Jackson Humphries
P
Lake County Captains
Age 22
LHP
6'1" / 211 lbs
A+
peak 0.6 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145154vR 163
ERA6.45
FIP6.45
K%19.1%
BB%21.8%
K-BB%-2.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 57 | 255 | 72 | 29 | 5 | 93% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 5.49 | 4.37 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 57 | 255 | 72 | 29 | 5 | 93% | 3.8 | 28.2% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 2.0% | 5.49 | 3.24 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 23 | 79 | 333 | 97 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 3.4 | 21.6% | 14.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.56 | 6.86 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 23 | 79 | 333 | 97 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 3.4 | 29.1% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 3.6% | 4.56 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 97 | 451 | 102 | 91 | 12 | 100% | 3.7 | 17.4% | 23.2% | -5.8% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 6.36 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 97 | 451 | 102 | 91 | 12 | 100% | 3.7 | 22.6% | 20.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 5.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 14 | 14 | 47 | 212 | 71 | 42 | 4 | 100% | 3.4 | 25.8% | 22.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 60 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.1% | 21.8% | -2.8% | 3.3% | 6.45 | 6.45 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.1% | 21.8% | -2.8% | 3.3% | 6.45 | 6.45 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 112 | 486 | 123 | 102 | 13 | — | — | 25.4% | 21.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.73 | 5.88 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.0% | 21.8% | -2.8% | 3.3% | 6.45 | 6.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 127 | 538 | 112 | 100 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.9% | 18.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.99 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 157 | 661 | 145 | 108 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.9% | 16.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.62 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 167 | 111 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 15.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 5.21 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 169 | 109 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 14.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.15 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 49 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.9% | 18.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.99 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 109 | 460 | 101 | 75 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.9% | 16.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.62 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 135 | 90 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 15.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 148 | 95 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 14.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 81 | 81 | 468 | 1975 | 441 | 311 | 63 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 15.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 4.95 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 133 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 15.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 77 | 280 | 1251 | 255 | 237 | 48 | 99% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 18.9% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 5.87 | -1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 55 | 200 | 893 | 182 | 169 | 34 | 99% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 18.9% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 5.87 | -1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Humphries (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.45 | 19.1% | 21.8% | 3.3% | — | 5.46 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 459 | -0.99 | — | — | — |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.6% | .265 | 4.74 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 89 | -0.73 | 4.14 | 328 | 82 |
| Luis De La Torre L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 3.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 173 | 81 |
| Frank Mozzicato L 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.97 | 16.1% | 20.0% | 3.1% | .247 | 7.33 | 19.4% | -1.6% | 48 | +1.36 | 4.87 | 405 | 79 |
| Noah Dean L 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.83 | 21.1% | 28.1% | 1.7% | .343 | 5.11 | 23.3% | 4.2% | 154 | -0.72 | 4.50 | 217 | 78 |
| Steve Hajjar L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.53 | 17.4% | 23.3% | 1.7% | .231 | 6.73 | 15.0% | -10.6% | 40 | +1.20 | 3.67 | 141 | 77 |
| Jacob Heatherly L 2024 · 6.27 FIP | 20 | SP | 6.27 | 18.1% | 27.2% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 192 | 77 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 6.15 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.15 | 16.3% | 15.7% | 4.4% | .212 | 5.18 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 195 | -0.97 | 4.60 | 308 | 74 |
| Nate Savino L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.70 | 16.8% | 18.8% | 3.0% | .244 | 4.55 | 14.8% | 0.8% | 105 | -1.15 | 4.14 | 150 | 74 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 11.9% | 15.1% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.29 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 97 | -1.10 | 4.11 | 158 | 72 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.86 | 13.6% | 16.7% | 3.3% | .209 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 128 | 71 |
| Erik Rivera L 2027 · 5.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.95 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.8% | .255 | 4.86 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 87 | -1.09 | 4.69 | 122 | 70 |
| Yu-Min Lin L 2026 · 6.24 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.24 | 15.6% | 13.1% | 5.1% | .333 | 4.84 | 12.9% | 1.3% | 76 | -1.40 | 2.72 | 450 | 68 |
| Matt Portland L 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.40 | 13.9% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.64 | 17.4% | 6.4% | 54 | -0.76 | 3.61 | 143 | 67 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 67 |
| Trey Ball L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.70 | 12.4% | 14.7% | 3.3% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.6% | 4.3% | 190 | -0.69 | 4.75 | 437 | 66 |
| Hayden Frank L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 12.4% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .377 | 5.29 | 17.2% | 3.0% | 53 | -0.18 | 5.29 | 109 | 66 |
| Russell Smith L 2027 · 5.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.45 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 4.3% | .272 | 4.52 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 107 | -0.93 | 3.89 | 175 | 66 |
| Franklyn Soriano L 2026 · 7.09 FIP | 22 | SP | 7.09 | 12.7% | 13.9% | 6.0% | .353 | 4.83 | 12.4% | 1.2% | 62 | -2.26 | 2.82 | 241 | 66 |
| Carlos Rodriguez L 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.76 | 15.9% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .394 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 121 | 65 |
| Matt Imhof L 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 15.9% | 21.3% | 2.3% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.99 | 131 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 145 | 21.8% | 16.7% | 1.24 | 5.63 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |