Ben Wereski

P Louisville Bats

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	AKC	26	0	57	4.42	3.82	25.1%	6.5%	—	K 18.6% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.78
2023	25	MIX2 levels	20	1	22	3.63	2.61	35.2%	7.6%	—	K 29.0% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.73
2026	28	MIX2 levels	12	12	65	4.43	4.68	25.1%	10.1%	—	K 21.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	4	0	4	4.89	4.89	21.2%	9.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCIN	12	0	13	4.94	5.01	21.1%	9.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAndrew Barbosa (age 29) · Matt Whitehouse (age 28) · John Rheinecker (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%21.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	26	0	57	247	62	16	9	0%	2.2	18.6%	7.6%	10.9%	4.2%	4.42	4.78	—
2022	24	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	26	0	57	247	62	16	9	0%	2.2	25.1%	6.5%	18.6%	3.6%	4.42	3.82	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	22	105	37	8	3	5%	1.1	29.0%	7.4%	21.6%	3.9%	3.63	3.73	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	1	22	105	37	8	3	5%	1.1	35.2%	7.6%	27.6%	2.9%	3.63	2.61	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	65	267	67	27	12	100%	5.4	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	5.1%	4.43	5.33	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	65	267	67	27	12	100%	5.4	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	5.1%	4.43	5.33	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	65	267	67	27	12	100%	5.4	25.1%	10.1%	15.0%	4.5%	4.43	4.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.6%	11.7%	3.6%	4.89	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	34	0	35	149	31	15	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.8%	4.94	5.01	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.8%	4.94	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.8%	4.94	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	77	31	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.8%	4.94	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		58	13	144	619	133	52	28	22%	2.5	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	4.5%	4.30	4.84	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	18	200	858	184	73	39	22%	2.5	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	4.5%	4.30	4.84	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 46 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.10 (+0.37)K% 23.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.860	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×0.900	9.38%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 19 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.91 (+1.17)K% 29.3% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.810	23.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.100	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	5.33%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.40%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 20 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.73 (+1.22)K% 37.6% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.63%	—	×0.770	28.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.150	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.033	×1.250	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 57 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.78 (+0.98)K% 25.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.10%	—	×0.740	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.48%	—	×1.180	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.140	×1.300	4.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Wereski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	21.2%	9.6%	3.6%	—	5.01	21.1%	11.3%	35	+0.12	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	74
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	73
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	71
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	69
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	69
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	69
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	67
Jake McSteen L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	28	SU	4.64	19.7%	6.4%	4.4%	.348	2.22	18.9%	13.2%	18	-2.42	2.22	286	67
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	66
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	64
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	64
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	64
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	63
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	63
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.29	18.4%	9.5%	196	-0.95	3.60	886	62
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	62
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	21.2%	9.7%	1.43	4.91
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*