Darwin Rodriguez

Darwin Rodriguez P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%18.3%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	ROK	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	4.6%	3.65	5.65	—
2023	20	ROK	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.6%	3.65	4.40	—
2024	21	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	16.4%	10.4%	6.0%	0.0%	2.03	3.03	—
2024	21	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	24.2%	8.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.03	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	19.1%	5.9%	13.3%	4.0%	3.58	4.41	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	2.6%	3.58	2.83	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A	Columbia Fireflies	17	13	79	339	75	28	3	76%	4.6	16.4%	9.7%	6.6%	1.2%	3.89	3.58	+1.3
ROS	23	MLB	KC	10	10	62	260	48	17	8	100%	6.2	18.3%	6.5%	11.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	6.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB	KC	—	—	140	599	123	45	11	—	—	20.5%	7.5%	13.0%	1.8%	4.11	3.94	+2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	11	11	63	266	52	17	8	100%	5.7	19.4%	6.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.34	4.30	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	KC	11	11	64	270	54	18	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.28	4.25	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	KC	11	11	64	270	55	18	8	100%	5.8	20.4%	6.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.23	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	KC	10	10	63	266	54	18	8	100%	6.3	20.5%	6.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.27	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	KC	10	10	61	258	52	18	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.1%	4.32	4.35	+0.2
2032	29	MLB	KC	10	10	58	246	50	18	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	7.2%	12.9%	3.3%	4.42	4.48	+0.0
2033	30	MLB	KC	9	9	55	231	46	17	8	100%	6.1	19.8%	7.5%	12.2%	3.5%	4.56	4.66	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	KC	9	9	51	216	42	17	8	100%	5.7	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.7%	4.74	4.86	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	KC	5	5	27	114	22	7	3	100%	5.4	19.4%	6.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	KC	7	7	42	177	36	12	5	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.23	4.20	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	KC	8	8	51	215	44	14	6	100%	6.4	20.4%	6.7%	13.7%	2.9%	4.20	4.18	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	KC	9	9	54	228	47	16	7	100%	6.0	20.5%	6.9%	13.6%	2.9%	4.21	4.22	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	KC	9	9	54	228	46	16	7	100%	6.0	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.26	4.29	+0.2
2032	29	MLB	KC	9	9	53	224	45	16	7	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.2%	12.9%	3.2%	4.36	4.42	+0.1
2033	30	MLB	KC	8	8	51	215	43	16	7	100%	6.4	19.8%	7.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.50	4.60	-0.0
2034	31	MLB	KC	8	8	48	203	39	16	7	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.6%	4.67	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			64	64	379	1600	321	113	49	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.00	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	169	60	26	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.00	+3.3
Career	—			55	33	190	797	134	69	18	60%	3.4	16.8%	8.6%	8.1%	2.3%	3.46	4.02	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—			58	35	200	840	141	73	19	60%	3.4	16.8%	8.6%	8.1%	2.3%	3.46	4.02	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darwin Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	18.3%	6.5%	3.0%	—	4.26	20.0%	13.3%	191	-0.14	—	—	—
Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP	23	SP-	4.63	18.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.332	4.35	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.28	3.54	186	87
Ryan Magdic L 2028 · 3.64 FIP	25	SP-	3.64	18.3%	6.7%	2.3%	.314	3.18	21.5%	16.7%	54	-0.46	3.18	150	85
Ben Brecht L 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	17.3%	5.5%	3.7%	.237	4.39	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.02	4.37	118	84
Ryan Williamson L 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.67	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.57	4.10	123	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.1%	9.0%	3.5%	.349	4.18	22.0%	8.2%	175	-0.31	3.65	308	82
Tommy Shirley L 2029 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP-	3.30	19.6%	7.0%	1.8%	.252	4.86	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.56	3.30	147	81
Charlie McDaniel L 2027 · 3.78 FIP	24	SP-	3.78	17.3%	7.1%	2.3%	.305	4.26	16.9%	10.6%	73	+0.48	3.78	174	80
Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	19.4%	10.0%	3.8%	.360	5.95	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.15	4.80	223	79
Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	18.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.284	4.47	17.1%	5.8%	213	+0.07	3.67	288	79
Jordan Carr L 2028 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	3.87	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.01	3.39	261	78
Garrett Gainey L 2028 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	17.6%	6.0%	2.3%	.257	5.52	17.8%	9.6%	53	+1.87	3.65	116	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	23.3%	11.3%	2.4%	.286	4.89	18.1%	2.5%	99	+1.00	3.89	176	78
Carson Teel L 2026 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP-	3.44	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.80	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.36	3.44	248	77
Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP-	4.25	21.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.333	4.75	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.50	3.42	205	77
James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP	23	SW	3.50	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.20	2.02	280	77
Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP	24	SP-	4.84	20.5%	10.5%	3.9%	.315	4.77	18.0%	7.5%	56	-0.07	4.77	154	77
Matt Bower L 2026 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	15.6%	6.7%	4.2%	.325	4.63	18.7%	2.3%	15	-0.29	3.31	239	77
Trey McGough L 2026 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP-	3.76	15.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.278	3.40	22.2%	13.3%	99	-0.36	2.87	227	76
Patrick Wicklander L 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	16.9%	8.8%	3.7%	.327	5.17	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.37	4.80	254	76
A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.86	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.18	3.64	203	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	60	19.8%	7.0%	1.21	4.39
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Jake McGee ('22)	8	44	23.3%	6.3%	1.34	4.27
Matt Wisler ('22)	8	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43