Carlos Rey — OGILVIE

Carlos Rey P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%23.2%

BB%21.2%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	7	29	6	7	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	24.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.41	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	7	29	6	7	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	24.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.41	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	7	29	6	7	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	24.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	263	91	51	3	0%	1.5	26.1%	22.0%	4.1%	1.4%	3.20	4.47	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	263	91	51	3	0%	1.5	26.1%	22.0%	4.1%	1.4%	3.20	4.47	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	263	91	51	3	0%	1.5	34.6%	19.4%	15.2%	1.1%	3.20	3.27	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	61	278	80	41	2	0%	1.3	22.2%	18.8%	3.5%	0.5%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	61	278	80	41	2	0%	1.3	22.2%	18.8%	3.5%	0.5%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	61	278	80	41	2	0%	1.3	28.8%	14.7%	14.0%	0.7%	3.82	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	51	0	55	248	88	48	5	0%	1.1	28.7%	21.3%	7.5%	2.4%	3.79	4.70	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	51	0	55	248	88	48	5	0%	1.1	28.7%	21.3%	7.5%	2.4%	3.79	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	51	0	55	248	88	48	5	0%	1.1	35.5%	19.4%	16.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.66	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	6	24	6	5	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	21.2%	2.1%	2.5%	5.58	5.58	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	60	272	94	53	6	—	—	34.4%	19.5%	14.9%	2.1%	3.95	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	65	0	68	287	68	52	7	0%	1.0	23.6%	18.1%	5.6%	2.6%	5.29	5.17	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	65	0	68	287	68	50	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	17.3%	6.5%	2.6%	5.14	5.09	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	64	0	67	283	67	48	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	17.0%	6.8%	2.7%	5.09	5.09	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	62	0	65	274	65	47	8	0%	1.0	23.6%	17.0%	6.7%	2.8%	5.12	5.15	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	29	0	30	127	30	23	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	18.1%	5.6%	2.6%	5.29	5.17	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	43	0	45	190	45	33	5	0%	1.0	23.8%	17.3%	6.5%	2.6%	5.14	5.09	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	52	37	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	17.0%	6.8%	2.7%	5.09	5.09	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	55	39	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	17.0%	6.7%	2.8%	5.12	5.15	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	182	133	20	0%	1.0	23.7%	17.3%	6.5%	2.7%	5.14	4.74	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	146	22	0%	1.1	23.7%	17.3%	6.5%	2.7%	5.14	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		145	0	182	818	208	170	11	0%	1.3	25.4%	20.8%	4.6%	1.4%	3.61	4.34	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	0	200	899	228	187	12	0%	1.3	25.4%	20.8%	4.6%	1.4%	3.61	4.34	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	23.2%	21.2%	2.5%	—	5.12	23.7%	6.3%	203	-0.46	—	—	—
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	88
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.32	22.4%	2.6%	76	+0.56	3.06	183	86
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	86
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	85
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	85
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	83
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	82
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	79
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	79
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	79
Kumar Nambiar L 2022 · 4.75 FIP	24	SU	4.75	18.5%	14.3%	2.6%	.277	4.94	14.0%	1.0%	60	+0.19	3.10	221	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Estevan Gonzalez L 2016 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	16.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.240	5.21	12.1%	-1.2%	58	+0.63	4.58	195	78
Chris Wright L 2023 · 4.80 FIP	24	SU	4.80	23.6%	17.3%	2.7%	.360	4.65	20.0%	0.9%	17	-0.15	3.03	169	78
Yoan Aybar L 2021 · 5.91 FIP	24	SU	5.91	19.2%	16.2%	4.3%	.323	6.04	20.9%	1.2%	41	+0.13	3.41	166	76
Bailey Horn L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	24.7%	15.6%	3.1%	.320	4.41	21.4%	10.9%	163	-0.30	3.96	265	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	23.6%	18.1%	1.01	5.24
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91