Marino Santy

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	27	8	73	3.80	3.71	23.6%	13.7%	—	K 17.6% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.80
2025	23	A+CHC	22	0	30	9.00	5.13	15.7%	20.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 24.1% · FIP 5.53
2026	24	MIX2 levels	39	0	57	3.49	3.03	31.2%	15.0%	—	K 25.0% · BB 16.3% · FIP 3.91
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	1	0	1	5.26	5.26	23.1%	18.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCHC	22	0	23	5.15	5.14	23.4%	17.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCHC	27	0	28	5.10	5.11	23.4%	16.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Anderson Polanco (age 25) · Graeme Stinson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%23.1%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	10	9	24	121	31	25	0	90%	2.4	17.4%	25.8%	-8.4%	0.0%	3.33	4.90	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	10	9	24	121	31	25	0	90%	2.4	25.6%	20.7%	5.0%	0.0%	3.33	3.63	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	8	4	16	69	13	24	0	50%	2.0	12.8%	43.5%	-30.7%	0.0%	3.45	7.53	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	8	4	16	69	13	24	0	50%	2.0	18.8%	34.8%	-15.9%	0.0%	3.45	6.04	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	16	75	343	100	59	1	73%	3.4	21.6%	20.3%	1.3%	0.4%	3.12	4.07	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	16	75	343	100	59	1	73%	3.4	29.2%	17.2%	12.0%	0.3%	3.12	2.97	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	8	73	335	79	46	5	30%	2.7	17.6%	16.1%	1.6%	2.1%	3.80	4.80	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	8	73	335	79	46	5	30%	2.7	17.6%	16.1%	1.6%	2.1%	3.80	4.80	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	8	73	335	79	46	5	30%	2.7	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	1.5%	3.80	3.71	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	0	30	153	24	32	1	0%	1.4	12.1%	24.1%	-12.0%	0.7%	9.00	5.53	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	0	30	153	24	32	1	0%	1.4	12.1%	24.1%	-12.0%	0.7%	9.00	5.53	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	22	0	30	153	24	32	1	0%	1.4	15.7%	20.9%	-5.2%	0.7%	9.00	5.13	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	247	77	37	3	0%	1.5	25.0%	16.3%	8.7%	1.6%	3.49	3.91	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	247	77	37	3	0%	1.5	25.0%	16.3%	8.7%	1.6%	3.49	3.91	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	57	247	77	37	3	0%	1.5	31.2%	15.0%	16.2%	1.2%	3.49	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	18.3%	4.8%	2.6%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	52	218	51	38	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	17.4%	6.0%	2.6%	5.15	5.14	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	43	0	45	189	44	32	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.8%	6.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.11	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	39	0	41	173	40	29	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	16.6%	6.7%	2.8%	5.12	5.16	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	36	0	38	159	37	26	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	16.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.20	5.27	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	22	0	23	97	23	17	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	17.4%	6.0%	2.6%	5.15	5.14	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	27	0	28	118	28	20	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.8%	6.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.11	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	31	131	30	22	4	0%	1.0	23.3%	16.6%	6.7%	2.8%	5.12	5.16	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	31	131	30	22	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	16.6%	6.4%	3.0%	5.20	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	0	113	476	111	80	13	0%	1.1	23.3%	16.8%	6.4%	2.8%	5.14	4.79	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	142	23	0%	1.1	23.3%	16.8%	6.4%	2.8%	5.14	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		128	37	275	1268	243	262	13	29%	2.1	19.2%	20.6%	-1.4%	1.1%	4.06	4.67	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	27	200	922	177	190	10	29%	2.1	19.2%	20.6%	-1.4%	1.1%	4.06	4.67	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 52 IPFIP 3.08 → 3.91 (+0.83)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.87%	—	×0.810	25.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.78%	—	×1.100	16.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 30 IPFIP 4.78 → 5.53 (+0.75)K% 15.7% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.69%	—	×0.770	12.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.92%	—	×1.150	24.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.106	×1.250	0.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 4.78 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 44 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.61 (+1.30)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.908	×1.300	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 29 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.08 (+0.87)K% 15.9% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.91%	—	×0.770	12.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.150	14.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.909	×1.250	2.08%

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 75 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.07 (+1.09)K% 29.2% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.15%	—	×0.740	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.20%	—	×1.180	20.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.29%	÷0.957	×1.300	0.40%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Cubs · 16 IPFIP 5.91 → 7.53 (+1.61)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.84%	—	×0.680	12.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	34.78%	—	×1.250	43.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.963	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 5.91 → 7.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Cubs Blue · 24 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.90 (+1.35)K% 25.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.62%	—	×0.680	17.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.66%	—	×1.250	25.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.528	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marino Santy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	5.14	23.3%	6.4%	137	-0.12	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	80
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	79
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	78
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	78
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	77
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	76
Evan Shawver L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	24	SW	4.08	19.4%	15.3%	1.2%	.258	4.05	18.2%	9.0%	115	-0.03	3.79	281	76
Carlos Rey L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	22	SU	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	4.30	25.5%	5.4%	108	-0.17	3.90	165	75
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	75
Graham Osman L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	23	SU	4.36	17.8%	19.0%	0.6%	.307	5.84	16.4%	-0.4%	98	+1.48	4.36	164	74
Ismael Guillón L 2017 · 4.35 FIP	25	SU	4.35	19.8%	14.8%	1.9%	.342	4.62	20.7%	8.4%	30	+0.27	4.35	193	74
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	73
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	73
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	73
Grant Wolfram L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	22.1%	17.8%	1.5%	.319	3.41	23.3%	13.9%	178	-0.90	2.36	423	73
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	73
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	72
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	72
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	72
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	23.2%	17.3%	1.04	5.17
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*