Luis Cesar — OGILVIE

Luis Cesar P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 183 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131139vR 147

ERA5.99

FIP5.99

K%18.6%

BB%19.7%

K-BB%-1.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	2	2	5	21	3	4	0	100%	2.5	14.3%	19.0%	-4.8%	0.0%	1.80	4.31	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	2	2	5	21	3	4	0	100%	2.5	14.3%	19.0%	-4.8%	0.0%	1.80	4.30	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	11	9	40	188	41	31	2	82%	3.6	14.8%	20.6%	-5.8%	1.5%	4.08	5.28	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	11	9	40	188	41	31	2	82%	3.6	14.8%	20.6%	-5.8%	1.5%	4.08	5.28	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	11	9	40	188	41	31	2	82%	3.6	21.8%	16.5%	5.3%	1.1%	4.08	4.03	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	10	47	196	38	31	4	83%	3.9	13.2%	19.8%	-6.6%	3.2%	2.30	6.24	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	10	47	196	38	31	4	83%	3.9	13.2%	19.8%	-6.6%	3.2%	2.30	6.24	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	12	10	47	196	38	31	4	83%	3.9	19.4%	15.8%	3.6%	2.0%	2.30	4.57	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	10	0	26	129	27	24	0	0%	2.6	14.2%	23.3%	-9.0%	0.0%	4.85	4.84	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	10	0	26	129	27	24	0	0%	2.6	14.2%	23.3%	-9.0%	0.0%	4.85	4.84	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	10	0	26	129	27	24	0	0%	2.6	20.9%	18.6%	2.3%	0.0%	4.85	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	18	0	26	139	32	32	2	0%	1.5	17.5%	28.0%	-10.4%	1.3%	7.18	5.90	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	18	0	26	139	32	32	2	0%	1.5	17.5%	28.0%	-10.4%	1.3%	7.18	5.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIA	4	0	6	28	4	4	1	0%	1.4	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	3.6%	12.71	5.66	—
2026	22	A RAW	MIA	12	0	18	97	23	23	1	0%	1.5	23.7%	23.7%	0.0%	1.0%	5.40	4.67	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIA	2	0	2	14	5	5	0	0%	1.1	35.7%	35.7%	0.0%	0.0%	7.71	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	42	0	44	185	37	31	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	16.5%	3.6%	2.9%	5.59	5.44	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	19	15	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	16.5%	3.6%	2.9%	5.59	5.44	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	22	91	18	15	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	16.5%	3.6%	2.9%	5.59	5.06	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	139	28	0%	1.1	20.1%	16.5%	3.6%	2.9%	5.59	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		53	21	144	673	99	150	11	40%	2.7	14.8%	22.3%	-7.6%	1.6%	4.12	5.57	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	29	200	935	138	209	15	40%	2.7	14.8%	22.3%	-7.6%	1.6%	4.12	5.57	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Cesar (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.99	18.6%	19.7%	2.9%	—	5.44	20.1%	3.6%	44	-0.55	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	77
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	77
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	76
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	75
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	75
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	75
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	75
Jack O'Loughlin L 2022 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	17.0%	13.7%	2.6%	.269	4.81	17.0%	6.8%	239	-0.02	3.78	348	75
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	75
Salvador Montano L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	22	SW	5.26	20.3%	22.7%	1.8%	.179	4.44	21.6%	0.8%	53	-0.82	4.44	116	74
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	74
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	74
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	74
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	73
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	73
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	73
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	73
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.7%	17.5%	1.11	5.72
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99