Lachlan Wells
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%21.2%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Twins | 10 | 9 | 47 | 185 | 49 | 11 | 4 | 90% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 2.09 | 4.18 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Twins | 10 | 9 | 47 | 185 | 49 | 11 | 4 | 90% | 4.7 | 26.5% | 5.9% | 20.5% | 2.2% | 2.09 | 2.83 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 12 | 12 | 71 | 282 | 63 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.5% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 1.3% | 1.77 | 3.24 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 12 | 12 | 71 | 282 | 63 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 1.77 | 2.74 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 85 | 353 | 74 | 19 | 11 | 88% | 5.0 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 3.90 | 5.13 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 85 | 353 | 74 | 19 | 11 | 88% | 5.0 | 21.0% | 5.4% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 3.90 | 3.71 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 49 | 209 | 39 | 12 | 1 | 90% | 4.9 | 12.5% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 0.4% | 4.22 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 49 | 209 | 39 | 12 | 1 | 90% | 4.9 | 18.7% | 5.7% | 12.9% | 0.5% | 4.22 | 2.51 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 93 | 373 | 79 | 12 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 3.47 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 93 | 373 | 79 | 12 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.2% | 3.2% | 18.0% | 4.3% | 3.47 | 4.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 63 | 265 | 56 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 8 | 47 | 197 | 41 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 176 | 64 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 62 | 346 | 1402 | 224 | 83 | 42 | 94% | 5.2 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 3.14 | 4.13 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 36 | 200 | 810 | 130 | 48 | 24 | 94% | 5.2 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 3.14 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lachlan Wells (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.61 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 114 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 85 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 84 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 74 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 74 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 71 |
| Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 70 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 185 | 69 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 372 | 69 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.89 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.25 | 3.89 | 154 | 69 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 69 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.00 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.09 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | +0.09 | 3.82 | 426 | 68 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .290 | 4.17 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.78 | 311 | 68 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.18 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 328 | 68 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.68 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.11 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.43 | 3.68 | 146 | 68 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.25 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.45 | 25.7% | 16.5% | 425 | +1.20 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 67 |
| John Lamb L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 66 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.78 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.31 | 3.42 | 383 | 66 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 65 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 65 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.14 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .297 | 4.77 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.37 | 3.72 | 333 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 1.31 | 4.46 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |