Jackson Humphries

Jackson Humphries P Lake County Captains

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 211 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139147vR 155

ERA6.43

FIP6.43

K%19.1%

BB%22.0%

K-BB%-2.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD2030

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	57	255	72	29	5	93%	3.8	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.3%	5.49	4.48	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	57	255	72	29	5	93%	3.8	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.3%	5.49	4.48	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	57	255	72	29	5	93%	3.8	28.2%	11.4%	16.9%	2.0%	5.49	3.24	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	79	333	97	41	12	100%	3.4	21.6%	14.5%	7.0%	5.6%	4.56	6.17	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	79	333	97	41	12	100%	3.4	21.6%	14.5%	7.0%	5.6%	4.56	6.17	—
2024	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	79	333	97	41	12	100%	3.4	29.1%	12.3%	16.8%	3.6%	4.56	4.18	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	97	451	102	91	12	100%	3.7	17.4%	23.2%	-5.8%	3.3%	5.12	6.37	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	26	26	97	451	102	91	12	100%	3.7	17.4%	23.2%	-5.8%	3.3%	5.12	6.37	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	26	26	97	451	102	91	12	100%	3.7	22.6%	20.2%	2.4%	2.7%	5.12	5.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	20	72	332	105	55	8	95%	3.4	24.4%	19.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.47	5.11	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	20	72	332	105	55	8	95%	3.4	24.4%	19.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.47	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	21	20	72	332	105	55	8	95%	3.4	31.6%	16.6%	15.1%	2.4%	5.47	3.85	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	8	32	6	7	1	100%	7.6	19.1%	22.0%	-2.9%	3.2%	6.43	6.43	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	80	364	111	62	9	—	—	30.5%	17.0%	13.5%	2.5%	5.57	5.24	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	127	538	112	100	17	100%	5.5	20.9%	18.6%	2.3%	3.2%	5.97	5.81	-1.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	157	661	145	109	21	100%	5.6	21.9%	16.4%	5.5%	3.1%	5.60	5.42	-0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	175	739	167	111	23	100%	5.8	22.6%	15.1%	7.5%	3.1%	5.33	5.18	-0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	175	739	169	110	23	100%	6.0	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.20	5.13	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	172	728	167	109	23	100%	5.9	22.9%	14.9%	8.0%	3.1%	5.18	5.16	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	167	706	161	106	23	100%	6.0	22.8%	15.1%	7.7%	3.2%	5.22	5.25	-0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	160	674	152	103	23	100%	5.9	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	3.4%	5.32	5.38	-0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	634	141	99	23	100%	6.0	22.2%	15.6%	6.6%	3.6%	5.46	5.56	-1.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	63	266	55	50	8	100%	5.7	20.9%	18.6%	2.3%	3.2%	5.97	5.81	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	109	460	101	76	14	100%	5.7	21.9%	16.4%	5.5%	3.1%	5.60	5.42	-0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	142	600	135	90	19	100%	5.9	22.6%	15.1%	7.5%	3.1%	5.33	5.18	-0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	153	646	148	96	20	100%	5.9	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.20	5.13	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	156	659	151	98	21	100%	6.0	22.9%	14.9%	8.0%	3.1%	5.18	5.16	-0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	154	650	148	98	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	15.1%	7.7%	3.2%	5.22	5.25	-0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	149	629	142	96	21	100%	6.0	22.5%	15.3%	7.2%	3.4%	5.32	5.38	-0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	141	595	132	93	21	100%	5.9	22.2%	15.6%	6.6%	3.6%	5.46	5.56	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	181	1066	4502	1012	696	146	100%	5.9	22.5%	15.5%	7.0%	3.2%	5.35	4.94	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	131	27	100%	5.9	22.5%	15.5%	7.0%	3.2%	5.35	4.94	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		85	83	305	1371	282	252	49	98%	3.6	20.5%	18.4%	2.2%	3.6%	5.13	5.66	-6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	54	200	898	184	165	32	98%	3.6	20.5%	18.4%	2.2%	3.6%	5.13	5.66	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Humphries (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.43	19.1%	22.0%	3.2%	—	5.44	21.9%	5.4%	459	-0.99	—	—	—
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	79
Steve Hajjar L 2023 · 5.59 FIP	22	SP	5.59	17.4%	23.3%	1.8%	.231	7.00	15.0%	-10.6%	40	+1.41	3.67	141	78
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	77
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	75
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	72
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	72
Frank Mozzicato L 2023 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	23.6%	18.9%	3.5%	.284	5.95	17.9%	-1.5%	266	+0.53	5.00	428	70
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	70
Diomede Sierra L 2022 · 5.23 FIP	20	SP	5.23	17.1%	16.1%	2.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	137	70
Levi Prater L 2021 · 7.22 FIP	22	SP-	7.22	23.1%	24.1%	5.5%	.338	6.76	15.8%	-7.7%	42	-0.46	6.76	110	68
Matt Portland L 2016 · 5.40 FIP	22	SP	5.40	13.9%	16.6%	2.5%	.322	4.64	17.4%	6.4%	54	-0.76	3.61	143	67
Edgardo Ibarra L 2023 · 5.26 FIP	20	SP-	5.26	14.4%	20.1%	1.5%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	5.26	142	67
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	66
Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP	5.33	13.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.345	4.28	18.5%	9.1%	268	-1.05	3.34	634	66
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	66
Hector Yan L 2021 · 6.64 FIP	22	SP-	6.64	19.0%	17.5%	5.3%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	268	65
Franklyn Soriano L 2017 · 7.09 FIP	22	SP	7.09	12.7%	13.9%	6.0%	.353	4.71	12.4%	1.2%	62	-2.38	2.82	241	65
Nate Bertness L 2018 · 5.34 FIP	22	SP-	5.34	14.2%	15.1%	2.8%	.314	5.35	20.3%	8.6%	62	+0.01	3.78	382	64
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	64
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	153	22.2%	16.0%	1.25	5.46
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32