Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 35 | 160 | 47 | 34 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 26.6% | -6.0% | 0.0% | 3.57 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 35 | 160 | 47 | 34 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 21.2% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 3.57 | 3.33 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 0 | 54 | 231 | 66 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 17.0% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 2.65 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 0 | 54 | 231 | 66 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 13.9% | 14.7% | 0.9% | 2.65 | 2.92 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 63 | 269 | 82 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 0.9% | 1.99 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 63 | 269 | 82 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.5% | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.7% | 1.99 | 2.63 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 66 | 300 | 77 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.56 | 4.87 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 66 | 300 | 77 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.7% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 5.56 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 42 | 1 | 66 | 274 | 76 | 31 | 2 | 2% | 1.6 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 0.8% | 2.31 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 42 | 1 | 66 | 274 | 76 | 31 | 2 | 2% | 1.6 | 27.7% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 0.7% | 2.31 | 2.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 30 | 2 | 35 | 143 | 37 | 19 | 1 | 7% | 1.2 | 22.8% | 14.0% | 8.8% | 0.8% | 1.04 | 3.37 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BAL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 65 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 104 | 436 | 102 | 56 | 9 | — | — | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 4.21 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 7 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 22.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 58 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 53 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 105 | 443 | 97 | 57 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.51 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 109 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 240 | 3 | 320 | 1377 | 313 | 211 | 19 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 7.4% | 1.4% | 2.98 | 3.89 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 2 | 200 | 860 | 196 | 132 | 12 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 7.4% | 1.4% | 2.98 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Magno (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 22.3% | 12.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.88 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 186 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 88 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 86 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 85 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 83 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 81 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 80 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 80 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 79 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 78 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 78 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 77 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 76 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 1.11 | 4.74 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |