Julio Mendez

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 22 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#343ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	9	65	3.74	4.12	19.5%	11.6%	—	K 14.0% · BB 13.7% · FIP 5.34
2025	20	AMIA	22	20	92	3.83	3.14	24.2%	10.9%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.10
2026	21	MIX2 levels	27	22	110	2.95	2.80	32.3%	11.8%	—	K 24.2% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.08	5.08	20.8%	14.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIA	7	7	40	4.80	4.71	21.7%	13.1%	0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIA	10	10	57	4.62	4.52	22.2%	12.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 6.1, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 82%

CompsJohn Beller (age 22) · Adam Tulloch (age 23) · Rylan Kaufman (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 130

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%20.8%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	9	9	25	103	36	13	1	100%	2.8	23.8%	15.8%	8.0%	1.3%	2.13	3.83	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	9	9	25	103	36	13	1	100%	2.8	35.0%	12.6%	22.3%	1.0%	2.13	2.31	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	2	7	40	10	5	1	50%	1.8	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.5%	11.57	3.94	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	2	7	40	10	5	1	50%	1.8	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.5%	11.57	4.24	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	50%	3.6	14.0%	13.7%	0.4%	3.1%	3.74	5.34	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	50%	3.6	14.0%	13.7%	0.4%	3.1%	3.74	5.34	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	50%	3.6	19.5%	11.6%	7.8%	2.0%	3.74	4.12	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	91%	4.2	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	1.6%	3.83	4.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	91%	4.2	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	1.6%	3.83	4.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	91%	4.2	24.2%	10.9%	13.2%	1.3%	3.83	3.14	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	110	468	151	55	8	81%	4.1	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.95	4.00	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	110	468	151	55	8	81%	4.1	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.95	4.00	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	110	468	151	55	8	81%	4.1	32.3%	11.8%	20.5%	1.7%	2.95	2.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	5.08	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	81	342	74	45	9	100%	5.4	21.7%	13.1%	8.6%	2.7%	4.87	4.78	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	81	342	76	41	9	100%	5.8	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.7%	4.69	4.59	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	73	308	70	35	8	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.7%	4.55	4.48	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	72	306	70	34	8	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.45	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	71	298	68	34	8	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	2.7%	4.49	4.49	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	67	284	64	32	8	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.2%	2.8%	4.54	4.57	+0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	62	263	59	31	8	100%	6.2	22.4%	11.7%	10.8%	3.0%	4.64	4.70	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	57	239	53	29	8	100%	6.3	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.88	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	51	214	46	26	7	100%	6.3	21.7%	12.3%	9.3%	3.4%	4.96	5.08	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	40	169	37	22	4	100%	5.7	21.7%	13.1%	8.6%	2.5%	4.80	4.71	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	57	241	54	29	6	100%	5.7	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	2.5%	4.62	4.52	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	59	249	56	28	6	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.5%	4.48	4.41	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	63	266	61	30	7	100%	6.3	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.38	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	64	270	62	30	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	2.6%	4.41	4.41	+0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	59	30	7	100%	6.2	22.7%	11.4%	11.2%	2.7%	4.46	4.49	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	58	245	55	29	7	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.7%	10.8%	2.8%	4.56	4.62	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	53	224	49	27	7	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.69	4.79	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	48	203	44	25	7	100%	6.0	21.7%	12.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.87	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	504	2128	476	250	58	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.7%	10.6%	2.7%	4.57	4.19	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	99	23	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.7%	10.6%	2.7%	4.57	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		80	62	299	1297	259	176	28	78%	3.7	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	2.2%	3.52	4.32	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	41	200	868	173	118	19	77%	3.7	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	2.2%	3.52	4.32	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 72 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.21 (+1.32)K% 32.9% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.740	24.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.180	13.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 38 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.64 (+1.00)K% 31.1% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.14%	—	×0.770	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.98%	—	×1.150	13.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 92 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.10 (+0.96)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.17%	—	×0.740	17.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×1.180	12.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.035	×1.300	1.60%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 63 IPFIP 4.12 → 5.34 (+1.22)K% 18.9% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.95%	—	×0.740	14.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.58%	—	×1.180	13.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.888	×1.300	3.08%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 6 IPFIP 3.68 → 5.62 (+1.94)K% 31.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.680	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.250	12.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.995	×1.400	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Marlins · 25 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.83 (+1.55)K% 35.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.95%	—	×0.680	23.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.62%	—	×1.250	15.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷1.016	×1.400	1.34%

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	20.8%	14.9%	2.7%	—	4.62	22.2%	10.0%	235	-0.46	—	—	—
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	90
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	89
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	88
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	87
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	86
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	85
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	85
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	84
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	83
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	82
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	81
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	80
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	80
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	79
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	79
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	79
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	79
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	78
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	69	22.2%	12.2%	1.09	4.71
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Ricky Bottalico ('05)	3.1	63	21.1%	11.6%	1.02	3.99
Juan Cruz ('12)	3.3	60	23.1%	12.1%	0.92	4.05
George Frazier ('78-'87, 2 WAR*)	3.4	68	21.6%*	10.5%*	0.92*	4.42*
Greg Cadaret ('87-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.6	80	22.3%*	12.1%*	0.88*	4.14*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*