Robinson Ortiz
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
LHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.7%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
OFP—45
STUF5050
CTRL—50
CMD3040
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 151 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 15.8% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 3.13 | 2.29 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 11 | 9 | 32 | 136 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 19 | 18 | 86 | 365 | 74 | 40 | 10 | 15.0% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 4 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 17.1% | 27.7% | 0.0% | 0.77 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 6 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.82 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 48 | 1 | 59 | 254 | 72 | 32 | 4 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 2.73 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 24 | — | 24 | 100 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 23.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 28 | 121 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 23.3% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 58 | 29 | 7 | 23.3% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 53 | 27 | 7 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 48 | 26 | 7 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 21.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 39 | 23 | 6 | 21.4% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 20.9% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 41 | 242 | 1028 | 183 | 128 | 21 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 4.27 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 34 | 200 | 850 | 151 | 106 | 17 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robinson Ortiz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 23.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.52 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 174 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 87 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 86 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 85 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 84 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 82 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 82 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 82 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 81 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 81 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 81 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 80 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 80 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 80 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Edward Paredes L 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 80 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 79 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 79 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.