Josh Hendrickson
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 124
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
K%21.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 4 | 37 | 143 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 25% | 2.3 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 1.95 | 3.99 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 4 | 37 | 143 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 25% | 2.3 | 30.8% | 5.6% | 25.2% | 2.1% | 1.95 | 2.42 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 14 | 96 | 387 | 93 | 32 | 15 | 67% | 4.6 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 4.28 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 14 | 96 | 387 | 93 | 32 | 15 | 67% | 4.6 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 3.9% | 3.57 | 4.20 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 34 | 152 | 38 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 3.4 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 5.77 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 34 | 152 | 38 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 3.4 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 5.77 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 108 | 506 | 91 | 49 | 25 | 88% | 4.5 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.58 | 6.14 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 108 | 506 | 91 | 49 | 25 | 88% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 5.58 | 5.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 13 | 9 | 64 | 268 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 69% | 4.9 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 75 | 316 | 68 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.8 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 139 | 584 | 119 | 48 | 16 | — | — | 20.5% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 7 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 65 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 71 | 299 | 64 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.42 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 85 | 28 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 58 | 339 | 1456 | 254 | 129 | 57 | 69% | 4.0 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.90 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 34 | 200 | 859 | 150 | 76 | 34 | 69% | 4.0 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Hendrickson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.81 | 21.5% | 11.6% | 138 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 80 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .325 | 3.24 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 49 | -1.64 | 3.24 | 298 | 79 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 311 | 74 |
| Everett Teaford L 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 73 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 73 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 72 |
| Chipper Smith L 2023 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 71 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 71 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 70 |
| Eric Wooten L 2023 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 70 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 70 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.20 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 118 | 69 |
| John Anderson L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 69 |
| James Gillheeney L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 69 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 69 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 68 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 67 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 67 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.06 | 3.58 | 307 | 67 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 71 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 1.31 | 4.70 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |