.4%	14.2%	4.4%	.357	5.32	14.9%	7.8%	217	-0.52	3.49	512	68
Scott Alexander L 2020 · 5.61 FIP	31	SU	5.61	17.3%	15.4%	3.7%	.212	3.15	14.5%	11.1%	81	-2.46	2.90	426	67
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	66
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	29	SU	4.16	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.92	23.7%	16.1%	146	-1.24	2.79	473	65
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	64
Fabian Williamson L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SU	4.78	20.5%	21.1%	1.3%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	154	64
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	64
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SU	5.46	8.1%	13.8%	2.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	115	62
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	62
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	16.9%	11.7%	1.33	5.25
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86