Easton Lucas
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA6.08
FIP4.70
xFIP4.75
SIERA4.69
K%22.0%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.6%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†5050
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p4421.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
FB+1.8 (51%)
CH+0.6 (21%)
SL-1.9 (10%)
CT-2.8 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 27 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 50 | 13 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 3.96 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 32 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 65 | 25 | 6 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.76 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 42 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 58 | 19 | 10 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.39 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 46 | 4 | 80 | 340 | 83 | 35 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 3.92 | 3.48 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 25 | 18 | 94 | 399 | 97 | 41 | 13 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 4.40 | 4.80 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 75 | 46 | 12 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 6.54 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 71 | 43 | 12 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.66 | 5.14 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 67 | 41 | 12 | 19.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.34 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 69 | 36 | 11 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 4.97 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 64 | 35 | 11 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 59 | 34 | 11 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 53 | 32 | 10 | 19.0% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 5.29 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 48 | 31 | 10 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.54 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 173 | 22 | 326 | 1388 | 304 | 142 | 45 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.32 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 13 | 200 | 852 | 187 | 87 | 28 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Easton Lucas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.10 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 244 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 70 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 70 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 67 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.72 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.13 | 3.74 | 333 | 64 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 64 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 64 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 63 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 4.3% | .286 | 4.39 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 196 | -0.84 | 3.60 | 808 | 62 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 62 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 62 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 61 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.51 | 17.3% | 11.6% | 4.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 216 | -0.64 | 4.34 | 713 | 61 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 60 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.66 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .334 | 5.48 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.82 | 2.83 | 845 | 60 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 60 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 60 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 3.1% | .284 | 3.42 | 20.5% | 13.1% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.93 | 478 | 59 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 59 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 454 | 59 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.22 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.8% | .345 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 169 | -0.16 | 3.06 | 299 | 59 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.