Mitch Bratt — OGILVIE

Mitch Bratt P Reno Aces

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.1 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%19.9%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL2570

CMD5570

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.0

Whiff%

p1014.9%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.4	$9M	+$4M
2030	Arb-2	$13M	+1.3	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$41M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	4	0	6	24	13	0	0	0%	1.5	54.2%	0.0%	54.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.47	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	4	0	6	24	13	0	0	0%	1.5	54.2%	0.0%	54.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.23	—
2022	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	19	18	81	336	99	28	4	95%	4.2	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	1.7%	2.45	3.44	—
2022	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	19	18	81	336	99	28	4	95%	4.2	29.5%	8.3%	21.1%	1.2%	2.45	2.33	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	3.0%	3.54	3.89	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	3.0%	3.54	3.89	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	16	16	61	264	73	17	6	100%	3.8	27.7%	6.4%	21.2%	2.3%	3.54	2.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	2.6%	3.75	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	2.6%	3.75	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	110	449	117	28	10	88%	4.6	26.1%	6.2%	19.8%	2.2%	3.75	2.92	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	23.7%	4.6%	19.2%	3.2%	3.38	3.44	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	23.7%	4.6%	19.2%	3.2%	3.38	3.44	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	23	122	505	148	21	18	96%	5.1	29.3%	4.2%	25.1%	3.6%	3.38	3.11	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	10	44	194	30	26	5	100%	4.4	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	2.6%	4.70	4.99	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	25	25	102	428	84	47	10	100%	4.1	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	2.5%	3.88	4.34	+0.7
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	25	25	102	428	84	47	10	100%	4.1	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	2.5%	3.88	4.34	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	ARI	15	15	58	234	54	21	5	100%	3.9	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	2.1%	3.26	3.46	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	ARI	10	10	44	194	30	26	5	100%	4.4	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	2.6%	4.70	4.91	-0.0
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	ARI	10	10	44	194	30	26	5	100%	4.4	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	2.6%	4.70	4.91	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	7	30	6	2	1	100%	7.2	19.9%	5.8%	14.2%	3.0%	3.79	3.79	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	7	30	6	2	1	100%	7.0	19.9%	5.8%	14.2%	2.8%	3.70	3.70	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	109	458	90	49	11	—	—	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	2.4%	3.88	4.30	+0.8
FULL	23	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	51	216	90	49	11	—	—	41.7%	22.5%	19.1%	5.0%	8.25	5.20	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	129	544	111	35	16	100%	5.6	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.21	4.15	+1.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	142	602	126	37	17	100%	5.9	20.9%	6.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.08	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	150	631	134	39	18	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.10	4.07	+1.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	151	639	135	41	19	100%	6.1	21.2%	6.3%	14.8%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+1.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	151	639	134	41	19	100%	6.1	21.0%	6.5%	14.6%	3.0%	4.16	4.19	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	144	610	127	41	19	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.7%	14.1%	3.2%	4.26	4.32	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	136	573	117	40	19	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.4%	4.41	4.50	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	127	535	107	39	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.4%	12.7%	3.6%	4.59	4.70	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	117	494	97	38	19	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.9%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	107	453	87	37	19	100%	6.0	19.1%	8.2%	10.9%	4.1%	5.02	5.18	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	122	515	105	33	14	100%	5.5	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.06	+1.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	135	570	119	35	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	6.2%	14.7%	2.7%	4.05	3.99	+1.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	142	600	127	37	16	100%	5.9	21.1%	6.2%	14.9%	2.7%	4.01	3.98	+1.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	144	608	129	39	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.3%	14.8%	2.8%	4.02	4.02	+1.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	144	608	128	39	17	100%	6.0	21.0%	6.5%	14.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.10	+1.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	137	578	120	39	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.16	4.22	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	129	545	111	38	17	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.2%	4.31	4.40	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	120	507	102	37	17	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.4%	12.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.59	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	111	469	92	36	17	100%	6.2	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.7%	4.67	4.81	-0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	102	431	82	35	17	100%	6.0	19.1%	8.2%	10.9%	3.9%	4.90	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	228	1338	5659	1152	398	172	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.26	3.94	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	172	59	26	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.26	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		112	103	482	2006	429	152	52	92%	4.3	21.4%	7.6%	13.8%	2.6%	3.40	3.69	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	832	178	63	22	92%	4.3	21.4%	7.6%	13.8%	2.6%	3.40	3.69	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Bratt (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.68	22.2%	3.2%	3.0%	—	4.10	20.8%	14.6%	421	+0.42	—	—	—
Wes Benjamin L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.1%	3.6%	.321	4.52	16.4%	8.1%	334	+0.14	3.87	666	86
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	85
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.67	279	81
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	80
Dillon Overton L 2015 · 3.54 FIP	23	SP	3.54	16.3%	5.9%	1.9%	.314	4.86	13.9%	7.5%	345	+1.32	3.54	631	80
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Michael Velasquez L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	16.7%	6.6%	2.5%	.350	5.07	10.3%	2.8%	88	+1.16	3.91	201	79
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	79
David Peterson L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP	3.64	19.8%	8.2%	2.1%	.333	3.77	24.8%	14.4%	248	+0.13	2.81	1,061	78
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	78
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	78
Trey McGough L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	15.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.278	3.37	21.4%	13.3%	99	-0.35	2.83	227	78
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	77
Brian Johnson L 2015 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	20.3%	8.6%	1.7%	.260	4.58	17.2%	8.3%	294	+1.19	3.39	506	77
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	77
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	77
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	77
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	77
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	130	20.6%	6.6%	1.25	4.31
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17