Andrés Nolaya — OGILVIE

Andrés NolayaC Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION231 act + 154 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .275 / .312

PA154

HR2

SB6

K%23

BB%6

BABIP269

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.3M
Totals		$10M		$30M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	117	100	14	2	0	0	13	38	3	6	5	140	259	160	419	20	222	32	11	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	117	92	17	3	0	0	21	26	3	6	5	185	353	217	571	33	254	22	18	285	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	142	130	23	5	1	1	9	54	0	9	4	177	230	254	484	77	282	38	6	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	142	123	36	8	2	1	16	33	0	9	4	293	374	415	789	122	380	23	11	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	114	97	17	2	1	0	11	32	2	9	3	175	273	216	489	41	246	28	10	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	114	91	20	2	2	0	17	24	2	9	3	220	355	286	640	66	282	21	15	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	196	173	31	6	1	1	11	72	8	16	2	179	260	243	503	64	300	37	6	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	196	167	34	6	1	1	17	50	8	16	2	204	307	269	577	66	284	26	9	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	BAL	—	231	205	48	8	2	4	15	55	6	13	2	234	305	351	657	117	297	24	6	280	72	-7	+2	+0	+4	+7	0.5
YTD	21	A	BAL	—	231	196	53	10	2	4	24	39	6	13	2	270	367	403	770	133	316	17	10	342	120	+5	+2	+0	+4	+7	1.8
ROS	21	A	BAL	0%	154	141	30	6	1	2	9	36	3	6	1	213	275	312	587	99	273	23	6	264	60	-7	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		277	—	—	252	51	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	BAL	—	231	206	48	8	2	4	15	55	6	13	2	233	305	350	655	117	295	24	6	280	72	-7	+2	+0	+4	+7	0.5
TOT	21	A	BAL	—	385	346	78	14	3	6	24	91	9	19	3	225	293	335	628	110	286	24	6	273	67	-14	+3	+0	+7	+11	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BAL	34%	355	322	71	14	2	5	23	83	7	9	2	220	287	323	610	102	275	23	6	273	67	-13	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.4
2028	23	MLB	BAL	48%	427	388	86	17	2	7	28	98	8	11	2	222	288	330	618	108	277	23	7	282	74	-13	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.9
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	473	429	98	19	3	9	32	107	9	12	2	228	296	350	645	121	279	23	7	288	78	-12	+2	+0	+8	+13	1.2
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	494	448	102	19	3	10	34	112	9	12	2	228	295	350	646	123	279	23	7	290	80	-11	+2	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	506	457	104	20	3	10	35	114	9	13	2	228	295	350	646	123	279	23	7	291	81	-11	+2	+0	+9	+14	1.5
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	507	457	104	20	3	10	36	115	9	13	2	228	297	350	647	123	279	23	7	291	81	-11	+2	+0	+9	+14	1.5
2033	28	MLB	BAL	55%	504	454	104	20	3	10	36	115	9	12	2	229	299	352	651	123	279	23	7	290	80	-11	+2	-1	+9	+14	1.3
2034	29	MLB	BAL	58%	494	446	101	19	3	10	36	114	9	11	2	226	297	350	647	123	278	23	7	288	79	-12	+1	-1	+9	+14	1.1
2035	30	MLB	BAL	60%	484	437	96	18	2	9	35	112	9	11	2	220	291	332	623	112	277	23	7	285	77	-13	+1	-2	+9	+14	0.9
2036	31	MLB	BAL	62%	456	412	90	17	2	8	33	107	8	9	2	218	289	328	617	109	274	23	7	281	73	-14	+1	-3	+8	+13	0.6
2027	22	MLB	BAL	34%	122	111	25	5	1	2	8	28	2	3	1	225	289	342	632	117	279	23	7	263	59	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	23	MLB	BAL	48%	207	187	42	8	1	4	14	47	4	5	1	225	293	342	635	118	281	23	7	272	67	-8	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	249	225	52	10	1	5	17	57	5	6	1	231	300	351	651	120	283	23	7	278	71	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	270	244	57	11	1	6	19	61	5	7	1	234	302	361	663	127	284	23	7	281	73	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	282	255	59	11	2	6	20	64	5	7	1	231	300	361	661	129	283	23	7	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	279	252	58	11	1	6	20	63	5	7	1	230	300	353	653	123	283	23	7	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	28	MLB	BAL	55%	275	248	57	11	1	6	20	63	5	7	1	230	300	355	655	125	283	23	7	281	73	-8	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2034	29	MLB	BAL	58%	286	258	58	11	1	6	21	66	5	7	1	225	296	345	641	120	282	23	7	279	72	-9	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2035	30	MLB	BAL	60%	291	263	59	11	1	6	21	68	5	6	1	224	294	342	636	118	281	23	7	276	70	-10	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2036	31	MLB	BAL	62%	281	254	56	11	1	5	20	66	5	6	1	220	290	331	621	110	278	23	7	272	67	-11	+1	-2	+5	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2542	2298	523	100	11	52	180	583	46	61	10	228	297	349	645	121	282	23	7	278	71	-84	+8	-4	+45	+72	3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	134	26	3	13	46	149	12	16	3	228	298	349	646	121	282	23	7	278	71	-21	+2	-1	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	5423	4891	1071	204	30	92	381	1309	102	159	35	219	289	329	619	110	278	24	7	279	71	-175	+18	-7	+97	+154	8.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	24	4	11	46	157	12	19	4	218	289	329	618	111	277	24	7	279	71	-21	+2	-1	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	117	92	17	3	0	0	21	26	3	6	5	185	353	217	571	33	254	22	18	285	77	-3	-1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	142	123	36	8	2	1	16	33	0	9	4	293	374	415	789	122	380	23	11	348	124	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	114	91	20	2	2	0	17	24	2	9	3	220	355	286	640	66	282	21	15	295	84	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	196	167	34	6	1	1	17	50	8	16	2	204	307	269	577	66	284	26	9	269	64	-8	+2	—	—	+6	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,790	50	67	224	289	338	+50	+24	5.8	5.4
	/162	664	12	16	224	289	338	+11.9	+5.7	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrés Nolaya (OGILVIE)	21	25	20	60	35	225/293/335	110	286	6	19	24%	6%	67	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	48	-1.9	205/257/290	85	298	7	10	32%	5%	49	-1.8	185/231/261	77	287	9	9	37%	3%	28	-0.8
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	34	-2.8	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	56	-1.3	240/291/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Alfredo González 2013 · A	21	39	35→40	51→45	39	186/228/249	63	238	2	10	22%	4%	25	-3.5	214/274/288	74	290	5	9	26%	7%	56	-1.3	229/290/281	52	315	3	6	26%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Victor Soto 2010 · A	21	39	37→45	56→60	40	188/240/265	77	263	3	22	29%	5%	35	-2.8	199/243/272	73	293	3	14	31%	5%	37	-2.6	187/218/237	50	279	0	18	32%	3%	15	-0.8
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Dixon Mavares 2007 · A	21	46	35→30	51→50	44	215/285/275	60	277	1	11	22%	6%	57	-1.2	220/294/288	68	262	3	10	16%	8%	65	-0.7	223/303/283	60	253	3	11	12%	8%	65	-0.2
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	43	37→40	55→45	46	200/274/277	78	262	3	13	23%	7%	54	-1.4	206/269/298	92	281	7	9	27%	7%	56	-1.3	184/247/261	77	274	7	8	33%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Robert Del Rosario 2013 · A	21	40	36→40	53→55	45	191/251/257	67	255	4	15	26%	7%	38	-2.6	212/263/277	65	287	3	13	26%	6%	47	-1.9	226/270/269	43	303	0	17	24%	4%	46	-0.7
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	46	-2.0	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	73	-0.1	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Jesus Villegas 2008 · A	21	40	36→40	50	40	188/252/260	71	252	3	8	25%	5%	40	-2.4	223/278/291	68	291	4	7	23%	6%	58	-1.2	233/283/293	59	302	4	8	23%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Cristian Paulino 2013 · A	21	41	37→40	55→60	40	197/250/272	75	271	4	17	28%	6%	41	-2.3	209/254/301	92	275	6	21	25%	4%	50	-1.8	209/253/310	101	269	7	28	24%	4%	48	-0.6
✕Erlin Cerda 2016 · A	22	45	35→40	53→55	47	208/277/280	72	264	1	14	20%	7%	55	-1.4	198/248/269	71	293	2	9	31%	5%	39	-2.5	163/196/205	43	251	0	8	34%	3%	-4	-1.3
✕Erick Brito 2023 · A	21	45→43	35→30	52→55	47	212/278/275	63	281	2	16	24%	8%	54	-1.4	210/271/275	65	269	3	20	22%	6%	51	-1.7	214/271/281	67	280	3	23	23%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	42	37→45	51→50	45	200/253/283	83	254	3	11	22%	6%	45	-2.1	203/251/281	78	279	3	11	27%	6%	43	-2.2	195/231/264	69	262	0	19	24%	4%	29	-0.6
✕Jonatan Santana 2009 · A	21	43	36→40	53→55	49	203/268/269	66	250	2	14	19%	8%	48	-1.9	199/251/270	71	254	4	10	22%	6%	41	-2.3	182/226/239	57	234	3	7	22%	4%	18	-1.1
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Mikey Edie 2017 · A	20	43	34→30	50	36	201/262/254	53	296	2	14	31%	4%	42	-2.3	217/267/280	63	316	2	13	30%	4%	50	-1.7	206/255/265	59	290	3	7	28%	3%	37	-1.3
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/269	81	260	6	7	29%	6%	42	-2.3	199/274/280	81	291	6	6	31%	8%	55	-1.4	183/255/250	66	251	6	11	27%	8%	37	-0.7