Darwin Rodriguez
P
Columbia Fireflies
+0.4
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.5%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals Gold | 11 | 2 | 25 | 110 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 3.65 | 5.73 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Royals Ventura | 11 | 4 | 31 | 120 | 29 | 10 | 0 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 2.03 | 3.03 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 16 | 14 | 55 | 228 | 63 | 11 | 6 | 19.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.58 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 2 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 3 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 52 | 221 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 3.77 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | KC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | KC | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | KC | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 21 | 118 | 489 | 81 | 41 | 14 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.20 | 4.36 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 36 | 200 | 829 | 137 | 69 | 24 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.20 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darwin Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 140 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 89 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 88 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.56 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.46 | 4.10 | 123 | 88 |
| Garvin Alston L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.43 | 4.08 | 232 | 87 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 85 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 85 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 84 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 84 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 84 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 83 |
| Jake Rice L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.77 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 130 | +1.63 | 3.14 | 199 | 83 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2029 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 82 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.68 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.25 | 2.94 | 141 | 82 |
| Brandon Walter L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.51 | 19.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .270 | 2.91 | 27.7% | 23.0% | 139 | -0.60 | 2.89 | 391 | 82 |
| Sam Moll L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.38 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | .240 | 3.78 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 120 | -0.60 | 2.35 | 451 | 82 |
| Hunter Patteson L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.16 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .372 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 212 | +1.27 | 3.16 | 228 | 82 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 81 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 81 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2029 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||