Sam Hentges

P San Francisco Giants

Age 31 LHP 6'8" / 255 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX3 levels	61	0	57	3.47	2.50	24.6%	8.2%	1.4	K 25.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 2.50
2024	28	MIX3 levels	35	3	33	3.27	3.07	26.7%	7.6%	0.6	K 29.7% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.10
2026	30	MIX3 levels	56	5	47	2.87	2.78	23.8%	13.6%	1.0	K 23.7% · BB 13.3% · FIP 2.78
2027PROJ	31	MLBSF	36	0	38	3.93	4.03	25.0%	12.2%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBSF	27	0	28	4.14	4.29	24.2%	12.6%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBSF	18	0	19	4.40	4.57	23.4%	13.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs61

K%58

FB Velo50

Form3.77 ERA (proj 3.93) · K 22.9% (proj 25.0%) · BB 10.0% (proj 12.2%) · last 90d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Edward Paredes (age 31) · George Sherrill (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 106

ERA3.93

FIP4.03

K%25.0%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p5823.7%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	11	9	49	217	59	19	4	82%	4.5	18.5%	10.9%	7.5%	2.6%	3.10	4.34	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	11	9	49	217	59	19	4	82%	4.5	27.2%	8.8%	18.4%	1.8%	3.10	2.92	—
2016	20	A MLE	Lake County Captains	14	14	60	284	73	29	8	100%	4.3	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	2.9%	6.12	4.60	—
2016	20	A RAW	Lake County Captains	14	14	60	284	73	29	8	100%	4.3	25.7%	10.2%	15.5%	2.8%	6.12	3.85	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	6	6	13	58	18	3	2	100%	2.2	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	4.8%	4.85	4.79	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	6	6	13	58	18	3	2	100%	2.2	31.0%	5.2%	25.9%	3.4%	4.85	3.02	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	118	505	122	52	4	100%	5.1	18.6%	11.8%	6.8%	1.0%	3.27	3.59	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	118	505	122	52	4	100%	5.1	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	0.8%	3.27	2.80	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	26	26	129	588	126	64	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	2.6%	5.11	4.58	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	26	26	129	588	126	64	11	100%	4.9	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	1.9%	5.11	3.75	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	12	73	335	74	34	10	36%	2.2	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.2%	6.66	4.30	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	12	73	335	74	34	10	36%	2.2	22.1%	10.1%	11.9%	3.0%	6.66	4.25	+0.3
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	57	0	62	245	72	18	3	0%	1.1	29.4%	7.3%	22.0%	1.2%	2.32	2.22	+1.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	57	0	62	245	72	18	3	0%	1.1	29.4%	7.3%	22.0%	1.2%	2.32	2.28	+1.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	61	0	57	244	60	20	2	0%	0.9	25.1%	8.1%	17.0%	0.9%	3.47	2.50	+1.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	61	0	57	244	60	20	2	0%	0.9	24.6%	8.2%	16.4%	0.8%	3.47	2.50	+1.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	3	33	131	35	10	3	9%	0.9	29.7%	5.5%	24.2%	3.3%	3.27	3.10	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	3	33	131	35	10	3	9%	0.9	29.7%	5.5%	24.2%	3.3%	3.27	3.10	+0.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	3	33	131	35	10	3	9%	0.9	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	2.3%	3.27	3.07	+0.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	5	47	214	51	29	0	9%	0.8	23.7%	13.3%	10.4%	0.0%	2.87	2.78	+1.0
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	5	47	214	51	29	0	9%	0.8	23.7%	13.3%	10.4%	0.0%	2.87	2.78	+1.0
2026	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	5	47	214	51	29	0	9%	0.8	23.8%	13.6%	10.3%	0.0%	2.87	2.78	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	12	243	1050	264	96	18	6%	1.1	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	1.7%	4.03	3.08	+4.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SF	36	0	38	160	40	20	3	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.2%	12.8%	2.0%	3.93	4.03	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SF	28	0	29	124	30	16	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.6%	11.6%	2.3%	4.14	4.29	+0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	85	20	11	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	2.6%	4.40	4.57	-0.0
2030	34	MLB MLE	SF	12	0	13	54	12	7	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.68	4.87	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	SF	27	0	28	118	29	15	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.6%	11.6%	2.3%	4.14	4.29	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	SF	18	0	19	80	19	10	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	2.6%	4.40	4.57	-0.0
2030	34	MLB CTX	SF	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.68	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		269	12	302	1297	322	128	24	4%	1.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	1.9%	4.09	3.27	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	8	200	859	213	85	16	4%	1.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	1.9%	4.09	3.27	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		322	98	642	2821	597	299	57	30%	2.0	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.0%	4.21	3.77	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	31	200	879	186	93	18	30%	2.0	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.0%	4.21	3.77	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 9 IPFIP 2.88 → 2.99 (+0.11)K% 26.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.860	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×0.900	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 8 IPFIP 3.21 → 3.27 (+0.05)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.860	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×0.900	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.060	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.21 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAkron RubberDucks · 129 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.58 (+0.88)K% 21.4% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.810	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×1.100	11.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷0.863	×1.200	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 118 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.59 (+0.79)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.16%	—	×0.770	18.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.30%	—	×1.150	11.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Indians · 13 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.79 (+1.76)K% 31.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.680	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.17%	—	×1.250	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.83%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ALake County Captains · 60 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.60 (+0.83)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.70%	—	×0.740	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.21%	—	×1.180	12.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.274	×1.300	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKAZL Indians · 49 IPFIP 2.92 → 4.34 (+1.42)K% 27.2% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.19%	—	×0.680	18.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.76%	—	×1.250	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.58%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Hentges (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	25.0%	12.2%	2.0%	—	4.50	23.6%	10.6%	62	+0.47	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	76
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	73
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	71
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	71
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	70
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	69
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	68
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	67
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	66
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	66
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.27	592	66
Zach Phillips L 2017 · 2.85 FIP	30	SU	2.85	19.2%	8.6%	0.5%	.301	3.67	19.1%	10.6%	36	+0.82	2.33	202	66
Scott Rice L 2013 · 3.10 FIP	31	SU	3.10	19.2%	10.8%	0.5%	.277	3.85	22.1%	5.0%	53	+0.75	3.10	104	66
Mike Myers L 2000 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	23.2%	11.9%	1.1%	.195	3.81	17.3%	6.8%	113	+0.54	3.22	533	66
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	65
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	65
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	65
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	65
Kelly Wunsch L 2003 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	20.6%	13.1%	0.6%	.152	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	24	+0.46	3.36	175	65
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	38	24.9%	10.4%	0.73	4.08
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.5	50	24.0%	10.2%	0.92	3.81
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
Marc Rzepczynski ('18)	2.2	48	21.6%	10.8%	0.75	3.89
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*