Darwin Rodriguez

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#430ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	4	31	2.03	2.20	24.2%	8.3%	—	K 16.4% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.03
2025	22	MIX2 levels	16	14	55	3.58	2.83	27.6%	4.8%	—	K 19.1% · BB 5.9% · FIP 4.31
2026	23	AKC	24	20	115	3.83	2.75	22.9%	8.2%	—	K 17.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	—	—	0	4.47	4.47	17.0%	7.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBKC	6	6	36	4.28	4.24	18.1%	7.4%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBKC	9	9	52	4.23	4.21	18.7%	7.4%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJordan Carr (age 25) · Dallas Braden (age 24) · Carson Teel (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%17.0%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	4.9%	3.65	5.77	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.6%	3.65	4.40	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	16.4%	10.4%	6.0%	0.0%	2.03	3.03	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	16.4%	10.4%	6.0%	0.0%	2.03	3.03	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	24.2%	8.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.03	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	19.1%	5.9%	13.3%	3.8%	3.58	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	19.1%	5.9%	13.3%	3.8%	3.58	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	2.6%	3.58	2.83	—
2026	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	115	497	114	41	5	83%	4.8	17.0%	9.7%	7.2%	1.3%	3.83	3.62	—
2026	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	115	497	114	41	5	83%	4.8	17.0%	9.7%	7.2%	1.3%	3.83	3.62	—
2026	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	115	497	114	41	5	83%	4.8	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	1.0%	3.83	2.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	2.6%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	84	355	64	26	9	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.39	4.35	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	333	62	25	9	100%	6.1	18.7%	7.4%	11.2%	2.7%	4.34	4.32	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	75	318	60	24	9	100%	5.8	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.35	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	71	301	57	23	9	100%	5.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.43	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	66	279	52	22	8	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.56	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	60	252	46	21	8	100%	6.0	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.74	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	224	40	19	8	100%	5.9	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.4%	4.83	4.94	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	36	152	28	11	4	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.4%	10.7%	2.5%	4.28	4.24	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	41	16	5	100%	5.8	18.7%	7.4%	11.2%	2.5%	4.23	4.21	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	58	245	46	18	6	100%	5.8	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	2.5%	4.23	4.24	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	60	253	48	19	7	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.6%	4.28	4.31	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	58	245	45	19	7	100%	5.8	18.5%	7.9%	10.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.44	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	54	228	41	19	7	100%	6.0	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.61	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	37	18	7	100%	6.1	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.2%	4.69	4.80	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	366	1546	285	121	42	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.8%	10.6%	2.7%	4.37	4.03	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	66	23	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.8%	10.6%	2.7%	4.37	4.03	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		62	40	226	955	163	84	20	65%	3.6	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	2.1%	3.50	3.96	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	35	200	845	144	75	18	65%	3.6	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	2.1%	3.50	3.96	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 115 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.62 (+0.86)K% 22.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.94%	—	×0.740	16.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.25%	—	×1.180	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 41 IPFIP 2.66 → 4.42 (+1.76)K% 30.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.49%	—	×0.680	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.66%	—	×1.250	4.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷0.939	×1.400	4.54%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 15 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.03 (+0.79)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.31%	—	×0.740	15.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.81%	—	×1.180	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.086	×1.300	1.87%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Royals Ventura · 31 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.03 (+0.92)K% 24.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.17%	—	×0.680	16.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.994	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Royals Gold · 25 IPFIP 4.33 → 5.77 (+1.44)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.250	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.048	×1.400	4.86%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darwin Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	17.0%	7.7%	2.6%	—	4.34	18.5%	11.1%	238	-0.13	—	—	—
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	83
Dallas Braden L 2008 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	13.6%	7.6%	2.7%	.301	3.79	14.5%	8.5%	347	-0.59	3.64	491	83
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	83
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	82
Zach Thornton L 2024 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	13.8%	7.2%	1.9%	.335	3.96	20.5%	14.1%	220	+0.06	2.95	288	81
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	81
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	81
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	80
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	79
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	79
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	79
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Clayton Richard L 2008 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	13.5%	5.1%	2.3%	.329	4.01	16.4%	7.2%	454	+0.12	3.56	1,348	79
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	79
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	79
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	18.3%	7.8%	1.11	4.47
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Tony Peña ('06-'11, 2 WAR*)	1.9	63	17.8%*	7.8%*	0.96*	4.15*
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Jerry Spradlin ('00)	1.9	74	18.6%	7.8%	0.97	4.75