Andrés Nolaya
C Delmarva Shorebirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKBAL | 114 | .220/.355/.286 | 0 | 9 | 39 | — | .175/.273/.216 |
| 2025 | 20 | ABAL | 196 | .204/.307/.269 | 1 | 16 | 38 | — | .180/.266/.238 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ABAL | 307 | .275/.381/.415 | 7 | 16 | 83 | — | .237/.318/.352 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBAL | 417 | .209/.280/.302 | 5 | 10 | 66 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 79 | .217/.288/.324 | 1 | 2 | 72 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 144 | .221/.293/.336 | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Orange | — | 117 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 185 | 353 | 217 | 571 | 33 | 254 | 22 | 18 | 285 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 142 | 123 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 293 | 374 | 415 | 789 | 122 | 380 | 23 | 11 | 348 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 114 | 91 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 220 | 355 | 286 | 640 | 66 | 282 | 21 | 15 | 295 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 196 | 167 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 204 | 307 | 269 | 577 | 66 | 284 | 26 | 9 | 269 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 57 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 222 | 386 | 356 | 742 | 133 | 267 | 23 | 18 | 348 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 250 | 213 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 40 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 286 | 380 | 427 | 807 | 141 | 329 | 16 | 10 | 357 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 117 | 98 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 122 | 259 | 143 | 401 | 20 | 179 | 27 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 142 | 129 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 171 | 230 | 248 | 478 | 78 | 230 | 30 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 114 | 97 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 175 | 273 | 216 | 489 | 41 | 231 | 29 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 196 | 172 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 180 | 266 | 238 | 504 | 58 | 279 | 35 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 57 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 184 | 298 | 306 | 604 | 122 | 237 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 250 | 221 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 54 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 249 | 322 | 362 | 684 | 113 | 298 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 117 | 98 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 122 | 259 | 143 | 401 | 20 | 179 | 27 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BAL Orange | — | 117 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 185 | 353 | 217 | 571 | 33 | 254 | 22 | 18 | 285 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 142 | 129 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 171 | 230 | 248 | 478 | 78 | 239 | 30 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 142 | 123 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 293 | 374 | 415 | 789 | 122 | 380 | 23 | 11 | 348 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 114 | 97 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 175 | 273 | 216 | 489 | 41 | 250 | 29 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 114 | 91 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 220 | 355 | 286 | 640 | 66 | 282 | 21 | 15 | 295 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 196 | 172 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 180 | 266 | 238 | 504 | 58 | 291 | 35 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 196 | 167 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 204 | 307 | 269 | 577 | 66 | 284 | 26 | 9 | 269 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 270 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 72 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 237 | 318 | 352 | 670 | 115 | 299 | 23 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 307 | 258 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 53 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 275 | 381 | 415 | 796 | 140 | 320 | 17 | 12 | 355 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 117 | 98 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 122 | 259 | 143 | 401 | 20 | 179 | 27 | 13 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 142 | 131 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 168 | 230 | 244 | 474 | 76 | 230 | 30 | 7 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 114 | 100 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 170 | 273 | 210 | 483 | 40 | 231 | 29 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 196 | 174 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 178 | 266 | 236 | 501 | 57 | 279 | 35 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 272 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 72 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 235 | 318 | 349 | 667 | 114 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 114 | 100 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 170 | 273 | 210 | 483 | 40 | 231 | 29 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 196 | 174 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 178 | 266 | 236 | 501 | 57 | 279 | 35 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 272 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 72 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 235 | 318 | 349 | 667 | 114 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 417 | 376 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 95 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 209 | 280 | 302 | 582 | 93 | 262 | 23 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 231 | 208 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 285 | 318 | 603 | 104 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 46% | 312 | 281 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 70 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 217 | 289 | 328 | 618 | 111 | 267 | 22 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 362 | 326 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 81 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 219 | 292 | 335 | 627 | 116 | 268 | 22 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 390 | 351 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 87 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 293 | 339 | 632 | 118 | 269 | 22 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 401 | 361 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 90 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 294 | 340 | 633 | 119 | 270 | 22 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 402 | 362 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 91 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 219 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 116 | 269 | 23 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 394 | 355 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 91 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 216 | 289 | 328 | 617 | 112 | 267 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 57% | 383 | 345 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 89 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 213 | 285 | 321 | 605 | 107 | 265 | 23 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -13 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 79 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 288 | 324 | 613 | 107 | 269 | 23 | 8 | 278 | 72 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 46% | 144 | 130 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 293 | 336 | 628 | 115 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 284 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 187 | 168 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 295 | 343 | 638 | 120 | 272 | 22 | 7 | 288 | 78 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 211 | 190 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 296 | 346 | 643 | 122 | 273 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 79 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 218 | 195 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 49 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 297 | 347 | 644 | 123 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 80 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 218 | 196 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 50 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 222 | 295 | 342 | 637 | 120 | 273 | 23 | 8 | 288 | 78 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 209 | 188 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 292 | 336 | 628 | 116 | 271 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 75 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 57% | 218 | 197 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 51 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 288 | 328 | 616 | 111 | 269 | 23 | 7 | 279 | 72 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1484 | 1336 | 296 | 55 | 7 | 29 | 113 | 337 | 22 | 34 | 7 | 222 | 293 | 338 | 631 | 117 | 273 | 23 | 8 | 286 | 70 | -41 | +4 | -2 | +26 | +32 | 1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 130 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 148 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 222 | 293 | 340 | 634 | 118 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 286 | 70 | -18 | +2 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3943 | 3528 | 747 | 135 | 21 | 65 | 304 | 943 | 69 | 126 | 34 | 212 | 287 | 317 | 604 | 105 | 268 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -88 | +8 | -4 | +55 | +66 | 3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 123 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 155 | 11 | 21 | 6 | 211 | 286 | 316 | 602 | 105 | 267 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -19 | +2 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 250 PAwOBA .351 → .296 (−54)K% 16.0% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.40% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.015 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.015 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.015 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .351 → .296; ISO .141 → .117; BABIP .329 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 57 PAwOBA .340 → .270 (−70)K% 22.8% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 10.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 2.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 22.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 5.65% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .340 → .270; ISO .133 → .121; BABIP .267 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 196 PAwOBA .262 → .224 (−38)K% 25.5% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.51% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.67% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 21.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.904 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.899 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .262 → .224; ISO .066 → .060; BABIP .284 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 114 PAwOBA .299 → .226 (−73)K% 21.1% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.91% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 19.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.99% | ÷0.901 | ×0.720 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 2.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 2.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 107, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .299 → .226; ISO .066 → .050; BABIP .282 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 142 PAwOBA .344 → .210 (−133)K% 23.2% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.24% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 17.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.991 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.018 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.847 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.62% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 104, K 88, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .210; ISO .122 → .069; BABIP .380 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL BAL Orange · 117 PAwOBA .282 → .204 (−78)K% 22.2% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.95% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 13.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.004 | ×0.600 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 2.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 119, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .282 → .204; ISO .033 → .021; BABIP .254 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).