Lachlan Wells — OGILVIE

Lachlan Wells P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%18.6%

BB%4.5%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	10	9	47	185	49	11	4	90%	4.7	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	3.0%	2.09	4.18	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	10	9	47	185	49	11	4	90%	4.7	26.5%	5.9%	20.5%	2.2%	2.09	2.83	—
2016	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	12	71	282	63	16	4	100%	5.9	16.5%	6.7%	9.8%	1.5%	1.77	3.37	—
2016	19	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	12	71	282	63	16	4	100%	5.9	22.3%	5.7%	16.7%	1.4%	1.77	2.74	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	85	353	74	19	11	88%	5.0	15.4%	6.4%	9.0%	4.3%	3.90	4.98	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	85	353	74	19	11	88%	5.0	21.0%	5.4%	15.6%	3.1%	3.90	3.71	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	49	209	39	12	1	90%	4.9	12.5%	7.5%	5.0%	0.5%	4.22	3.26	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	49	209	39	12	1	90%	4.9	18.7%	5.7%	12.9%	0.5%	4.22	2.51	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	93	373	79	12	16	100%	5.5	17.1%	3.3%	13.8%	4.6%	3.47	4.62	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	93	373	79	12	16	100%	5.5	17.1%	3.3%	13.8%	4.6%	3.47	4.62	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	93	373	79	12	16	100%	5.5	21.2%	3.2%	18.0%	4.3%	3.47	4.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	PHI	1	1	5	21	4	1	1	100%	5.0	18.6%	4.5%	14.1%	3.3%	4.30	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	59	249	47	13	9	100%	5.9	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	3.5%	4.41	4.48	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	55	232	43	14	9	100%	6.1	18.7%	5.9%	12.7%	3.7%	4.56	4.67	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	18	76	14	4	3	100%	6.0	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	3.5%	4.41	4.48	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	28	118	22	7	4	100%	5.6	18.7%	5.9%	12.7%	3.7%	4.56	4.67	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	47	197	37	11	7	100%	5.8	18.7%	5.7%	13.0%	3.6%	4.50	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	47	30	100%	6.0	18.7%	5.7%	13.0%	3.6%	4.50	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		66	62	346	1402	224	83	43	94%	5.2	16.0%	5.9%	10.1%	3.1%	3.14	4.20	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	810	130	48	25	94%	5.2	16.0%	5.9%	10.1%	3.1%	3.14	4.20	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lachlan Wells (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	18.6%	4.5%	3.3%	—	4.57	18.7%	13.1%	114	+0.27	—	—	—
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	79
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	75
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	72
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	71
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	69
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	67
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	67
Nick Greenwood L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	28	SP-	3.71	11.2%	2.9%	2.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	241	66
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	65
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	65
Alejandro Astorga L 2016 · 3.72 FIP	29	SP	3.72	15.0%	9.1%	1.4%	.290	4.01	14.4%	6.2%	116	+0.29	3.72	311	64
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	64
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	63
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	63
Scott Diamond L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP	3.77	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.46	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.31	3.46	316	63
John Gast L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP	3.96	14.1%	7.9%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	122	63
David Hurlbut L 2018 · 4.84 FIP	28	SP	4.84	13.9%	6.5%	3.8%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	478	63
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	62
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	62
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	18.7%	5.2%	1.35	4.42
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38