Josh Hendrickson

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX4 levels	10	10	34	5.77	3.97	25.0%	11.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 10.9% · FIP 5.04
2023	25	MIX2 levels	24	21	108	5.58	5.79	18.0%	9.7%	—	K 14.7% · BB 10.3% · FIP 6.25
2026	28	MIX2 levels	25	19	116	4.72	3.93	22.2%	5.5%	2.0	K 18.9% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.39
2027PROJ	29	MLBHOU	9	9	52	4.49	4.49	19.2%	5.4%	0.5
2028PROJ76% MLB	30	MLBHOU	9	9	54	4.58	4.65	19.3%	6.1%	0.5
2029PROJ82% MLB	31	MLBHOU	8	8	51	4.72	4.82	19.2%	6.7%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsRoy Merritt (age 30) · John Bale (age 29) · Brad Mills (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%19.2%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	4	37	143	44	8	3	25%	2.3	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	3.1%	1.95	3.80	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	4	37	143	44	8	3	25%	2.3	30.8%	5.6%	25.2%	2.1%	1.95	2.42	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	14	96	387	93	32	15	67%	4.6	19.6%	7.9%	11.7%	3.9%	3.57	4.60	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	14	96	387	93	32	15	67%	4.6	24.0%	8.3%	15.8%	3.9%	3.57	4.20	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	34	152	38	18	4	100%	3.4	17.8%	10.9%	6.9%	3.8%	5.77	5.04	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	34	152	38	18	4	100%	3.4	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.6%	5.77	3.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	108	506	91	49	25	88%	4.5	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	5.6%	5.58	6.25	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	108	506	91	49	25	88%	4.5	18.0%	9.7%	8.3%	4.9%	5.58	5.79	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	116	492	109	27	18	76%	4.7	18.9%	5.0%	13.8%	4.1%	4.72	4.39	+1.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	116	492	109	27	18	76%	4.7	18.9%	5.0%	13.8%	4.1%	4.72	4.39	+1.4
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	116	492	109	27	18	76%	4.7	22.2%	5.5%	16.7%	3.7%	4.72	3.93	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	3	9	3	0	0	0%	1.3	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	3.38	0.85	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	HOU	9	9	52	220	42	12	8	100%	5.8	19.2%	5.4%	13.8%	3.5%	4.49	4.49	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	71	299	58	18	11	100%	5.9	19.3%	6.1%	13.2%	3.7%	4.58	4.65	+0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	266	51	18	10	100%	6.3	19.2%	6.7%	12.5%	3.9%	4.72	4.82	+0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	44	14	8	100%	6.0	19.3%	6.1%	13.2%	3.7%	4.58	4.65	+0.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	41	14	8	100%	6.4	19.2%	6.7%	12.5%	3.9%	4.72	4.82	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	17	108	452	88	28	17	89%	5.7	19.5%	6.2%	13.2%	3.7%	4.62	4.27	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	840	164	52	32	90%	5.5	19.5%	6.2%	13.2%	3.7%	4.62	4.27	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		96	68	391	1680	301	134	74	71%	4.1	17.9%	8.0%	10.0%	4.4%	4.51	5.01	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	35	200	859	154	68	38	71%	4.1	17.9%	8.0%	10.0%	4.4%	4.51	5.01	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 114 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.39 (+0.39)K% 21.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.860	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×0.900	5.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 98 IPFIP 5.59 → 6.37 (+0.78)K% 16.9% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.92%	—	×0.810	13.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.01%	—	×1.100	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	5.05%	÷1.050	×1.200	5.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 5.59 → 6.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 10 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.20 (+0.28)K% 27.5% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.860	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.69%	—	×0.900	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.028	×1.100	4.20%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 18 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.04 (+0.74)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.98%	—	×0.810	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.89%	—	×1.100	10.88%
HR / BF /BF	3.30%	÷1.051	×1.200	3.77%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 7 IPFIP 5.82 → 7.43 (+1.61)K% 22.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.770	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.58%	—	×1.150	25.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.881	×1.250	4.58%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 5.82 → 7.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 72 IPFIP 4.44 → 4.64 (+0.20)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.58%	—	×0.810	17.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×1.100	7.91%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷1.344	×1.200	3.67%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 20 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.46 (+1.36)K% 36.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.770	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.150	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.004	×1.250	4.98%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 4 IPFIP 5.63 → 5.98 (+0.34)K% 15.0% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.880	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	30.00%	—	×1.050	31.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 5.63 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hendrickson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	19.2%	5.4%	3.5%	—	4.73	19.2%	12.9%	134	+0.24	—	—	—
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	77
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	74
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	66
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	65
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	63
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	265	63
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	62
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	61
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	59
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	57
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	56
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	56
Pat Misch L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	28	SP-	3.50	14.5%	1.9%	2.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	55
David Rollins L 2018 · 5.68 FIP	28	SP	5.68	15.9%	3.4%	6.4%	.435	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	132	55
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	55
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	55
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	54
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	53
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	71	19.3%	6.0%	1.41	4.57
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*