Ethan Lindow
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.8%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 8 | 8 | 28 | 121 | 34 | 12 | 2 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 26 | 16 | 111 | 448 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 19.8% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 2.52 | 2.97 | +2.9 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 18 | 15 | 85 | 350 | 82 | 22 | 16 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.81 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 27 | 19 | 117 | 487 | 98 | 30 | 12 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 4.18 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 23 | 17 | 95 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 18 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.91 | 6.36 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 89 | 37 | 13 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 89 | 37 | 13 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 87 | 36 | 13 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 83 | 35 | 13 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 80 | 34 | 13 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 75 | 34 | 12 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 71 | 33 | 12 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 73 | 29 | 12 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 67 | 28 | 11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 11 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 75 | 435 | 1822 | 319 | 140 | 67 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 3.74 | 4.61 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 837 | 147 | 64 | 31 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 3.74 | 4.61 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Lindow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.60 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 280 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.44 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.3% | .289 | 5.28 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | -0.16 | 5.28 | 128 | 84 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 83 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 81 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 81 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 81 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 81 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 79 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 77 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 77 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 77 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.48 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .338 | 5.81 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.33 | 2.94 | 486 | 76 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 75 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 75 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 75 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .270 | 3.79 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 267 | -1.38 | 2.72 | 455 | 75 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 74 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 74 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.47 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.67 | 3.12 | 691 | 73 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.06 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.20 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.92 | 379 | 72 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.11 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +1.03 | 4.11 | 182 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $10M | +$5M | ||