Mitch Bratt
P
Reno Aces
+0.8
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 2.5 · 2029
ERA4.03
FIP4.03
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%16.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.5peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 19 | 18 | 81 | 336 | 99 | 28 | 4 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 2.45 | 3.42 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 16 | 16 | 61 | 264 | 73 | 17 | 6 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 3.86 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 24 | 21 | 110 | 449 | 117 | 28 | 10 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.72 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 24 | 23 | 122 | 505 | 148 | 21 | 18 | 23.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.38 | 3.43 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | 3 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 8 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.54 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 47 | 13 | 6 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 60 | 249 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 3.54 | 3.24 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 137 | 38 | 18 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 3.96 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 153 | 41 | 19 | 23.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 3.93 | +2.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 160 | 43 | 20 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.92 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 163 | 45 | 21 | 23.8% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 162 | 45 | 21 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 3.97 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 158 | 44 | 21 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 152 | 44 | 20 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 145 | 43 | 20 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 138 | 42 | 20 | 22.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 130 | 41 | 19 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 121 | 40 | 19 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.37 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 112 | 39 | 18 | 21.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 103 | 38 | 18 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 81 | 392 | 1624 | 362 | 113 | 41 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.50 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 829 | 185 | 58 | 21 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.50 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitch Bratt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 3.0% | — | 3.94 | 23.6% | 17.2% | 451 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Marcus Reyes L 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.30 | 21.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.26 | 13.1% | 6.4% | 77 | -0.04 | 3.26 | 193 | 90 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.21 | 22.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | .242 | 3.65 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 89 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 167 | 89 |
| Michael Sansone L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.46 | 24.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .338 | 3.75 | 16.5% | 12.3% | 158 | +0.29 | 3.13 | 186 | 87 |
| Jeff Kinley L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.64 | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | .273 | 4.21 | 16.2% | 5.0% | 169 | +0.57 | 3.64 | 232 | 86 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 24.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | .263 | 4.71 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 298 | +0.82 | 3.74 | 454 | 84 |
| Clint Terry L 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.98 | 18.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | .322 | 4.00 | 10.2% | 0.8% | 77 | +1.02 | 2.98 | 117 | 84 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 2.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.92 | 20.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | .238 | 4.76 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 185 | +1.84 | 2.92 | 379 | 82 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 2.96 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 141 | 82 |
| Jake Rice L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.77 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 130 | +1.63 | 3.14 | 199 | 80 |
| Kirby Bellow L 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.85 | 27.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .164 | 3.86 | 17.9% | 4.5% | 82 | +1.01 | 2.85 | 108 | 78 |
| Holden Capps L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.32 | 18.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | .339 | 3.38 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 73 | +0.06 | 3.00 | 215 | 78 |
| Hunter Patteson L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.16 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .372 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 212 | +1.27 | 3.16 | 228 | 78 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.01 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | .385 | 3.48 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 125 | +0.47 | 3.01 | 176 | 77 |
| Bryan Valdez L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 17.7% | 0.0% | 3.2% | .320 | 4.92 | 12.2% | 5.7% | 113 | +1.58 | 1.73 | 225 | 77 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 77 |
| Trey Jeans L 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.74 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 1.5% | .345 | 5.16 | 22.7% | 7.8% | 88 | +2.42 | 2.74 | 111 | 76 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.89 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .252 | 3.96 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 202 | +1.07 | 2.89 | 248 | 76 |
| Keith Hessler L 2029 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 23.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.42 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 156 | +0.86 | 3.29 | 228 | 76 |
| Jake Kalish L 2027 · 2.68 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.68 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 1.0% | .258 | 3.20 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 270 | +0.52 | 2.68 | 740 | 76 |
| Colton Gordon L 2026 · 2.72 FIP | 23 | SW | 2.72 | 28.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 4.47 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 394 | +1.75 | 2.72 | 463 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.4 | $20M | +$20M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.5 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.5 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $6M | +2.5 | $23M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +2.3 | $22M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +2.1 | $21M | +$8M |
| Totals | $30M | $131M | +$101M | ||