Marino Santy — OGILVIE

Marino Santy P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128137vR 145

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%16.8%

BB%18.7%

K-BB%-1.9%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	10	9	24	121	31	25	0	90%	2.4	17.4%	25.8%	-8.4%	0.0%	3.33	4.90	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	10	9	24	121	31	25	0	90%	2.4	25.6%	20.7%	5.0%	0.0%	3.33	3.63	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	8	4	16	69	13	24	0	50%	2.0	12.8%	43.5%	-30.7%	0.0%	3.45	7.53	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	8	4	16	69	13	24	0	50%	2.0	18.8%	34.8%	-15.9%	0.0%	3.45	6.04	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	16	75	343	100	59	1	73%	3.4	21.6%	20.3%	1.3%	0.4%	3.12	4.07	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	16	75	343	100	59	1	73%	3.4	21.6%	20.3%	1.3%	0.4%	3.12	4.07	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	16	75	343	100	59	1	73%	3.4	29.2%	17.2%	12.0%	0.3%	3.12	2.97	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	8	73	335	79	46	5	30%	2.7	17.6%	16.1%	1.6%	2.1%	3.80	4.80	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	8	73	335	79	46	5	30%	2.7	17.6%	16.1%	1.6%	2.1%	3.80	4.80	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	8	73	335	79	46	5	30%	2.7	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	1.5%	3.80	3.71	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	0	30	153	24	32	1	0%	1.4	12.1%	24.1%	-12.0%	0.7%	9.00	5.53	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	0	30	153	24	32	1	0%	1.4	12.1%	24.1%	-12.0%	0.7%	9.00	5.53	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	22	0	30	153	24	32	1	0%	1.4	15.7%	20.9%	-5.2%	0.7%	9.00	5.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	38	0	56	241	77	36	3	0%	1.5	25.7%	16.2%	9.5%	1.6%	3.38	3.87	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	38	0	56	241	77	36	3	0%	1.5	25.7%	16.2%	9.5%	1.6%	3.38	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	2	0	5	17	6	3	0	0%	2.5	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	0.00	2.35	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CHC	36	0	51	224	71	33	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	14.7%	17.0%	1.3%	3.71	3.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	52	45	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	2.6%	5.52	5.39	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	55	44	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.33	5.26	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	63	0	66	278	55	42	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	15.2%	4.4%	2.7%	5.26	5.25	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	269	53	41	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	15.2%	4.4%	2.8%	5.28	5.31	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	28	0	29	122	23	20	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.0%	2.5%	2.6%	5.52	5.39	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	43	0	45	190	37	29	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.33	5.26	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	49	0	51	215	42	33	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	15.2%	4.4%	2.7%	5.26	5.25	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	51	0	54	228	45	35	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	15.2%	4.4%	2.8%	5.28	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	0	179	755	146	116	21	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.33	4.91	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	130	23	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.33	4.91	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		127	37	274	1262	243	260	13	29%	2.2	19.3%	20.6%	-1.4%	1.1%	4.04	4.67	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	27	200	920	177	190	10	29%	2.2	19.3%	20.6%	-1.4%	1.1%	4.04	4.67	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marino Santy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	16.8%	18.7%	2.6%	—	5.30	19.2%	3.6%	199	-0.57	—	—	—
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	84
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	84
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	83
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	82
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	82
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	81
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	81
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	81
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	80
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Max Schuh L 2016 · 6.12 FIP	24	SU	6.12	16.1%	17.9%	3.9%	.389	4.70	19.2%	5.6%	48	-1.42	3.10	118	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	79
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	78
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	77
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	76
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	76
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	58	19.0%	15.8%	1.05	5.40
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91