Grant Wolfram
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.6
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'7" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.56
FIP3.99
xFIP2.11
SIERA1.62
K%23.2%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†6060
SI (41%)
CU (16%)
FB (55%)
SL-1.1 (30%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 8 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 10 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 25 | 9 | 69 | 308 | 73 | 30 | 3 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 1.0% | 4.28 | 3.65 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 17 | 14 | 66 | 303 | 99 | 34 | 11 | 25.2% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 4.21 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 39 | 0 | 57 | 260 | 71 | 42 | 3 | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.5% | 4.42 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 40 | 1 | 62 | 255 | 78 | 24 | 6 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 46 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 69 | 25 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 3.13 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 49 | 0 | 59 | 271 | 67 | 27 | 2 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 0.7% | 4.42 | 2.81 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 50 | 21 | 5 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 58 | 242 | 63 | 21 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 60 | 22 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 56 | 21 | 5 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 52 | 21 | 5 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.07 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 20 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | BAL | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 232 | 25 | 393 | 1725 | 394 | 207 | 38 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.91 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 13 | 200 | 878 | 201 | 105 | 19 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Wolfram (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.90 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 2.2% | — | 3.85 | 24.7% | 15.3% | 161 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 80 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2027 · 2.89 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.89 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 0.6% | .256 | 4.17 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 234 | +1.28 | 2.89 | 391 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 77 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 77 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 77 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 76 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 76 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.29 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.54 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.25 | 2.82 | 414 | 76 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 74 |
| Boone Logan L 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 74 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 146 | 74 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 74 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.72 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.76 | 1.36 | 350 | 74 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.04 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 0.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 120 | 73 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.488 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $16M | +$8M | ||