Jackson Humphries
P
Lake County Captains
+0.0
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'1" / 211 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2030
ERA5.53
FIP5.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%15.9%
K-BB%4.8%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 15 | 14 | 57 | 255 | 72 | 29 | 5 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 5.49 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 23 | 79 | 333 | 97 | 41 | 12 | 21.6% | 14.5% | 5.8% | 4.56 | 6.30 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 26 | 26 | 97 | 451 | 102 | 91 | 12 | 17.4% | 23.2% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 6.38 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 2 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 84 | 65 | 13 | 20.6% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 5.53 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 106 | 443 | 95 | 69 | 13 | 21.5% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 109 | 69 | 16 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 139 | 588 | 130 | 71 | 18 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.86 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 145 | 72 | 20 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 153 | 74 | 21 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.66 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 30 | 163 | 687 | 156 | 76 | 21 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.67 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 155 | 76 | 22 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 29 | 159 | 670 | 151 | 75 | 21 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 154 | 650 | 145 | 73 | 21 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 27 | 148 | 627 | 139 | 71 | 21 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 143 | 602 | 131 | 69 | 21 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 124 | 67 | 20 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 116 | 65 | 20 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 107 | 62 | 19 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 5.22 | 5.30 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 65 | 242 | 1074 | 212 | 193 | 40 | 19.7% | 17.9% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 5.74 | -1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 54 | 200 | 888 | 175 | 160 | 33 | 19.7% | 17.9% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 5.74 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Humphries (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.53 | 20.6% | 15.8% | 3.3% | — | 4.88 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 413 | -0.65 | — | — | — |
| Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.8% | 19.9% | 2.3% | .270 | 4.87 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 312 | -0.15 | 4.25 | 414 | 88 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.5% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 239 | 86 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.38 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.22 | 4.21 | 170 | 85 |
| Herick Hernandez L 2025 · 6.07 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.07 | 22.1% | 17.7% | 4.7% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 6.07 | 103 | 85 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.56 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 150 | -1.63 | 3.30 | 240 | 85 |
| Tyler Pike L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 19.5% | 14.8% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.33 | 19.3% | 1.2% | 175 | -0.46 | 3.41 | 565 | 84 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 83 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 83 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 82 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 82 |
| Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 82 |
| Victor Payano L 2026 · 6.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.08 | 14.8% | 16.5% | 3.9% | .287 | 4.83 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 225 | -1.25 | 3.78 | 341 | 82 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.70 | 16.3% | 15.7% | 3.6% | .212 | 4.79 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 120 | -0.91 | 4.40 | 233 | 81 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 80 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 80 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 80 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .328 | 5.60 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.49 | 5.11 | 165 | 79 |
| Frank Mozzicato L 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.05 | 16.1% | 20.0% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 357 | 77 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 77 |
| Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.06 | 20.8% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 209 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| Totals | $8M | $50M | +$42M | ||