Ignacio Briceno — OGILVIE

Ignacio Briceno P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 155 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%14.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%0.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers	14	0	24	107	20	11	2	0%	1.7	12.7%	12.9%	-0.1%	2.7%	2.22	5.16	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers	14	0	24	107	20	11	2	0%	1.7	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	1.9%	2.22	3.88	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	17	0	28	109	30	6	0	0%	1.7	18.7%	6.9%	11.8%	0.0%	1.59	2.39	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	17	0	28	109	30	6	0	0%	1.7	27.5%	5.5%	22.0%	0.0%	1.59	1.62	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	18	0	27	118	30	12	2	0%	1.5	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	2.4%	2.63	4.54	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	18	0	27	118	30	12	2	0%	1.5	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	2.4%	2.63	4.54	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	18	0	27	118	30	12	2	0%	1.5	25.4%	10.2%	15.3%	1.7%	2.63	3.17	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	17	1	26	115	25	9	0	6%	1.5	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	0.0%	4.10	3.09	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	17	1	26	115	25	9	0	6%	1.5	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	0.0%	4.10	3.09	—
2024	23	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	17	1	26	115	25	9	0	6%	1.5	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	0.0%	4.10	2.23	—
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	32	0	50	218	43	22	0	0%	1.6	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	0.0%	3.06	3.38	—
2025	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	32	0	50	218	43	22	0	0%	1.6	14.6%	11.9%	2.7%	0.0%	3.06	3.38	—
2025	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	32	0	50	218	43	22	0	0%	1.6	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	0.0%	3.06	2.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	DET	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	14.2%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%	5.44	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	67	0	70	296	47	39	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	13.1%	2.7%	2.7%	5.29	5.26	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	66	0	69	291	48	37	8	0%	1.0	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	2.7%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	64	0	67	282	47	36	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	2.9%	5.23	5.27	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	270	45	35	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.0%	3.6%	3.0%	5.31	5.37	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	29	0	30	127	20	17	3	0%	1.0	15.8%	13.1%	2.7%	2.7%	5.29	5.26	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	41	0	43	182	30	23	5	0%	1.0	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	2.7%	5.23	5.23	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	48	0	50	211	35	27	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	2.9%	5.23	5.27	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	52	220	36	28	7	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.0%	3.6%	3.0%	5.31	5.37	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	741	122	96	21	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	2.8%	5.26	4.91	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	109	24	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.9%	3.5%	2.8%	5.26	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		98	1	156	667	103	73	6	1%	1.6	15.5%	11.0%	4.5%	0.9%	2.76	3.66	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		125	1	200	853	132	94	7	1%	1.6	15.5%	11.0%	4.5%	0.9%	2.76	3.66	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ignacio Briceno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	14.2%	13.6%	2.6%	—	5.25	16.3%	3.3%	206	-0.19	—	—	—
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	93
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	86
Cody Stull L 2017 · 4.73 FIP	25	SU	4.73	11.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.310	3.16	16.7%	8.1%	81	-1.57	2.57	264	85
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	84
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	83
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	83
Joey DeNato L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.3%	15.1%	1.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	167	83
Justin Thomas L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	13.1%	10.4%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	105	83
Kumar Nambiar L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	25	SU	4.94	14.0%	13.0%	2.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	221	82
Fred Schlichtholz L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	.343	3.49	22.3%	16.4%	35	-1.14	3.49	175	82
Luis Ysla L 2017 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	15.7%	15.9%	1.0%	.326	5.35	18.5%	4.3%	180	+0.98	3.75	378	82
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	81
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	81
Daniel Gibson L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	13.2%	13.5%	1.3%	.336	3.73	18.6%	9.9%	28	-0.71	2.95	159	81
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	81
Frank Garces L 2015 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	16.7%	13.3%	4.2%	.267	4.32	16.9%	8.9%	114	-1.33	4.32	306	80
Jose Meraz L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	27	SU	4.71	13.3%	12.0%	2.2%	.331	4.06	15.3%	6.7%	44	-0.65	3.78	110	80
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	15.9%	13.1%	1.07	5.30
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41