Julio Mendez — OGILVIE

Julio Mendez P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%16.2%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	9	9	25	103	36	13	1	100%	2.8	23.8%	15.8%	8.0%	1.3%	2.13	3.83	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	9	9	25	103	36	13	1	100%	2.8	35.0%	12.6%	22.3%	1.0%	2.13	2.31	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	2	7	40	10	5	1	50%	1.8	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.5%	11.57	3.94	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	2	7	40	10	5	1	50%	1.8	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.5%	11.57	3.94	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	2	7	40	10	5	1	50%	1.8	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	2.5%	11.57	4.24	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	50%	3.6	14.0%	13.7%	0.4%	3.1%	3.74	5.34	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	50%	3.6	14.0%	13.7%	0.4%	3.1%	3.74	5.34	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	9	65	293	57	34	6	50%	3.6	19.5%	11.6%	7.8%	2.0%	3.74	4.12	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	91%	4.2	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	1.6%	3.83	4.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	91%	4.2	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	1.6%	3.83	4.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	20	92	393	95	43	5	91%	4.2	24.2%	10.9%	13.2%	1.3%	3.83	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	27	22	110	468	151	55	8	81%	4.1	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.95	4.00	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	27	22	110	468	151	55	8	81%	4.1	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.95	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	MIA	17	14	72	301	99	35	6	82%	4.2	32.9%	11.6%	21.3%	2.0%	2.89	2.89	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIA	10	8	38	167	52	20	2	80%	3.8	31.1%	12.0%	19.2%	1.2%	3.05	2.64	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	5	23	4	3	1	100%	5.4	16.2%	14.4%	1.7%	2.8%	5.46	5.46	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	115	491	155	58	9	—	—	31.5%	11.9%	19.6%	1.8%	3.06	4.07	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	113	478	85	61	13	100%	5.1	17.9%	12.7%	5.2%	2.7%	5.18	5.07	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	117	495	94	57	13	100%	5.3	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.7%	4.95	4.83	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	120	508	100	55	14	100%	5.7	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	2.7%	4.78	4.68	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	122	514	103	54	14	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.6%	9.5%	2.7%	4.67	4.60	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	514	104	54	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.7%	4.61	4.57	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	120	506	102	54	14	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	2.7%	4.61	4.61	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	491	99	53	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.70	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	111	469	93	52	14	100%	5.8	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	104	441	86	50	14	100%	6.1	19.5%	11.3%	8.2%	3.2%	4.91	5.01	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	56	236	42	30	6	100%	5.1	17.9%	12.7%	5.2%	2.6%	5.11	5.00	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	85	359	68	42	9	100%	5.3	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.6%	4.88	4.76	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	100	422	83	46	11	100%	5.6	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.71	4.61	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	107	452	91	48	12	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.6%	9.5%	2.5%	4.60	4.53	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	111	469	95	49	12	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.5%	4.54	4.50	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	111	469	95	50	12	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.54	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	109	460	93	49	12	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.58	4.62	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	106	448	89	49	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.75	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	99	418	82	47	13	100%	6.2	19.5%	11.3%	8.2%	3.0%	4.82	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		152	152	884	3733	736	410	99	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.29	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	93	22	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		80	62	299	1297	259	176	28	78%	3.7	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	2.2%	3.52	4.32	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	41	200	868	173	118	19	77%	3.7	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	2.2%	3.52	4.32	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	16.2%	14.4%	2.8%	—	4.86	18.8%	7.1%	351	-0.60	—	—	—
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	87
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	85
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	84
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	83
Matt Imhof L 2015 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP	5.13	13.6%	13.5%	2.7%	.282	5.68	15.9%	-5.4%	53	+0.55	5.13	131	83
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	83
Juliandry Higuera L 2016 · 5.33 FIP	21	SP	5.33	12.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.297	4.25	16.9%	5.2%	87	-1.08	3.87	197	81
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	451	81
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	81
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	81
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	80
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	79
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	79
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	79
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	79
Matt Tenuta L 2015 · 4.96 FIP	21	SP	4.96	12.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.294	4.47	15.2%	6.4%	278	-0.49	2.85	421	79
Jared Miller L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	21	SP	5.28	11.2%	13.2%	2.7%	.320	3.69	25.3%	10.2%	168	-1.59	2.42	228	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	111	19.4%	11.3%	1.08	4.83
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88