Diego Natera — OGILVIE

Diego NateraC DSL White Sox

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 44 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .295 / .289

PA44

HR1

K%32

BB%11

BABIP261

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.8	$8M	+$8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.8	$8M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$7M	+$6M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.7	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+1.5	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$19M		$44M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	65	52	5	1	0	1	11	26	2	5	3	96	277	173	450	77	160	40	17	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	65	45	7	2	0	1	18	18	2	5	3	156	415	267	682	111	231	28	28	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	CWS	—	20	17	4	1	1	1	2	10	1	1	0	235	350	588	938	353	500	50	10	323	105	+0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
YTD	18	ROK	CWS	—	20	15	5	1	1	1	4	7	1	1	0	333	500	733	1.233	400	571	35	20	516	253	+3	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.5
ROS	18	ROK	CWS	0%	44	38	7	1	0	1	5	14	1	1	0	184	295	289	585	105	290	32	11	270	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	18	MLB	CWS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		291	—	—	260	57	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	CWS	—	20	18	4	1	1	1	2	10	1	1	0	222	350	556	906	333	429	50	10	323	105	+0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
TOT	18	ROK	CWS	—	64	55	11	2	1	2	7	24	2	2	0	200	312	382	694	182	310	38	11	287	78	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	CWS	34%	157	137	27	5	1	2	16	49	3	3	1	197	295	292	587	95	292	31	10	280	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2028	20	MLB	CWS	48%	303	264	55	10	2	5	31	91	5	6	1	208	303	318	622	110	294	30	10	287	78	-8	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.7
2029	21	MLB	CWS	54%	416	364	77	14	3	8	42	123	7	8	1	212	305	332	638	121	295	30	10	291	81	-9	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.2
2030	22	MLB	CWS	57%	496	434	93	17	4	10	50	146	9	10	2	214	308	341	649	127	296	29	10	294	84	-9	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.5
2031	23	MLB	CWS	58%	520	454	98	18	4	10	52	152	9	10	2	216	309	339	648	123	297	29	10	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.7
2032	24	MLB	CWS	57%	520	453	99	18	4	11	53	152	9	10	2	219	313	349	661	130	298	29	10	298	86	-8	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.7
2033	25	MLB	CWS	57%	520	453	99	18	4	11	53	152	9	10	2	219	313	349	661	130	298	29	10	299	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.8
2034	26	MLB	CWS	57%	520	453	99	18	4	11	53	152	9	10	2	219	313	349	661	130	297	29	10	299	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.8
2035	27	MLB	CWS	55%	520	453	98	18	4	11	53	152	9	10	2	216	311	347	657	130	297	29	10	299	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.8
2036	28	MLB	CWS	55%	520	452	98	18	4	11	54	153	9	10	2	217	313	347	660	131	297	29	10	298	86	-8	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.7
2037	29	MLB	CWS	53%	520	452	98	18	4	11	54	154	9	9	2	217	313	347	660	131	296	30	10	296	85	-9	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2038	30	MLB	CWS	53%	520	452	96	17	4	10	54	155	9	8	1	212	309	334	643	122	294	30	10	293	83	-10	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.3
2039	31	MLB	CWS	52%	504	438	93	17	4	10	52	152	9	7	1	212	309	338	647	126	292	30	10	289	80	-12	+1	-3	+9	+14	1.0
2040	32	MLB	CWS	52%	489	427	86	15	3	9	51	149	8	6	1	201	298	314	612	112	288	30	10	284	76	-14	+1	-4	+9	+14	0.7
2041	33	MLB	CWS	56%	473	413	82	14	3	8	49	147	8	4	1	199	296	305	601	107	284	31	10	278	71	-16	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.2
2042	34	MLB	CWS	52%	430	376	73	12	3	7	44	136	7	3	0	194	290	298	588	104	278	32	10	269	64	-17	+1	-5	+8	+12	-0.2
2027	19	MLB	CWS	34%	54	48	10	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	208	296	312	609	104	293	31	9	269	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	CWS	48%	147	128	27	5	1	3	15	44	3	3	1	211	308	336	644	125	295	30	10	275	69	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	21	MLB	CWS	54%	226	197	42	8	2	4	23	67	4	4	1	213	308	335	643	122	296	30	10	280	72	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2030	22	MLB	CWS	57%	281	246	53	10	2	6	28	82	5	6	1	215	308	346	654	130	297	29	10	283	74	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2031	23	MLB	CWS	58%	299	262	57	11	2	6	30	88	5	6	1	218	310	344	653	126	298	29	10	284	76	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2032	24	MLB	CWS	57%	296	259	55	10	2	6	30	87	5	6	1	212	306	336	642	124	298	29	10	286	77	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2033	25	MLB	CWS	57%	295	258	55	10	2	6	30	86	5	6	1	213	307	337	644	124	298	29	10	287	78	-7	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2034	26	MLB	CWS	57%	294	257	55	10	2	6	30	86	5	6	1	214	308	339	647	125	298	29	10	287	78	-7	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2035	27	MLB	CWS	55%	289	252	54	10	2	6	30	85	5	6	1	214	310	341	651	127	298	29	10	287	78	-7	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2036	28	MLB	CWS	55%	286	249	54	10	2	6	30	84	5	5	1	217	313	345	659	129	297	29	10	286	77	-7	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.6
2037	29	MLB	CWS	53%	278	242	53	10	2	6	29	82	5	5	1	219	315	351	666	132	296	29	10	284	76	-8	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2038	30	MLB	CWS	53%	274	238	50	9	2	5	29	82	5	4	1	210	309	328	637	118	295	30	11	282	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2039	31	MLB	CWS	52%	263	229	48	9	2	5	27	79	5	4	1	210	307	332	638	122	292	30	10	278	71	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2040	32	MLB	CWS	52%	254	222	46	8	2	5	26	78	4	3	1	207	302	329	630	122	289	31	10	272	67	-10	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.1
2041	33	MLB	CWS	56%	265	232	47	8	2	5	27	82	4	2	0	203	297	319	616	116	285	31	10	266	62	-11	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.1
2042	34	MLB	CWS	52%	221	192	37	6	1	4	23	70	4	1	0	193	292	297	589	104	279	32	10	258	56	-11	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4022	3512	743	136	28	80	412	1199	70	68	13	212	307	335	641	123	295	30	10	280	73	-124	+8	-10	+72	+114	6.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	121	22	5	13	67	194	11	11	2	213	308	338	646	125	298	30	10	280	73	-20	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	7537	6565	1383	249	55	147	777	2255	131	130	26	211	307	333	639	122	294	30	10	291	81	-163	+16	-20	+135	+214	18.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	119	21	5	13	67	194	11	11	2	210	305	334	639	124	293	30	10	291	81	-14	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	65	45	7	2	0	1	18	18	2	5	3	156	415	267	682	111	231	28	28	343	121	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	12	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
	/162	664	19	1	227	312	387	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,085	78	70	212	304	335	+73	+36	10.8	8.8
	/162	664	13	11	212	304	335	+11.9	+5.9	1.8	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Diego Natera (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	200/312/382	182	310	2	2	38%	11%	78	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	45→46	39→50	51→55	53	209/310/290	81	290	7	9	27%	11%	73	-0.1	209/281/326	117	306	11	14	33%	8%	69	-0.4	230/282/341	111	315	10	15	29%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→46	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	63	-0.9	210/268/306	96	286	7	34	27%	7%	58	-1.2	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Yohan Matos 2015 · A	18	44	43→45	51→45	42	216/276/330	114	300	10	8	30%	7%	68	-0.5	192/252/275	83	305	6	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	166/241/231	64	289	0	11	39%	8%	24	-0.7
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	72	-0.2	235/300/339	104	298	6	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	42	41→45	48→40	42	201/285/303	102	283	9	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	214/290/334	120	285	13	5	28%	8%	76	+0.0	213/279/330	117	277	14	2	27%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Leopoldo Correa 2010 · A	18	41	42→45	50→30	48	197/280/305	107	291	9	5	33%	10%	63	-0.8	210/272/297	87	263	6	3	21%	7%	57	-1.2	212/269/300	89	261	8	0	21%	6%	53	-0.5
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Francisco Acuna 2018 · A	18	39→49	37→45	55→50	55	183/284/257	74	242	4	15	24%	11%	54	-1.4	194/267/263	69	267	3	9	26%	8%	47	-1.9	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→42	42→50	44→50	45	227/318/334	107	303	8	7	26%	7%	88	+0.9	214/310/343	129	287	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	219/307/369	150	281	18	13	27%	8%	90	+0.9
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	211/276/297	86	310	7	9	32%	8%	59	-1.1	239/285/329	90	301	8	17	22%	5%	70	-0.3	252/302/359	107	305	10	17	20%	6%	82	+0.4
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0