Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 9 | 9 | 48 | 200 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 12.2% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.62 | 4.33 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 9 | 9 | 48 | 200 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 3.29 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 27 | 25 | 127 | 536 | 156 | 54 | 4 | 93% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 3.19 | 3.36 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 27 | 25 | 127 | 536 | 156 | 54 | 4 | 93% | 4.7 | 29.1% | 10.1% | 19.0% | 0.7% | 3.19 | 2.33 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 16 | 16 | 75 | 341 | 65 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.7% | 14.5% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 3.70 | 4.62 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 16 | 16 | 75 | 341 | 65 | 43 | 7 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 12.6% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 4.29 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 26 | 12 | 79 | 340 | 100 | 35 | 5 | 46% | 3.1 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.4% | 3.63 | 3.47 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 26 | 12 | 79 | 340 | 100 | 35 | 5 | 46% | 3.1 | 29.4% | 10.3% | 19.1% | 1.5% | 3.63 | 2.72 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 69 | 306 | 107 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.3% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.17 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 69 | 306 | 107 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.0% | 14.7% | 20.3% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 3.46 | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.3% | 31.6% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 20.25 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.3% | 31.6% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 20.25 | 6.10 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 3% | 0.9 | 38.2% | 13.9% | 24.3% | 4.2% | 4.06 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 53 | 18 | 5 | 3% | 0.9 | 40.5% | 13.7% | 26.7% | 3.8% | 4.06 | 3.52 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 2 | 34 | 139 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 8% | 1.3 | 35.3% | 14.3% | 21.0% | 1.6% | 1.85 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 2 | 34 | 139 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 8% | 1.3 | 40.3% | 12.9% | 27.3% | 1.4% | 1.85 | 2.16 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 79 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.0% | 11.6% | 23.4% | 2.3% | 3.48 | 2.87 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 79 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.9% | 11.2% | 25.7% | 2.3% | 3.48 | 2.69 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 18 | 84 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 20.1% | -3.3% | 4.7% | 5.50 | 6.82 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 18 | 84 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 19.0% | -1.2% | 4.8% | 5.50 | 6.99 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 10 | 0 | 12 | 72 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.7% | 20.4% | -5.8% | 4.6% | 12.00 | 6.96 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAA | 140 | 0 | 147 | 621 | 162 | 72 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.17 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.17 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 159 | 693 | 174 | 86 | 25 | — | — | 25.1% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.88 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 15 | 62 | 16 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 26.1% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.17 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 128 | 0 | 135 | 570 | 141 | 66 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 117 | 0 | 123 | 518 | 123 | 61 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.95 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.95 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 0 | 156 | 670 | 187 | 82 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 4.26 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 0 | 200 | 859 | 240 | 105 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 263 | 65 | 548 | 2382 | 563 | 319 | 49 | 25% | 2.1 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.94 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 24 | 200 | 869 | 205 | 116 | 18 | 25% | 2.1 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 3.76 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Angel Perdomo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 3.6% | — | 5.06 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 258 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 70 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 69 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 68 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.05 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.85 | 3.72 | 181 | 68 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 68 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 65 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.47 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 5.2% | .315 | 4.38 | 18.3% | 2.1% | 36 | -1.09 | 3.58 | 127 | 64 |
| Anthony Gose L 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.72 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .234 | 4.93 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | +0.21 | 3.88 | 207 | 64 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.63 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.2% | .286 | 5.07 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.44 | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 130 | 63 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 62 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 62 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 62 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 61 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 60 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 60 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 60 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.21 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .376 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 53 | +0.64 | 4.07 | 424 | 59 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.56 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 5.2% | .268 | 5.04 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 129 | -0.52 | 3.76 | 686 | 58 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.54 | 28.6% | 11.4% | 4.4% | .373 | 3.57 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 412 | -0.97 | 2.90 | 1,596 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 135 | 24.9% | 11.6% | 1.47 | 4.56 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |