Mitch Bratt

P Reno Aces

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	21	110	3.75	2.92	26.1%	6.2%	—	K 20.4% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.72
2025	22	AAARI	24	23	122	3.38	3.11	29.3%	4.2%	—	K 23.7% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.44
2026	23	MIX2 levels	26	26	107	3.95	4.10	20.0%	10.7%	1.6	K 18.2% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	7	7	37	4.09	4.45	16.7%	6.2%	0.4
2028PROJ85% MLB	25	MLBARI	9	9	53	4.12	4.22	18.1%	6.1%	0.7
2029PROJ89% MLB	26	MLBARI	10	10	61	4.14	4.17	18.9%	6.2%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.256First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs50

FB Velo10

K%10

Form3.81 ERA (proj 4.09) · K 17.1% (proj 16.7%) · BB 13.7% (proj 6.2%) ▼▼ last 90d · 28 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.3 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 70%

CompsMarc Rzepczynski (age 24) · Jake Bennett (age 22) · Kyle Twomey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.09

FIP4.45

K%16.7%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.0

Whiff%

p1014.9%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	4	0	6	24	13	0	0	0%	1.5	54.2%	0.0%	54.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.47	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	4	0	6	24	13	0	0	0%	1.5	54.2%	0.0%	54.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.23	—
2022	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	19	18	81	336	99	28	4	95%	4.2	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	1.7%	2.45	3.44	—
2022	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	19	18	81	336	99	28	4	95%	4.2	29.5%	8.3%	21.1%	1.2%	2.45	2.33	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	3.0%	3.54	3.89	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	27.7%	6.4%	21.2%	2.3%	3.54	2.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	2.6%	3.75	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	2.6%	3.75	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	26.1%	6.2%	19.8%	2.2%	3.75	2.92	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	23.7%	4.6%	19.2%	3.2%	3.38	3.44	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	23.7%	4.6%	19.2%	3.2%	3.38	3.44	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	29.3%	4.2%	25.1%	3.6%	3.38	3.11	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	107	449	90	48	11	100%	4.1	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.6%	3.95	4.31	+1.4
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	107	449	90	48	11	100%	4.1	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.6%	3.95	4.31	+1.4
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	107	449	90	48	11	100%	4.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.4%	2.4%	3.95	4.10	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	10	44	194	30	26	5	100%	4.4	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	2.6%	4.70	4.99	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	7	7	37	156	26	10	5	100%	5.3	16.7%	6.2%	10.5%	2.9%	4.09	4.45	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	62	263	48	16	8	100%	5.7	18.1%	6.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.21	4.31	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	69	290	55	18	8	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.23	4.26	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	68	288	55	18	8	100%	6.2	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.27	4.29	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	65	273	52	18	8	100%	5.9	19.0%	6.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.33	4.38	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	55	231	43	16	7	100%	6.1	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.2%	4.45	4.54	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	7	7	43	183	32	13	6	100%	6.2	17.7%	7.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.74	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	5	5	32	136	23	10	5	100%	6.4	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	3.6%	4.84	4.98	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	4	4	22	93	15	7	4	100%	5.5	16.1%	7.8%	8.4%	3.9%	5.07	5.23	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	53	224	40	14	6	100%	5.9	18.1%	6.1%	12.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.22	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	49	16	7	100%	6.1	18.9%	6.2%	12.7%	2.7%	4.14	4.17	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	62	262	50	16	7	100%	6.2	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	2.8%	4.18	4.20	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	60	253	48	16	7	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.24	4.29	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	51	215	40	14	7	100%	6.4	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.35	4.44	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	41	173	31	12	6	100%	5.9	17.7%	7.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.64	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	30	127	21	9	4	100%	6.0	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.87	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	21	89	14	7	3	100%	5.2	16.1%	7.8%	8.4%	3.7%	4.95	5.11	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	424	1798	324	131	53	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.11	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	848	153	62	25	100%	5.8	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		113	104	487	2027	435	153	54	92%	4.3	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	2.6%	3.42	3.69	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	832	179	63	22	92%	4.3	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	2.6%	3.42	3.69	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 63 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.80 (+0.30)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.860	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.63%	—	×0.900	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 122 IPFIP 3.11 → 3.44 (+0.33)K% 29.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.31%	—	×0.810	23.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.16%	—	×1.100	4.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.56%	÷1.333	×1.200	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 3.11 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 77 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.41 (+0.89)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.770	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.30%	—	×1.150	6.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.014	×1.250	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 33 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.36 (+0.63)K% 22.4% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.45%	—	×0.810	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.100	8.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.080	×1.200	3.02%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 61 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.89 (+1.06)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.65%	—	×0.770	21.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.44%	—	×1.150	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.948	×1.250	3.00%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 81 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.44 (+1.11)K% 29.5% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.46%	—	×0.740	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.912	×1.300	1.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rangers · 6 IPFIP -1.47 → -0.01 (+1.46)K% 54.2% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.17%	—	×0.680	36.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.015	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP -1.47 → -0.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Bratt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.29	18.7%	12.5%	199	-0.16	—	—	—
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	79
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	79
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	76
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	76
Chris Rusin L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	15.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.343	4.42	13.3%	6.8%	245	-0.09	2.89	596	75
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	75
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	75
Mike Bacsik L 2002 · 4.67 FIP	24	SP-	4.67	12.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.285	5.35	11.9%	6.2%	33	+0.68	4.24	207	74
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	74
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	74
Brett Oberholtzer L 2013 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	15.4%	4.4%	2.5%	.259	4.22	15.7%	9.6%	322	+0.51	3.48	658	74
Clayton Richard L 2008 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	13.5%	5.1%	2.3%	.329	4.01	16.4%	7.2%	454	+0.12	3.56	1,348	74
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	74
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	73
Travis Wood L 2011 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	16.4%	7.6%	2.0%	.316	4.23	18.1%	9.7%	530	+0.46	3.21	994	73
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	73
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	72
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	72
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	72
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	51	17.9%	7.2%	1.18	4.41
Dan Wheeler ('12)	3.2	58	20.7%	7.2%	1.25	3.98
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Jon Rauch ('13)	3.0	60	19.0%	7.2%	1.06	3.90
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*