Andrés Nolaya — OGILVIE

Andrés NolayaC Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR +8%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.0 · 2032

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .268 / .299

PA183

HR3

SB8

K%30

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

25→25

PWR

20→20

SPD

60→60

EYE

46↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.9	$18M	+$17M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.0	$19M	+$18M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.9	$19M	+$18M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.7	$17M	+$14M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.5	$16M	+$11M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.2	$13M	+$7M
Totals		$16M		$101M	+$85M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	117	100	14	2	0	0	13	38	3	6	5	.140	.259	.160	.419	.020	.222	32	11	.203	14	-11	-1	+0	+2	+3	-0.7
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	142	130	23	5	1	1	9	53	0	9	4	.177	.230	.254	.484	.077	.278	37	6	.218	25	-12	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.5
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	114	97	17	2	1	0	11	32	2	9	3	.175	.273	.216	.489	.041	.246	28	10	.230	34	-8	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	196	173	30	5	1	1	11	72	8	16	2	.173	.255	.231	.486	.058	.290	37	6	.216	24	-17	+2	+0	+4	+6	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	45	42	10	3	0	0	3	10	0	4	0	.238	.289	.310	.598	.071	.312	22	7	.279	72	-1	+1	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	138	125	26	5	1	2	10	41	2	4	1	.208	.277	.312	.589	.104	.284	30	7	.261	58	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
TOT	21	MLB	BAL	183	167	36	8	1	2	13	51	2	8	1	.216	.280	.311	.592	.096	.296	28	7	.266	61	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	BAL	262	235	52	11	1	5	21	69	4	8	1	.221	.296	.340	.637	.119	.284	26	8	.284	75	-7	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.6
2028	23	MLB 28%	BAL	360	322	73	15	2	8	30	92	5	10	2	.227	.303	.360	.663	.134	.286	26	8	.293	82	-7	+1	+0	+6	+10	1.1
2029	24	MLB 45%	BAL	427	381	86	17	2	10	37	107	6	12	2	.226	.304	.360	.664	.134	.286	25	9	.299	87	-6	+2	+0	+8	+12	1.5
2030	25	MLB 60%	BAL	464	413	94	19	2	11	41	115	7	12	2	.228	.308	.363	.671	.136	.287	25	9	.302	90	-5	+2	+0	+8	+13	1.8
2031	26	MLB 77%	BAL	486	432	99	20	2	12	44	120	7	12	2	.229	.311	.368	.679	.139	.288	25	9	.304	91	-5	+2	+0	+9	+14	1.9
2032	27	MLB 92%	BAL	495	440	100	20	2	12	45	123	7	12	2	.227	.309	.364	.673	.136	.288	25	9	.304	91	-5	+2	+0	+9	+14	2.0
2033	28	MLB	BAL	495	440	100	20	2	12	45	124	7	12	1	.227	.309	.364	.673	.136	.287	25	9	.303	90	-6	+2	-1	+9	+14	1.9
2034	29	MLB	BAL	489	434	97	19	2	11	45	124	7	11	1	.224	.307	.353	.659	.129	.286	25	9	.301	88	-6	+2	-1	+9	+14	1.7
2035	30	MLB	BAL	481	427	95	19	2	11	44	123	7	11	0	.222	.305	.354	.659	.131	.285	26	9	.298	86	-8	+2	-2	+9	+14	1.5
2036	31	MLB	BAL	454	403	89	18	2	10	42	118	6	9	0	.221	.304	.350	.654	.129	.283	26	9	.294	83	-9	+2	-3	+8	+13	1.2
2037	32	MLB	BAL	424	376	82	16	2	9	39	113	6	8	0	.218	.302	.343	.645	.125	.282	27	9	.289	80	-10	+2	-4	+8	+12	0.8
2038	33	MLB	BAL	384	341	72	14	2	7	35	105	5	7	0	.211	.294	.326	.619	.114	.280	27	9	.284	75	-11	+1	-4	+7	+11	0.4
2039	34	MLB	BAL	331	294	61	12	1	6	30	93	4	6	0	.207	.290	.316	.606	.109	.278	28	9	.278	71	-11	+1	-5	+6	+9	0.1
2040	35	MLB	BAL	275	245	49	9	1	5	25	80	3	5	0	.200	.282	.306	.588	.106	.276	29	9	.270	65	-11	+1	-6	+5	+8	-0.3
2041	36	MLB	BAL	217	193	37	7	1	3	19	66	3	4	0	.192	.274	.285	.559	.093	.273	30	9	.261	58	-10	+1	-6	+4	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6751	6001	1296	255	30	136	596	1808	99	183	28	.216	.297	.336	.634	.120	.283	27	9	.286	77	-172	+25	-31	+121	+191	13.6
/ 162G	—			650	578	125	25	3	13	57	174	10	18	3	.216	.298	.337	.635	.121	.284	27	9	.286	77	-17	+2	-3	+12	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	117	92	17	3	0	0	21	26	3	6	5	.185	.353	.217	.571	.033	.254	22	18	.285	77	-3	-1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	142	123	36	8	2	1	16	33	0	9	4	.293	.374	.415	.789	.122	.380	23	11	.348	124	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	114	91	20	2	2	0	17	24	2	9	3	.220	.355	.286	.640	.066	.282	21	15	.295	84	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	196	167	34	6	1	1	17	50	8	16	2	.204	.307	.269	.577	.066	.284	26	9	.269	64	-8	+2	—	—	+6	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrés Nolaya (OGILVIE)	21	25	20	60	35	.199/.268/.299	.099	.281	3	4	30%	7%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	39	40	52→50	40	.191/.251/.288	.097	.267	7	14	30%	6%	46	-2.0	.196/.259/.275	.079	.316	7	10	37%	7%	46	-2.0	.190/.261/.265	.075	.295	9	10	36%	7%	42	-1.1
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	37	38→40	54→60	42	.177/.252/.256	.078	.282	5	19	36%	8%	39	-2.5	.189/.255/.265	.076	.277	5	11	31%	7%	42	-2.3	.172/.238/.215	.043	.239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	39→40	49→40	40	.198/.263/.282	.084	.277	6	7	29%	6%	50	-1.7	.218/.296/.304	.086	.283	8	4	24%	7%	70	-0.3	.219/.302/.289	.070	.280	7	1	22%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	40	38→40	47→55	47	.192/.263/.275	.082	.250	5	9	24%	8%	48	-1.9	.212/.292/.300	.088	.255	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	.209/.299/.290	.080	.241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	43	39→50	51→45	39	.202/.262/.293	.090	.301	6	7	33%	6%	52	-1.6	.193/.267/.305	.112	.296	13	8	37%	7%	59	-1.1	.178/.253/.291	.113	.253	15	7	34%	7%	47	-0.8
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	39	39→45	53→50	46	.186/.268/.273	.087	.271	6	14	31%	9%	50	-1.7	.188/.261/.284	.096	.328	7	13	41%	8%	50	-1.7	.138/.200/.215	.077	.281	6	16	50%	7%	4	-1.7
✕José Caballero 2018 · A	21	47→45	39→45	53→70	39	.223/.275/.316	.093	.301	6	8	27%	5%	63	-0.8	.224/.292/.329	.105	.281	8	18	22%	7%	75	-0.0	.229/.321/.344	.115	.305	10	63	26%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Ramon Soto 2009 · AAA	21	44	42→30	51→45	44	.220/.275/.323	.103	.279	11	12	25%	6%	66	-0.6	.233/.277/.301	.068	.286	5	8	19%	5%	59	-1.1	.272/.316/.326	.054	.333	2	7	18%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Brandon Dailey 2013 · A	21	42	40→45	55	38	.205/.251/.300	.096	.293	7	12	32%	5%	49	-1.8	.195/.247/.295	.100	.280	9	6	32%	6%	46	-2.0	.144/.200/.220	.075	.194	6	0	28%	5%	7	-1.1
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	39→47	40	52→60	45	.186/.279/.272	.086	.285	7	15	34%	9%	56	-1.3	.195/.294/.278	.083	.290	6	17	31%	11%	63	-0.8	.215/.301/.289	.073	.310	4	35	29%	9%	66	-0.3
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→40	42→45	53→55	35	.184/.244/.282	.097	.281	10	12	37%	5%	43	-2.2	.196/.251/.317	.121	.287	14	16	35%	5%	54	-1.4	.198/.249/.325	.127	.276	15	22	33%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Maximo Rivera 2014 · A	21	45	40→45	53→60	43	.219/.272/.307	.089	.279	8	21	24%	6%	59	-1.1	.213/.262/.283	.070	.295	4	11	27%	6%	49	-1.8	.198/.239/.245	.047	.274	3	7	27%	5%	25	-0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	37→36	45→50	54→50	38	.192/.253/.319	.127	.271	12	13	33%	6%	56	-1.3	.204/.262/.355	.151	.295	18	14	36%	6%	69	-0.4	.197/.258/.362	.165	.284	22	15	38%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→38	40	52→50	41	.194/.257/.285	.090	.273	7	15	30%	7%	48	-1.9	.199/.267/.276	.077	.296	4	8	31%	8%	50	-1.8	.188/.268/.257	.069	.288	3	7	33%	9%	42	-1.4
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	42→30	38→45	56→50	41	.197/.266/.279	.082	.311	5	16	36%	8%	50	-1.7	.214/.271/.343	.129	.318	13	13	35%	6%	69	-0.4	.203/.261/.318	.115	.298	12	16	35%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	43	.207/.263/.285	.078	.260	5	17	22%	5%	50	-1.7	.207/.257/.291	.084	.292	7	11	30%	5%	50	-1.8	.194/.239/.274	.079	.290	9	9	35%	3%	34	-0.7
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2021 · A	22	44	39→40	53→60	40	.210/.265/.300	.090	.306	6	14	32%	6%	54	-1.4	.187/.266/.264	.077	.308	6	22	38%	8%	47	-1.9	.145/.239/.202	.057	.243	5	33	39%	9%	19	-1.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	43	41→45	50	43	.204/.273/.304	.100	.299	8	11	32%	8%	59	-1.1	.191/.262/.285	.094	.292	6	14	34%	8%	50	-1.7	.147/.226/.244	.097	.221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Victor Soto 2010 · A	21	39	37→45	56→60	40	.189/.243/.268	.079	.265	3	22	29%	6%	37	-2.7	.197/.241/.269	.072	.289	3	15	31%	5%	36	-2.7	.187/.218/.237	.050	.279	0	18	32%	3%	15	-0.8
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→43	43→45	56→50	42	.224/.277/.340	.116	.301	9	15	28%	6%	70	-0.3	.218/.275/.336	.118	.288	10	12	27%	6%	69	-0.4	.212/.270/.327	.116	.280	10	13	27%	6%	62	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)