Easton Lucas — OGILVIE

Easton Lucas P Buffalo Bisons

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.10

FIP5.17

K%19.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

FB+1.8 (51%)

CH+0.6 (21%)

SL-1.9 (10%)

CT-2.8 (19%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	1	0	3	11	1	0	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.33	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	1	0	3	11	1	0	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.43	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	27	0	39	163	50	13	5	0%	1.4	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.7%	3.96	4.29	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	27	0	39	163	50	13	5	0%	1.4	30.7%	8.0%	22.7%	3.1%	3.96	3.20	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	32	0	57	242	65	25	6	0%	1.8	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	2.5%	4.76	4.10	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	32	0	57	242	65	25	6	0%	1.8	26.9%	10.3%	16.5%	2.5%	4.76	3.51	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	53	233	58	19	10	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.7%	13.5%	4.9%	4.39	4.98	-0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	53	233	58	19	10	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.7%	13.5%	4.9%	4.39	4.98	-0.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	53	233	58	19	10	0%	1.3	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	4.3%	4.39	4.43	+0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	4	80	340	83	35	5	9%	1.7	20.8%	9.5%	11.2%	1.6%	3.92	3.43	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	4	80	340	83	35	5	9%	1.7	20.8%	9.5%	11.2%	1.6%	3.92	3.43	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	4	80	340	83	35	5	9%	1.7	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	1.5%	3.92	3.15	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	18	94	399	97	41	13	72%	3.8	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	4.0%	4.40	4.79	+0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	18	94	399	97	41	13	72%	3.8	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	4.0%	4.40	4.79	+0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	18	94	399	97	41	13	72%	3.8	24.3%	10.3%	14.0%	3.3%	4.40	4.14	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	5	43	204	40	24	7	25%	2.1	19.6%	11.8%	7.8%	3.4%	8.02	5.05	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.3%	5.10	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	248	47	29	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.8%	7.2%	3.5%	5.18	5.29	-0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	55	231	43	28	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	3.7%	5.31	5.45	-0.5
2027	30	MLB CTX	TOR	21	0	22	93	18	11	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.8%	7.2%	3.5%	5.18	5.29	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TOR	29	0	30	127	24	15	5	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	3.7%	5.31	5.45	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	5	94	422	81	50	15	7%	1.4	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	3.5%	6.50	4.91	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		147	11	200	895	172	106	32	7%	1.4	19.2%	11.9%	7.3%	3.5%	6.50	4.91	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		173	22	326	1388	295	132	45	13%	1.9	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.3%	4.25	4.29	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	13	200	852	181	81	28	13%	1.9	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.3%	4.25	4.29	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Easton Lucas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	3.3%	—	5.37	18.8%	6.9%	113	+0.20	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	75
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.03	299	75
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	73
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	71
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	69
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	69
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	68
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	67
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	66
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	65
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	64
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	64
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	64
Cam Vieaux L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	29	SU	4.51	18.8%	10.0%	3.1%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	620	63
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	63
Felix Doubront L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	23.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.304	3.44	17.6%	12.6%	126	-0.68	3.44	291	63
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.0%	11.9%	1.35	5.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50