Ethan Lindow
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 124
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
K%22.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 8 | 8 | 28 | 121 | 34 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 4.33 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 8 | 8 | 28 | 121 | 34 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 28.1% | 9.9% | 18.2% | 1.7% | 4.55 | 2.88 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 16 | 111 | 448 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 62% | 4.3 | 19.8% | 5.8% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 2.52 | 3.19 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 16 | 111 | 448 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 62% | 4.3 | 26.6% | 4.9% | 21.7% | 0.9% | 2.52 | 2.02 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 15 | 85 | 350 | 82 | 22 | 16 | 83% | 4.7 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 4.9% | 3.81 | 5.15 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 15 | 85 | 350 | 82 | 22 | 16 | 83% | 4.7 | 23.4% | 6.3% | 17.1% | 4.6% | 3.81 | 4.39 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 117 | 487 | 98 | 30 | 12 | 70% | 4.3 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 117 | 487 | 98 | 30 | 12 | 70% | 4.3 | 20.1% | 6.2% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.53 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 23 | 17 | 95 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 18 | 74% | 4.1 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.91 | 7.04 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 23 | 17 | 95 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 18 | 74% | 4.1 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 4.91 | 5.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 62 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 60 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 55 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.37 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 82 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 102 | 75 | 435 | 1822 | 319 | 140 | 72 | 74% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 3.74 | 4.76 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 837 | 147 | 64 | 33 | 74% | 4.3 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 3.74 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Lindow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.74 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 126 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 79 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 76 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 75 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 73 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 72 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 72 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 72 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 72 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 71 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 71 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 71 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 70 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 70 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 70 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.90 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.13 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 70 | +0.23 | 4.25 | 227 | 70 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 69 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .301 | 3.75 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.60 | 3.14 | 691 | 69 |
| Michael Sansone L 2025 · 5.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.64 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 5.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 255 | 69 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.63 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 5.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 451 | 69 |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |