Carlos Rey
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122131vR 140
ERA5.39
FIP5.39
K%23.2%
BB%19.7%
K-BB%3.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 24.1% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 24.1% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 263 | 91 | 51 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.1% | 22.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 263 | 91 | 51 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 34.6% | 19.4% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 3.20 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 80 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 3.82 | 3.91 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 80 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.8% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 0.7% | 3.82 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 32 | 0 | 31 | 143 | 57 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 24.6% | 7.7% | 0.8% | 3.48 | 3.95 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 66 | 56 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 98 | 427 | 123 | 88 | 8 | — | — | 28.8% | 20.6% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 4.79 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.2% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 5.39 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 68 | 49 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 17.0% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 5.13 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 68 | 47 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 5.01 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 17.0% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 5.13 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 5.01 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 77 | 324 | 77 | 54 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 16.7% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.62 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 141 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 16.7% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 0 | 158 | 713 | 183 | 152 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 21.3% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 3.52 | 4.12 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 0 | 200 | 901 | 231 | 192 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 21.3% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 3.52 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Rey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 23.2% | 19.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.99 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 136 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Gil Luna L 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 22.5% | 24.5% | 1.9% | .303 | 5.05 | 19.7% | -6.0% | 73 | -0.31 | 4.57 | 113 | 87 |
| Ben Harris L 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.54 | 23.8% | 19.6% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.17 | 21.6% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.37 | 3.02 | 183 | 86 |
| Caleb Frare L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.53 | 22.6% | 21.3% | 3.0% | .307 | 3.04 | 28.0% | 15.6% | 80 | -2.49 | 2.26 | 237 | 85 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.4% | .238 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 0.5% | 43 | -0.62 | 3.91 | 148 | 84 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.52 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.51 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.01 | 4.30 | 128 | 83 |
| Jimmy Burnette L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 25.5% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .336 | 3.66 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 59 | -0.97 | 3.06 | 158 | 83 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 83 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.74 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.95 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 165 | 82 |
| Sam Selman L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 20.9% | 17.3% | 1.8% | .346 | 3.31 | 26.1% | 11.1% | 128 | -1.18 | 2.24 | 353 | 81 |
| Dillon Larsen L 2026 · 6.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.31 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.57 | 18.0% | -4.1% | 91 | -1.74 | 4.04 | 120 | 81 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 81 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 2.4% | .315 | 4.92 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.28 | 127 | 81 |
| Erik Rivera L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 19.2% | 2.3% | .313 | 4.69 | 25.3% | 9.9% | 40 | -0.32 | 4.69 | 122 | 79 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.30 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -1.16 | 3.11 | 151 | 79 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 20.0% | 2.4% | .361 | 4.78 | 18.5% | 5.2% | 136 | -0.27 | 4.19 | 151 | 79 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.37 | 3.22 | 346 | 79 |
| Caden Monke L 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.28 | 19.0% | 19.3% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.73 | 24.7% | 3.3% | 34 | -1.55 | 3.73 | 152 | 79 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .294 | 3.70 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.22 | 2.65 | 160 | 79 |
| Caleb Wurster L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 2.7% | .241 | 10.79 | 13.9% | -5.0% | 11 | +6.30 | 3.44 | 100 | 79 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 23.6% | 17.7% | 0.99 | 5.18 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |