Brock Selvidge — OGILVIE

Brock Selvidge P Somerset Patriots

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%16.5%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%3.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—45

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	3	2	4	14	4	1	0	67%	1.2	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.59	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	3	2	4	14	4	1	0	67%	1.2	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.74	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	9	43	181	53	17	2	82%	3.9	19.9%	11.7%	8.2%	1.5%	2.95	3.70	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	9	43	181	53	17	2	82%	3.9	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	1.1%	2.95	2.42	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	128	537	137	35	5	96%	5.3	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	1.1%	3.45	3.07	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	128	537	137	35	5	96%	5.3	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	1.1%	3.45	3.07	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	128	537	137	35	5	96%	5.3	25.5%	6.5%	19.0%	0.9%	3.45	2.29	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	85	370	83	40	6	100%	5.3	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	1.9%	4.25	4.11	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	85	370	83	40	6	100%	5.3	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	1.9%	4.25	4.11	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	16	16	85	370	83	40	6	100%	5.3	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	1.6%	4.25	3.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	83	360	68	44	6	95%	4.4	15.3%	12.9%	2.4%	2.2%	4.68	4.64	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	83	360	68	44	6	95%	4.4	15.3%	12.9%	2.4%	2.2%	4.68	4.64	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	83	360	68	44	6	95%	4.4	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	1.7%	4.68	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	NYY	1	1	5	21	3	3	1	100%	5.0	16.5%	13.5%	3.0%	2.6%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	78	330	59	41	9	100%	5.6	18.0%	12.6%	5.4%	2.6%	5.03	4.97	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	79	334	63	40	9	100%	5.6	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	2.6%	4.90	4.84	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	79	334	64	40	9	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.8%	7.4%	2.6%	4.83	4.79	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	329	64	39	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.8%	7.5%	2.7%	4.82	4.82	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	76	319	61	38	9	100%	5.8	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	2.8%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	72	305	58	37	9	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	2.9%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	287	53	36	9	100%	6.2	18.6%	12.5%	6.1%	3.1%	5.12	5.21	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	34	144	26	18	4	100%	5.7	18.0%	12.6%	5.4%	2.8%	5.13	5.07	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	42	27	6	100%	5.9	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	2.8%	5.00	4.94	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	63	266	51	31	7	100%	6.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.4%	2.8%	4.93	4.89	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	67	283	55	34	8	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.8%	7.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.92	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	67	283	54	34	8	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	3.0%	4.97	5.01	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	66	279	53	34	9	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.08	5.15	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	63	266	50	33	9	100%	6.3	18.6%	12.5%	6.1%	3.3%	5.24	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	412	1741	330	211	52	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.0%	5.03	4.66	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	160	102	25	100%	5.9	19.0%	12.1%	6.9%	3.0%	5.03	4.66	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		73	68	341	1462	265	154	24	93%	4.7	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	1.6%	3.88	3.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	857	155	90	14	93%	4.7	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	1.6%	3.88	3.78	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brock Selvidge (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	16.5%	13.5%	2.6%	—	4.87	18.7%	6.6%	236	-0.34	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	88
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	85
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	84
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	84
Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP	5.33	13.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.345	4.28	18.5%	9.1%	268	-1.05	3.34	634	82
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	82
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	81
Gabriel Castellanos L 2016 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP	4.49	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	.348	3.41	15.3%	2.7%	26	-1.08	3.41	108	80
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	80
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	80
Mason Green L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP	4.22	16.2%	12.2%	1.7%	.329	4.63	19.0%	5.1%	252	+0.41	3.68	448	80
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	79
Eddie Campbell L 2015 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	13.5%	10.7%	3.2%	.315	6.31	13.7%	-3.8%	140	+1.26	5.05	250	79
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	77
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	77
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	77
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	74	18.7%	12.3%	1.06	4.96
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41