Easton Lucas
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121130vR 139
ERA5.20
FIP5.33
K%20.0%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%7.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p4421.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
FB+1.8 (51%)
CH+0.6 (21%)
SL-1.9 (10%)
CT-2.8 (19%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3.0 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.33 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3.0 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.43 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 27 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 50 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 3.96 | 4.21 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 27 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 50 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.7% | 8.0% | 22.7% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 3.20 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 32 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 65 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 4.76 | 3.92 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 32 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 65 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.9% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 3.51 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 58 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 4.39 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 58 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 4.3% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 4 | 80 | 340 | 83 | 35 | 5 | 9% | 1.7 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 1.6% | 3.92 | 3.49 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 4 | 80 | 340 | 83 | 35 | 5 | 9% | 1.7 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 3.92 | 3.15 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 18 | 94 | 399 | 97 | 41 | 13 | 72% | 3.8 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 4.40 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 18 | 94 | 399 | 97 | 41 | 13 | 72% | 3.8 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.14 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 53 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 5.20 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 49 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 44 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 12.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 5 | 94 | 422 | 82 | 52 | 15 | 7% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 6.57 | 4.98 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 11 | 200 | 895 | 174 | 110 | 32 | 7% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 6.57 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 22 | 326 | 1388 | 304 | 142 | 46 | 13% | 1.9 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.38 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 13 | 200 | 852 | 186 | 87 | 28 | 13% | 1.9 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Easton Lucas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 20.0% | 12.8% | 3.5% | — | 5.50 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 113 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 74 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.9% | .345 | 4.05 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 169 | -0.20 | 3.03 | 299 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 72 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 71 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 70 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 69 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 69 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 67 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.14 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 299 | 67 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.34 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .275 | 5.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.88 | 269 | 67 |
| Braulio Lara L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 65 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 65 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 65 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 64 |
| Cam Vieaux L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.62 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 3.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 620 | 63 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 63 |
| Robby Scott L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.42 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 4.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 285 | 63 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 62 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 393 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 19.6% | 12.7% | 1.41 | 5.31 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |