Diego Natera

C DSL White Sox

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1271ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKCWS	65	.156/.415/.267	1	5	39	—	.080/.292/.100
2026	18	ROKCWS	40	.314/.400/.600	1	1	54	—	.194/.275/.333
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBCWS	150	.198/.287/.292	1	3	67	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBCWS	30	.204/.293/.306	0	1	71	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBCWS	86	.208/.296/.317	1	2	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO96

wOBA87

Speed86

wRC+82

Chase%64

BB%15

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAndrés Nolaya (age 19) · Miguel Palma (age 19) · Chris Suero (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .285 / .290

PA31

HR0

K%31

BB%10

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	65	45	7	2	0	1	18	18	2	5	3	156	415	267	682	111	231	28	28	343	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL White Sox	—	40	35	11	5	1	1	4	13	1	1	0	314	400	600	1.000	286	476	32	10	432	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	65	50	4	1	0	0	13	22	2	5	3	80	292	100	392	20	144	34	20	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	40	36	7	3	1	0	3	16	1	1	0	194	275	333	608	139	292	40	8	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	65	50	4	1	0	0	13	22	2	5	3	80	292	100	392	20	143	34	20	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	—	65	45	7	2	0	1	18	18	2	5	3	156	415	267	682	111	231	28	28	343	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	40	36	7	3	1	0	3	16	1	1	0	194	275	333	608	139	350	40	8	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	—	40	35	11	5	1	1	4	13	1	1	0	314	400	600	1.000	286	476	32	10	432	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	65	50	4	1	0	0	13	22	2	5	3	80	292	100	392	20	144	34	20	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	40	36	7	3	1	0	3	16	1	1	0	194	275	333	608	139	292	40	8	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	65	50	4	1	0	0	13	22	2	5	3	80	292	100	392	20	144	34	20	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	—	40	36	7	3	1	0	3	16	1	1	0	194	275	333	608	139	292	40	8	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	150	133	26	6	1	1	14	46	2	3	0	198	287	292	579	94	290	31	9	267	67	-6	+1	+0	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	CWS	34%	87	78	15	3	1	1	8	26	1	2	0	203	292	304	596	101	291	30	9	273	71	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	CWS	48%	178	156	32	7	1	2	17	53	3	3	1	207	296	315	610	108	292	30	10	279	75	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	CWS	54%	289	255	53	12	2	4	28	84	4	5	1	210	298	324	622	113	293	29	10	284	78	-8	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	CWS	57%	381	336	71	15	3	6	36	110	6	7	2	214	301	332	633	118	294	29	9	288	81	-9	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	CWS	57%	440	389	84	18	3	8	42	125	6	8	2	216	303	339	642	123	295	28	10	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2033	25	MLB MLE	CWS	57%	445	394	85	18	3	8	42	127	6	8	2	217	303	341	644	124	295	29	9	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	CWS	60%	445	394	85	18	3	8	42	127	6	8	2	217	303	342	645	125	295	29	9	292	84	-8	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	CWS	62%	445	393	84	18	3	8	43	127	6	8	2	216	302	339	641	124	294	29	10	291	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	CWS	63%	445	394	84	18	3	8	42	128	6	6	2	214	300	334	635	121	293	29	9	288	81	-10	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	CWS	64%	445	394	83	18	3	7	42	129	6	5	2	211	297	328	625	117	291	29	9	284	79	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	445	394	82	17	3	7	42	131	6	3	1	208	294	320	614	112	289	29	9	280	75	-13	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	426	378	77	16	3	6	40	127	5	0	1	204	289	310	599	106	286	30	9	274	71	-15	-0	-3	+8	+9	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	CWS	34%	30	27	5	1	0	0	3	9	0	1	0	204	293	306	598	102	292	30	10	274	71	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	CWS	48%	86	77	15	3	1	1	8	26	1	2	0	208	296	317	613	109	293	30	9	280	75	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	CWS	54%	157	139	28	6	1	2	15	46	2	3	1	211	299	326	625	115	294	29	10	285	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	CWS	57%	216	190	42	9	2	4	21	62	3	4	1	214	302	334	636	120	295	29	10	289	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	CWS	57%	249	219	47	10	2	4	24	71	4	5	1	217	304	341	645	124	296	29	10	292	83	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	CWS	57%	251	221	48	10	2	5	24	71	4	5	1	218	304	343	647	126	296	28	10	293	84	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	CWS	60%	268	236	51	11	2	5	26	76	4	5	1	218	304	344	648	127	295	28	10	294	84	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	CWS	62%	276	244	52	11	2	5	26	79	4	5	1	216	303	342	645	125	295	29	9	292	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	CWS	63%	281	248	53	11	2	5	27	81	4	4	1	215	301	337	638	122	294	29	10	289	81	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	CWS	64%	284	251	53	11	2	5	27	83	4	3	1	212	298	330	628	118	292	29	10	286	79	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	289	256	53	11	2	5	27	85	4	2	1	209	294	322	616	113	290	29	9	281	75	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	277	246	51	11	2	4	26	83	3	0	1	204	289	312	601	108	286	30	9	275	71	-9	-0	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2664	2354	498	105	20	45	254	772	37	39	10	212	298	331	629	119	293	29	10	287	79	-65	+4	-5	+48	+58	4.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	122	26	5	11	62	188	9	10	2	213	299	333	632	120	294	29	10	287	79	-16	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4607	4069	851	183	32	73	443	1342	64	70	21	209	297	324	620	115	291	29	10	285	79	-110	+6	-7	+80	+98	6.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	120	26	5	10	63	189	9	10	3	209	298	324	622	115	291	29	10	285	79	-16	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL White Sox · 40 PAwOBA .420 → .248 (−172)K% 32.5% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.50%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	39.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.96%
HBP% /PA	2.50%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.74%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.995	12.30%
Doubles /BIP	22.73%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	13.57%
Triples /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	2.71%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	2.13%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .420 → .248; ISO .286 → .150; BABIP .476 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL White Sox · 65 PAwOBA .337 → .226 (−110)K% 27.7% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.69%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	33.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.69%	÷1.005	×0.700	—	×1.008	19.43%
HBP% /PA	3.08%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.17%
Singles /BIP	14.81%	÷1.021	×0.680	—	×1.008	9.94%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷1.070	×0.600	—	×1.008	4.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.927	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.102	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.59%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 114, 3B 85, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .337 → .226; ISO .111 → .058; BABIP .231 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.1	2,696	44	38	213	296	331	+48	+32	5.9	5.4
/162	664	11	9	+11.9	+7.9	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Diego Natera (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	197/285/290	93	290	0	1	31%	10%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	40	39→45	48→40	45	193/281/280	88	261	6	11	27%	7%	63	-1.3	215/293/337	122	281	13	5	27%	8%	80	-0.1	217/284/341	124	274	15	2	26%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	40→38	37→45	47→55	52	185/290/259	74	266	4	8	29%	11%	62	-1.4	194/289/297	103	280	10	14	31%	10%	70	-0.8	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Johanfran Garcia 2024 · A	19	41	40→50	49→45	42	199/270/291	93	282	8	6	31%	7%	61	-1.5	219/276/349	130	326	16	5	36%	6%	76	-0.4	218/265/369	151	318	23	4	38%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	36→44	40→50	47→50	46	175/264/271	96	263	7	8	34%	10%	55	-2.0	204/267/339	135	290	14	10	33%	7%	70	-0.8	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Carlos Cauro 2024 · A	19	40	40	46→45	49	193/286/282	89	274	7	4	30%	10%	65	-1.2	204/280/311	107	300	11	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	198/280/293	95	285	12	5	32%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	37	39→45	46→45	53	177/289/262	85	262	6	6	31%	12%	63	-1.4	182/260/254	72	283	5	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	44→45	41→50	51→50	45	211/277/319	108	290	7	12	28%	8%	70	-0.9	206/259/297	91	291	6	11	30%	6%	57	-1.8	210/267/353	143	267	17	14	28%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Luis Puello 2024 · A	18	42	36→55	50	47	191/283/258	66	287	2	10	31%	9%	59	-1.7	199/263/294	95	299	8	8	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/247/314	123	286	14	8	37%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Richard Ramirez 2024 · A	19	34	39→55	48→40	46	173/246/259	86	244	7	5	31%	9%	45	-2.7	199/260/315	116	319	12	4	39%	7%	62	-1.4	198/255/335	137	313	16	2	40%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Clayton Campbell 2024 · A	20	38→44	41→45	49→45	44	182/275/289	108	287	8	6	36%	9%	63	-1.3	183/257/268	85	265	7	6	32%	8%	51	-2.3	180/250/259	79	256	8	5	31%	7%	45	-1.4
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	40	185/238/269	84	259	7	4	30%	6%	43	-2.8	195/239/273	78	247	5	3	22%	5%	44	-2.8	242/310/379	137	297	17	3	24%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6

Diego Natera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps