Julio Mendez — OGILVIE

Julio Mendez P Jupiter Hammerheads

+0.3 WAR

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.5 · 2030

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.7%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.8%

IP92

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.5peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	9	9	25	103	36	13	1	23.8%	15.8%	1.3%	2.13	3.81	+0.3
2023	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	4	2	7	40	10	5	1	—	—	—	11.57	—	—
2024	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	14.0%	13.7%	3.4%	3.74	5.52	-0.4
2025	20	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	17.9%	12.9%	1.6%	3.83	4.10	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	2	2	9	40	12	2	0	—	—	—	2.00	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	17	17	92	387	80	42	11	20.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.64	4.64	+0.6
2026 Total	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	101	427	92	44	11	21.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.40	4.23	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIA	22	22	118	499	109	49	14	21.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+1.2
2028	23	MLB	MIA	26	26	143	603	136	55	16	22.5%	9.1%	2.7%	4.33	4.23	+1.7
2029	24	MLB	MIA	30	30	162	685	158	60	19	23.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.13	+2.2
2030	25	MLB	MIA	32	32	176	744	174	64	20	23.4%	8.6%	2.7%	4.13	4.07	+2.5
2031	26	MLB	MIA	32	32	176	744	175	63	20	23.6%	8.5%	2.7%	4.08	4.05	+2.5
2032	27	MLB	MIA	32	32	175	739	174	63	20	23.6%	8.5%	2.7%	4.07	4.06	+2.5
2033	28	MLB	MIA	31	31	172	728	171	62	20	23.5%	8.6%	2.7%	4.08	4.08	+2.4
2034	29	MLB	MIA	31	31	168	711	167	62	20	23.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.11	4.13	+2.2
2035	30	MLB	MIA	30	30	163	690	160	60	20	23.2%	8.8%	2.8%	4.16	4.19	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	MIA	29	29	158	666	153	59	19	23.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.27	+1.8
2037	32	MLB	MIA	28	28	151	639	145	58	19	22.7%	9.0%	3.0%	4.30	4.35	+1.6
2038	33	MLB	MIA	26	26	145	611	137	56	19	22.4%	9.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.45	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	MIA	25	25	137	580	128	55	18	22.0%	9.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.56	+1.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			55	42	198	869	158	114	19	18.2%	13.1%	2.1%	3.77	4.41	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			56	42	200	878	160	115	19	18.2%	13.1%	2.1%	3.77	4.41	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.7%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.24	22.5%	13.3%	423	-0.40	—	—	—
Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP-	4.63	20.2%	12.5%	3.0%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.37	2.56	718	94
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	19.3%	12.1%	3.0%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.08	4.01	212	94
Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP-	4.76	18.0%	12.8%	2.9%	.290	4.07	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.69	3.72	252	93
Luis Rico L 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	17.2%	13.0%	2.2%	.303	4.99	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.48	4.26	199	92
Connor O'Halloran L 2026 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP-	5.08	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.08	104	91
John Beller L 2027 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP-	4.60	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.38	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.22	4.21	170	91
Max Fried L 2027 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.73	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.46	1,369	89
Brett Adcock L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.61	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.55	4.02	301	89
Brandon Finnegan L 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	21.3%	12.8%	2.9%	.287	5.02	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.52	3.85	489	89
Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.56	17.8%	7.8%	150	-1.63	3.30	240	89
Riley Cooper L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	22	SP-	4.27	16.6%	12.0%	1.9%	.287	4.70	16.5%	8.0%	32	+0.43	4.27	120	89
Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.5%	.313	4.46	17.7%	2.8%	117	-0.05	4.21	212	89
Sam Garcia L 2028 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP-	5.14	18.5%	12.7%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	5.14	101	88
Joe Whitman L 2027 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP-	3.91	18.6%	9.9%	2.1%	.303	3.79	20.4%	10.8%	131	-0.12	3.78	234	88
Dylan Carmouche L 2027 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.6%	2.6%	.332	4.38	17.4%	9.6%	70	+0.01	4.37	192	88
Seth Lonsway L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.18	16.0%	4.2%	319	-0.22	3.35	414	88
Ixan Henderson L 2027 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP-	3.76	18.1%	11.1%	1.4%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.49	3.27	236	87
Drew Dowd L 2027 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP-	4.39	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.14	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.25	3.14	166	87
Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.301	3.20	24.3%	17.7%	12	-1.10	3.20	117	87
Daniel McGrath L 2026 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	15.2%	11.9%	2.4%	.269	4.69	14.8%	2.8%	277	+0.04	3.51	474	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.5	$24M	+$23M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.4	$24M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.2	$22M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.1	$22M	+$17M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$12M		$115M	+$103M