Brock Selvidge — OGILVIE

Brock Selvidge P Somerset Patriots

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.0%

IP83

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Yankees	3	2	4	14	4	1	0	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	11	9	43	181	53	17	2	19.9%	11.7%	1.4%	2.95	3.66	+0.6
2023	20	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	23	128	537	137	35	5	19.1%	7.6%	1.1%	3.45	3.08	+3.2
2024	21	AA	Somerset Patriots	16	16	85	370	83	40	6	18.2%	11.9%	1.9%	4.25	4.12	+1.0
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	19	18	83	360	68	44	6	15.3%	12.9%	2.2%	4.68	4.65	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	NYY	15	15	83	351	67	39	9	19.1%	11.1%	2.6%	4.69	4.69	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	NYY	18	18	101	428	87	43	11	20.2%	10.1%	2.6%	4.54	4.48	+0.9
2028	25	MLB	NYY	21	21	115	484	101	46	13	20.9%	9.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.36	+1.2
2029	26	MLB	NYY	22	22	122	513	108	48	14	21.1%	9.4%	2.6%	4.37	4.33	+1.3
2030	27	MLB	NYY	23	23	125	527	112	49	14	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.34	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	NYY	23	23	125	527	111	50	14	21.1%	9.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.37	+1.3
2032	29	MLB	NYY	22	22	122	515	108	49	14	21.0%	9.5%	2.7%	4.39	4.41	+1.2
2033	30	MLB	NYY	22	22	118	499	104	48	14	20.8%	9.6%	2.8%	4.44	4.47	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	NYY	21	21	114	482	99	47	14	20.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.55	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	NYY	20	20	110	463	94	46	14	20.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.63	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	NYY	19	19	105	442	88	45	13	20.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.73	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	NYY	18	18	100	420	82	43	13	19.6%	10.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.84	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	NYY	17	17	94	396	76	42	13	19.2%	10.5%	3.2%	4.89	4.96	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	NYY	16	16	88	370	70	40	12	18.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.01	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			73	68	341	1462	265	154	24	18.1%	10.5%	1.6%	3.88	3.79	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—			43	40	200	857	155	90	14	18.1%	10.5%	1.6%	3.88	3.79	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brock Selvidge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	19.1%	11.1%	2.6%	—	4.39	20.8%	11.1%	338	-0.30	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.5%	.313	4.46	17.7%	2.8%	117	-0.05	4.21	212	93
Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.18	16.0%	4.2%	319	-0.22	3.35	414	91
Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP-	5.14	18.5%	12.7%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	5.14	101	91
Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP-	4.06	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.73	20.9%	7.7%	116	-0.33	2.85	221	89
Damon Jones L 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.83	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.29	3.69	269	88
Bryan Radziewski L 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	87
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP-	5.08	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.08	104	87
Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	15.2%	12.0%	3.1%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.04	105	87
Mason Green L 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	16.2%	12.2%	1.7%	.329	4.64	19.0%	5.1%	252	+0.44	3.72	364	86
Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.301	3.20	24.3%	17.7%	12	-1.10	3.20	117	86
Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP-	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.17	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.69	4.10	256	86
Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP-	5.21	18.7%	12.6%	3.8%	.299	5.17	20.3%	1.7%	53	-0.04	3.45	325	86
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	21.0%	10.7%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	197	86
Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	20.6%	10.9%	3.0%	.269	8.07	11.6%	1.8%	13	+3.67	4.40	233	85
Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.85	24.0%	10.3%	102	-0.55	3.85	191	84
Cameron Bishop L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.45	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.22	2.86	305	84
Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.06	4.73	154	84
Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP-	5.11	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.60	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.49	5.11	165	84
Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP	24	SP-	4.62	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.28	21.0%	9.5%	219	-0.34	2.32	304	84
Luis Ysla L 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	19.6%	12.5%	3.3%	.412	4.48	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.36	3.78	378	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.1	$11M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
Totals		$10M		$68M	+$59M