Darwin Rodriguez

Darwin Rodriguez P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%18.3%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	4.9%	3.65	5.77	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	4.9%	3.65	5.77	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Gold	11	2	25	110	22	8	4	18%	2.2	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.6%	3.65	4.40	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	16.4%	10.4%	6.0%	0.0%	2.03	3.03	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	16.4%	10.4%	6.0%	0.0%	2.03	3.03	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	4	31	120	29	10	0	36%	2.8	24.2%	8.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.03	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	19.1%	5.9%	13.3%	3.8%	3.58	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	19.1%	5.9%	13.3%	3.8%	3.58	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	55	228	63	11	6	88%	3.5	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	2.6%	3.58	2.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	115	497	114	41	5	83%	4.8	17.0%	9.7%	7.2%	1.3%	3.83	3.62	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	115	497	114	41	5	83%	4.8	17.0%	9.7%	7.2%	1.3%	3.83	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	KC	24	20	115	497	114	41	5	83%	4.8	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	1.0%	3.83	2.76	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	5	22	4	1	1	100%	5.2	18.3%	5.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	120	519	118	42	6	—	—	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	1.1%	3.86	3.65	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	115	487	94	28	14	100%	5.5	19.3%	5.8%	13.5%	3.0%	4.25	4.21	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	117	493	98	29	15	100%	5.8	19.8%	5.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	117	493	99	29	15	100%	6.1	20.2%	5.9%	14.3%	3.0%	4.17	4.14	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	115	486	98	29	15	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	471	94	29	15	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.1%	13.9%	3.1%	4.23	4.27	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	106	450	89	29	15	100%	5.9	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.3%	4.33	4.40	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	100	423	82	28	15	100%	5.9	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	3.5%	4.48	4.57	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	93	394	75	28	14	100%	5.8	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.7%	4.66	4.78	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	86	364	68	27	14	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	3.9%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	49	207	40	12	6	100%	5.4	19.3%	5.8%	13.5%	2.7%	4.13	4.09	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	65	19	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	5.8%	14.0%	2.7%	4.08	4.04	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	92	388	78	23	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	5.9%	14.3%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	98	414	84	25	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.0%	14.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	84	26	12	100%	6.2	20.1%	6.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.10	4.14	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	81	26	12	100%	6.1	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.20	4.27	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	92	388	76	26	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.43	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	87	367	70	26	12	100%	6.2	19.1%	7.0%	12.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.63	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	81	342	64	25	12	100%	5.8	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	3.6%	4.70	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	773	3264	641	207	98	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.24	3.90	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	54	25	100%	6.0	19.7%	6.3%	13.3%	3.0%	4.24	3.90	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		62	40	226	955	163	84	20	65%	3.6	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	2.1%	3.50	3.96	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	35	200	845	144	75	18	65%	3.6	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	2.1%	3.50	3.96	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darwin Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	18.3%	5.8%	3.0%	—	4.17	19.8%	13.9%	349	-0.14	—	—	—
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	86
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	81
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	80
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	80
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	79
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Trey McGough L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	15.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.278	3.37	21.4%	13.3%	99	-0.35	2.83	227	78
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	78
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	77
Matt Bower L 2017 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP-	4.93	15.6%	6.7%	4.2%	.325	4.60	18.7%	2.3%	15	-0.33	3.31	239	77
Wes Benjamin L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.1%	3.6%	.321	4.52	16.4%	8.1%	334	+0.14	3.87	666	76
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.67	279	76
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	75
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	102	19.6%	6.3%	1.24	4.35
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73