Julio Mendez
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 21
LHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.2 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122132vR 141
ERA5.42
FIP5.42
K%16.2%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%2.2%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 9 | 9 | 25 | 103 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 2.8 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 2.13 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 9 | 9 | 25 | 103 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 2.8 | 35.0% | 12.6% | 22.3% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 2.31 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 50% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 11.57 | 3.94 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 50% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 11.57 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 65 | 293 | 57 | 34 | 6 | 50% | 3.6 | 14.0% | 13.7% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 5.58 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 65 | 293 | 57 | 34 | 6 | 50% | 3.6 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 22 | 20 | 92 | 393 | 95 | 43 | 5 | 91% | 4.2 | 17.9% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 3.83 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 22 | 20 | 92 | 393 | 95 | 43 | 5 | 91% | 4.2 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 1.3% | 3.83 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 17 | 14 | 72 | 301 | 99 | 35 | 6 | 82% | 4.2 | 24.3% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 2.89 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 64 | 271 | 44 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.2% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.42 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.2% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.38 | 5.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 136 | 572 | 143 | 73 | 14 | — | — | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 67 | 285 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.15 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 56 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 62 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 63 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 62 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 10 | 10 | 51 | 215 | 41 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 59 | 249 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 55 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 57 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 60 | 340 | 1435 | 286 | 158 | 38 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.26 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 93 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 54 | 261 | 1130 | 219 | 153 | 27 | 77% | 3.7 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 4.47 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 41 | 200 | 867 | 168 | 118 | 20 | 77% | 3.7 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julio Mendez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.42 | 16.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.84 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 209 | -0.58 | — | — | — |
| Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.25 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.93 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 182 | -1.32 | 3.47 | 273 | 87 |
| John Beller L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 85 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 84 |
| Matt Imhof L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.99 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .282 | 5.73 | 15.9% | -5.4% | 53 | +0.74 | 4.99 | 131 | 83 |
| Juliandry Higuera L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.37 | 12.2% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.28 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 87 | -1.09 | 4.04 | 197 | 82 |
| Armando Vasquez L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.25 | 14.7% | 14.7% | 1.0% | .318 | 5.67 | 21.2% | 3.2% | 94 | +1.42 | 4.25 | 131 | 81 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 81 |
| Gabriel Noguera L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 1.3% | .231 | 5.34 | 14.2% | 2.1% | 95 | +0.93 | 4.41 | 174 | 81 |
| Julio Robaina L 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.49 | 17.4% | 16.9% | 3.1% | .347 | 3.99 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 178 | -1.50 | 2.72 | 431 | 81 |
| Shane Drohan L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.4% | .313 | 5.13 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 264 | +0.90 | 2.91 | 484 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 11.9% | 15.1% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.29 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 97 | -1.10 | 4.11 | 158 | 80 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 80 |
| Nate Peterson L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 80 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.3% | .328 | 5.58 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.57 | 5.01 | 165 | 80 |
| Matt Tenuta L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.85 | 12.0% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.53 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 278 | -0.32 | 2.88 | 421 | 80 |
| Rolando Gutierrez L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 12.8% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 3.80 | 16.2% | -0.1% | 18 | -0.95 | 3.51 | 113 | 80 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 80 |
| Luis Rico L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.17 | 17.2% | 13.0% | 3.4% | .303 | 5.16 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 105 | -0.01 | 4.43 | 199 | 80 |
| Packy Naughton L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.45 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.57 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 311 | -0.88 | 2.97 | 504 | 79 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 70 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 1.05 | 4.86 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |