Carlos Rey
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%9.9%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
STUF5050
CTRL2020
CMD4040
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 39 | 0 | 59 | 263 | 91 | 51 | 3 | 26.1% | 22.0% | 1.4% | 3.20 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 48 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 80 | 41 | 2 | 22.2% | 18.8% | 0.5% | 3.82 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 16.88 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 54 | 36 | 6 | 23.3% | 15.7% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 57 | 250 | 61 | 43 | 7 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 55 | 33 | 6 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 56 | 32 | 6 | 23.9% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 55 | 31 | 6 | 23.9% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 30 | 6 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 53 | 30 | 6 | 23.7% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 51 | 29 | 6 | 23.5% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 48 | 28 | 6 | 23.3% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 46 | 28 | 6 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 43 | 27 | 6 | 22.7% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 37 | 25 | 5 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 34 | 23 | 5 | 21.5% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 130 | 590 | 143 | 124 | 6 | 24.3% | 21.0% | 1.1% | 3.81 | 4.29 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 908 | 220 | 191 | 9 | 24.3% | 21.0% | 1.1% | 3.81 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Rey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 23.3% | 15.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.62 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 165 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | .289 | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.60 | 136 | 92 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 89 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.34 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 346 | 87 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.54 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .329 | 5.77 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.23 | 4.54 | 107 | 87 |
| Larson Kindreich L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.27 | 21.5% | 18.8% | 2.9% | .269 | 4.70 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 79 | -0.57 | 4.16 | 214 | 86 |
| Zach Warren L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 24.0% | 17.0% | 1.0% | .299 | 4.63 | 24.6% | 4.2% | 67 | +0.83 | 2.84 | 184 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 85 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.46 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -0.97 | 3.11 | 151 | 85 |
| Andy Oliver L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 84 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.2% | .238 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 0.5% | 43 | -0.51 | 3.91 | 148 | 84 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 84 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 83 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 83 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 170 | 83 |
| Tommy Vail L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.69 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .237 | 4.86 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.17 | 3.69 | 151 | 83 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 83 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.76 | 20.1% | 16.0% | 0.6% | .291 | 5.02 | 19.0% | -0.7% | 50 | +1.26 | 3.76 | 102 | 82 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.65 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .267 | 4.55 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.10 | 4.22 | 128 | 82 |
| Caleb Wurster L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.15 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 2.1% | .241 | 10.23 | 13.9% | -5.0% | 11 | +6.08 | 3.42 | 100 | 82 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.