Carlos Rey

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	39	59	3.20	3.27	34.6%	19.4%	—	K 26.1% · BB 22.0% · FIP 4.47
2025	23	MIX2 levels	48	61	3.82	2.92	28.8%	14.7%	—	K 22.2% · BB 18.8% · FIP 3.90
2026	24	AAARI	51	55	3.79	3.70	35.5%	19.4%	—	K 28.7% · BB 21.3% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	1	1	5.21	5.21	26.8%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBARI	22	23	5.11	5.10	26.7%	18.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	28	29	5.07	5.08	26.4%	18.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsChristian Chamberlain (age 24) · C.J. Widger (age 25) · Ben Harris (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%26.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	7	29	6	7	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	24.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.41	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	7	29	6	7	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	24.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	263	91	51	3	0%	1.5	26.1%	22.0%	4.1%	1.4%	3.20	4.47	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	263	91	51	3	0%	1.5	26.1%	22.0%	4.1%	1.4%	3.20	4.47	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	263	91	51	3	0%	1.5	34.6%	19.4%	15.2%	1.1%	3.20	3.27	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	61	278	80	41	2	0%	1.3	22.2%	18.8%	3.5%	0.5%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	61	278	80	41	2	0%	1.3	22.2%	18.8%	3.5%	0.5%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	61	278	80	41	2	0%	1.3	28.8%	14.7%	14.0%	0.7%	3.82	2.92	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	51	0	55	248	88	48	5	0%	1.1	28.7%	21.3%	7.5%	2.4%	3.79	4.70	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	51	0	55	248	88	48	5	0%	1.1	28.7%	21.3%	7.5%	2.4%	3.79	4.70	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	51	0	55	248	88	48	5	0%	1.1	35.5%	19.4%	16.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	26.8%	20.0%	6.8%	2.7%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	50	0	53	223	60	42	6	0%	1.1	26.7%	18.9%	7.8%	2.7%	5.11	5.10	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	46	195	51	35	5	0%	1.0	26.4%	18.2%	8.2%	2.8%	5.07	5.08	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	40	0	42	179	47	32	5	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.9%	8.2%	2.9%	5.09	5.13	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	37	0	39	164	42	29	5	0%	1.1	25.9%	17.9%	7.9%	3.0%	5.17	5.24	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	22	0	23	97	26	18	3	0%	1.0	26.7%	18.9%	7.8%	2.7%	5.11	5.10	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	32	22	3	0%	1.0	26.4%	18.2%	8.2%	2.8%	5.07	5.08	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	32	135	35	24	4	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.9%	8.2%	2.9%	5.09	5.13	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	32	135	35	24	4	0%	1.1	25.9%	17.9%	7.9%	3.0%	5.17	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	116	490	129	89	14	0%	1.0	26.3%	18.2%	8.1%	2.9%	5.11	4.76	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	222	153	24	0%	1.1	26.3%	18.2%	8.1%	2.9%	5.11	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		145	0	182	818	208	170	11	0%	1.3	25.4%	20.8%	4.6%	1.4%	3.61	4.34	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	0	200	899	228	187	12	0%	1.3	25.4%	20.8%	4.6%	1.4%	3.61	4.34	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 55 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.70 (+1.04)K% 35.5% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.48%	—	×0.810	28.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.35%	—	×1.100	21.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 53 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.90 (+0.94)K% 28.9% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.87%	—	×0.770	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.32%	—	×1.150	18.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.42%	÷0.968	×1.250	0.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 8 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.15 (+0.38)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.810	22.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.100	5.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.333	×1.200	2.31%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 57 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.47 (+1.32)K% 35.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.22%	—	×0.740	26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.62%	—	×1.180	21.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷1.102	×1.300	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL D-backs Red · 7 IPFIP 4.41 → 5.73 (+1.32)K% 20.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.680	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.14%	—	×1.250	30.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.918	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	26.8%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.10	26.5%	8.1%	141	-0.11	—	—	—
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	86
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	81
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	81
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	80
Zach Warren L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	29.4%	18.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.2%	-8.3%	23	+1.03	2.84	184	79
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	79
Riley Martin L 2023 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	29.1%	16.6%	2.5%	.366	3.47	27.3%	14.2%	124	-0.66	3.23	266	78
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	78
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	76
Grant Wolfram L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	22.1%	17.8%	1.5%	.319	3.41	23.3%	13.9%	178	-0.90	2.36	423	76
Erik Sabrowski L 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	24.7%	21.5%	1.4%	.267	3.05	33.3%	17.7%	115	-1.48	2.56	165	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	75
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	74
Chris Wright L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	24.4%	17.3%	2.7%	.360	4.65	20.0%	0.9%	17	-0.08	3.03	169	74
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	74
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.21	23.7%	9.6%	137	-0.78	3.98	288	74
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	74
Angel Perdomo L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	30.3%	15.6%	2.9%	.308	3.27	36.7%	22.6%	63	-0.86	2.82	540	74
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	74
Justin Kelly L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	20.6%	18.1%	0.7%	.275	3.56	23.9%	7.9%	30	-0.46	3.51	160	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	50	26.5%	18.8%	1.08	5.14
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*