Marino Santy
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 24
LHP
5'11" / 170 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 131
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%20.1%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%6.4%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 10 | 9 | 24 | 121 | 31 | 25 | 0 | 90% | 2.4 | 17.4% | 25.8% | -8.4% | 0.0% | 3.33 | 4.90 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 10 | 9 | 24 | 121 | 31 | 25 | 0 | 90% | 2.4 | 25.6% | 20.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 3.33 | 3.63 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 8 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 12.8% | 43.5% | -30.7% | 0.0% | 3.45 | 7.53 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 8 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 34.8% | -15.9% | 0.0% | 3.45 | 6.04 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 16 | 75 | 343 | 100 | 59 | 1 | 73% | 3.4 | 21.6% | 20.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 3.12 | 4.08 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 16 | 75 | 343 | 100 | 59 | 1 | 73% | 3.4 | 29.2% | 17.2% | 12.0% | 0.3% | 3.12 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 8 | 73 | 335 | 79 | 46 | 5 | 30% | 2.7 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.80 | 4.93 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 8 | 73 | 335 | 79 | 46 | 5 | 30% | 2.7 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 3.80 | 3.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 0 | 30 | 153 | 24 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.1% | 24.1% | -12.0% | 0.7% | 9.00 | 5.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 0 | 30 | 153 | 24 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.7% | 20.9% | -5.2% | 0.7% | 9.00 | 5.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 24 | 0 | 40 | 161 | 59 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 29.8% | 13.8% | 16.1% | 0.8% | 1.36 | 2.78 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 68 | 280 | 83 | 37 | 4 | — | — | 29.6% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 1.5% | 2.86 | 3.69 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.36 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 106 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 37 | 258 | 1182 | 229 | 244 | 12 | 33% | 2.3 | 19.4% | 20.6% | -1.2% | 1.0% | 3.77 | 4.61 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 29 | 200 | 916 | 178 | 189 | 9 | 33% | 2.3 | 19.4% | 20.6% | -1.2% | 1.0% | 3.77 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marino Santy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.73 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 29 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.62 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | -0.12 | 4.27 | 156 | 86 |
| Matt Minnick L 2025 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 84 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.30 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -1.16 | 3.11 | 151 | 81 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.15 | 19.4% | 15.3% | 1.4% | .258 | 4.06 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 92 | -0.09 | 4.01 | 258 | 80 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 80 |
| Max Roberts L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.07 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.0% | .330 | 4.59 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 115 | -0.48 | 4.03 | 173 | 80 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 79 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.06 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 3.9% | .240 | 4.73 | 19.5% | 5.0% | 190 | -0.33 | 1.91 | 302 | 79 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.74 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.95 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 165 | 79 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 79 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 79 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .361 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 40 | -0.02 | 3.01 | 201 | 78 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 78 |
| John Kilichowski L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 78 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 78 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 77 |
| Erik Rivera L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 19.2% | 2.3% | .313 | 4.69 | 25.3% | 9.9% | 40 | -0.32 | 4.69 | 122 | 77 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 77 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 77 |
| Andre Wheeler L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.32 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 4.0% | .347 | 4.73 | 14.4% | 2.4% | 29 | -0.59 | 3.77 | 150 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 20.5% | 13.0% | 1.02 | 4.88 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |