Mitch Bratt — OGILVIE

Mitch Bratt P Reno Aces

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7483vR 93

ERA3.17

FIP3.17

K%22.2%

BB%3.3%

K-BB%18.9%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—70

CMD5570

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.2	$8M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$43M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	4	0	6	24	13	0	0	0%	1.5	54.2%	0.0%	54.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.47	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	4	0	6	24	13	0	0	0%	1.5	54.2%	0.0%	54.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.23	—
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	19	18	81	336	99	28	4	95%	4.2	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	1.9%	2.45	3.54	—
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	19	18	81	336	99	28	4	95%	4.2	29.5%	8.3%	21.1%	1.2%	2.45	2.33	—
2023	20	A+	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	3.2%	3.54	3.98	—
2023	20	A+	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	27.7%	6.4%	21.2%	2.3%	3.54	2.82	—
2024	21	MIX	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	2.5%	3.75	3.67	—
2024	21	MIX	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	26.1%	6.2%	19.8%	2.2%	3.75	2.92	—
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	23.7%	4.6%	19.2%	2.6%	3.38	3.08	—
2025	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	29.3%	4.2%	25.1%	3.6%	3.38	3.11	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	15	15	58	230	54	19	5	100%	3.9	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	2.2%	2.78	3.34	+0.8
ROS	23	MLB	ARI	12	12	65	274	61	9	8	100%	5.4	22.2%	3.3%	18.9%	2.8%	3.17	3.17	+1.1
ROS	23	MLB	ARI	12	12	65	274	61	9	8	100%	5.4	22.2%	3.3%	18.9%	2.8%	3.20	3.20	+1.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB	ARI	—	—	123	504	115	28	13	—	—	22.8%	5.6%	17.2%	2.5%	2.98	3.25	+3.1
2026 FULL	23	MLB	ARI	—	—	71	299	115	28	13	—	—	38.4%	9.4%	29.0%	4.3%	5.22	3.39	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	ARI	16	16	88	370	81	16	10	100%	5.5	21.8%	4.2%	17.6%	2.8%	3.76	3.73	+1.4
2028	25	MLB	ARI	15	15	89	375	83	16	11	100%	5.9	22.2%	4.4%	17.9%	2.8%	3.74	3.71	+1.5
2029	26	MLB	ARI	15	15	89	375	84	17	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	4.5%	17.9%	2.8%	3.73	3.71	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	ARI	15	15	88	369	83	17	11	100%	5.8	22.4%	4.7%	17.8%	2.9%	3.76	3.77	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	ARI	14	14	85	358	80	17	11	100%	6.1	22.3%	4.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.81	3.85	+1.2
2032	29	MLB	ARI	14	14	81	342	75	17	11	100%	5.8	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%	3.1%	3.91	3.98	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	ARI	13	13	76	322	76	15	11	100%	5.9	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	3.3%	3.90	3.89	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	ARI	12	12	71	300	70	15	11	100%	5.9	23.3%	4.9%	18.4%	3.6%	4.01	4.09	+0.6
2035	32	MLB	ARI	11	11	66	278	63	15	11	100%	6.0	22.8%	5.3%	17.6%	3.8%	4.19	4.32	+0.3
2036	33	MLB	ARI	10	10	60	255	57	15	10	100%	6.0	22.3%	5.7%	16.6%	4.1%	4.42	4.57	-0.0
2037	34	MLB	ARI	9	9	55	232	51	14	10	100%	6.1	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	4.4%	4.67	4.84	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	ARI	8	8	49	209	44	14	10	100%	6.2	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	4.7%	4.96	5.15	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	ARI	15	15	83	350	77	15	10	100%	5.5	21.8%	4.2%	17.6%	2.9%	3.79	3.76	+1.2
2028	25	MLB	ARI	14	14	84	355	79	15	10	100%	6.0	22.2%	4.4%	17.9%	2.9%	3.77	3.74	+1.3
2029	26	MLB	ARI	14	14	84	355	80	16	10	100%	6.0	22.4%	4.5%	17.9%	2.9%	3.77	3.75	+1.3
2030	27	MLB	ARI	14	14	83	350	78	16	10	100%	5.9	22.4%	4.7%	17.8%	3.0%	3.80	3.81	+1.2
2031	28	MLB	ARI	14	14	81	342	76	16	10	100%	5.8	22.3%	4.8%	17.5%	3.1%	3.85	3.89	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	ARI	13	13	77	325	72	16	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%	3.2%	3.95	4.02	+0.8
2033	30	MLB	ARI	12	12	72	304	72	14	10	100%	6.0	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	3.4%	3.94	3.93	+0.7
2034	31	MLB	ARI	11	11	68	287	67	14	10	100%	6.2	23.3%	4.9%	18.4%	3.6%	4.05	4.13	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	ARI	10	10	63	266	61	14	10	100%	6.3	22.8%	5.3%	17.6%	3.9%	4.24	4.37	+0.2
2036	33	MLB	ARI	10	10	57	241	54	14	10	100%	5.7	22.3%	5.7%	16.6%	4.2%	4.47	4.62	-0.0
2037	34	MLB	ARI	8	8	50	211	46	13	9	100%	6.2	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	4.5%	4.72	4.89	-0.2
2038	35	MLB	ARI	7	7	42	177	38	12	9	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	4.8%	5.02	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			160	160	916	3869	863	190	130	100%	5.7	22.3%	4.9%	17.4%	3.4%	3.99	3.69	+18.3
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	845	188	41	28	100%	5.7	22.3%	4.9%	17.4%	3.4%	3.99	3.69	+4.0
Career	—			102	93	439	1808	405	124	44	91%	4.3	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	2.4%	3.20	3.42	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—			47	42	200	824	185	57	20	91%	4.3	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	2.4%	3.20	3.42	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Bratt (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.53	22.2%	3.0%	2.8%	—	3.72	22.2%	17.8%	265	+0.19	—	—	—
Zach Thornton L 2026 · 2.95 FIP	23	SP	2.95	22.7%	4.5%	2.2%	.239	4.22	20.9%	10.8%	80	+1.27	2.95	221	80
Seth Varner L 2026 · 2.84 FIP	23	SP	2.84	18.1%	2.1%	1.8%	.314	4.66	14.7%	9.0%	292	+1.82	2.84	431	75
Brant Hurter L 2026 · 2.84 FIP	23	SP-	2.84	23.7%	5.5%	1.9%	.337	3.53	21.6%	14.5%	298	+0.69	2.84	430	75
Antonio Velez L 2027 · 3.46 FIP	24	SP-	3.46	19.0%	3.3%	2.8%	.241	4.88	19.3%	12.9%	88	+1.42	3.46	187	73
Cody Bradford L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	24.6%	5.9%	3.9%	.345	4.22	20.7%	14.9%	325	+0.33	3.45	422	72
John King L 2027 · 2.76 FIP	24	SP	2.76	18.1%	3.9%	1.2%	.310	3.97	17.4%	11.3%	125	+1.21	2.76	430	72
Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP-	3.53	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.261	6.22	16.8%	6.5%	354	+2.69	3.53	522	71
Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	4.07	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.18	2.89	248	71
Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.2%	7.2%	2.4%	.339	3.10	19.0%	12.8%	156	-0.44	2.79	219	70
Colton Gordon L 2026 · 2.76 FIP	23	SP-	2.76	28.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.277	4.46	21.0%	12.8%	394	+1.70	2.76	527	69
Ben Brecht L 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	17.3%	5.5%	3.7%	.237	4.39	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.02	4.37	118	69
Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	16.3%	4.4%	2.7%	.295	4.26	15.7%	8.5%	340	+0.52	3.74	674	68
Payton Tolle L 2026 · 3.08 FIP	23	SP	3.08	25.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	207	67
Dylan Dodd L 2027 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP	3.41	20.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.323	4.95	18.2%	11.3%	277	+1.54	3.41	452	67
Wes Benjamin L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	17.7%	6.1%	3.3%	.321	4.50	16.4%	8.1%	334	+0.29	3.88	666	66
Nick Bush L 2025 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	17.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.320	4.15	19.3%	14.0%	188	+0.72	3.42	320	66
Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.25 FIP	22	SP	3.25	19.3%	7.3%	1.6%	.255	3.43	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.18	2.75	279	66
Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	66
Ryan Smith L 2026 · 4.63 FIP	23	SP	4.63	22.5%	6.9%	4.7%	.293	5.55	18.3%	5.6%	104	+0.92	4.63	233	65
Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.10 FIP	23	SP	3.10	23.9%	9.3%	1.5%	.299	5.99	18.2%	8.4%	143	+2.89	3.10	271	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	76	22.4%	4.8%	1.28	3.96
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Ross Stripling ('24)	9	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Erasmo Ramírez ('24)	8	78	18.1%	5.8%	1.40	4.33
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Jake McGee ('22)	8	44	23.3%	6.3%	1.34	4.27
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04