Tanner Schobel
SS St. Paul Saints| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAMIN | 520 | .211/.303/.338 | 10 | 13 | 41 | — | .164/.237/.268 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA/AMIN | 352 | .265/.362/.421 | 9 | 7 | 75 | — | .216/.293/.334 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AAMIN | 389 | .228/.328/.347 | 7 | 11 | 56 | — | .197/.274/.286 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBMIN | 16 | .210/.284/.317 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBMIN | 70 | .211/.285/.320 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 106 | .211/.285/.320 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 120 | 99 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 242 | 370 | 303 | 673 | 61 | 303 | 19 | 15 | 317 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 67 | 250 | 19 | 6 | 237 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 207 | 177 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 332 | 305 | 637 | 79 | 277 | 19 | 12 | 296 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 347 | 302 | 87 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 64 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 288 | 371 | 493 | 865 | 205 | 319 | 18 | 10 | 376 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 520 | 455 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 59 | 124 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 211 | 303 | 338 | 641 | 127 | 265 | 24 | 11 | 290 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 103 | 91 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 220 | 311 | 341 | 651 | 121 | 321 | 32 | 10 | 299 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 234 | 202 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 292 | 378 | 465 | 844 | 173 | 313 | 14 | 11 | 370 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 467 | 222 | 689 | 111 | 200 | 27 | 40 | 365 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 367 | 318 | 74 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 73 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 233 | 332 | 358 | 690 | 126 | 279 | 20 | 11 | 314 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 158 | 431 | 273 | 36 | 14 | 219 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 120 | 105 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 210 | 303 | 267 | 569 | 57 | 270 | 27 | 10 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 67 | 199 | 25 | 6 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 207 | 183 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 191 | 278 | 246 | 524 | 55 | 249 | 23 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 347 | 311 | 73 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 83 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 235 | 304 | 379 | 684 | 145 | 279 | 24 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 520 | 470 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 157 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 164 | 237 | 268 | 505 | 104 | 220 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 103 | 94 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 181 | 252 | 255 | 508 | 74 | 314 | 39 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 234 | 209 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 43 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 239 | 309 | 378 | 687 | 139 | 262 | 18 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 333 | 182 | 515 | 91 | 158 | 33 | 27 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 367 | 330 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 88 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 200 | 277 | 294 | 571 | 94 | 251 | 24 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 22 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 227 | 150 | 377 | 250 | 45 | 9 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 136 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 192 | 281 | 242 | 523 | 50 | 262 | 26 | 10 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 136 | 114 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 237 | 356 | 298 | 654 | 61 | 295 | 19 | 14 | 308 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 554 | 494 | 109 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 131 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 221 | 296 | 334 | 630 | 113 | 273 | 24 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 554 | 479 | 127 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 61 | 104 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 265 | 356 | 424 | 780 | 159 | 303 | 19 | 11 | 346 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 520 | 470 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 157 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 164 | 237 | 268 | 505 | 104 | 221 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 520 | 455 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 59 | 124 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 211 | 303 | 338 | 641 | 127 | 265 | 24 | 11 | 290 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 352 | 314 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 88 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 296 | 341 | 637 | 121 | 278 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 352 | 302 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 41 | 70 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 265 | 362 | 421 | 783 | 156 | 313 | 20 | 12 | 349 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 350 | 68 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 97 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 194 | 271 | 283 | 554 | 89 | 252 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 389 | 337 | 77 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 81 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 228 | 328 | 347 | 675 | 119 | 279 | 21 | 12 | 309 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 136 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 192 | 281 | 242 | 523 | 50 | 262 | 26 | 10 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 554 | 496 | 109 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 131 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 220 | 296 | 333 | 629 | 113 | 268 | 24 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 520 | 470 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 157 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 164 | 237 | 268 | 505 | 104 | 220 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 352 | 315 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 88 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 219 | 296 | 340 | 636 | 121 | 273 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 349 | 68 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 97 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 195 | 271 | 284 | 555 | 89 | 251 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 520 | 470 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 157 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 164 | 237 | 268 | 505 | 104 | 220 | 30 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 352 | 315 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 88 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 219 | 296 | 340 | 636 | 121 | 273 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 349 | 68 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 97 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 195 | 271 | 284 | 555 | 89 | 251 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 10% | 380 | 342 | 72 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 97 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 210 | 284 | 317 | 601 | 107 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -13 | +1 | +1 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 284 | 317 | 601 | 107 | 271 | 25 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 31% | 225 | 203 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 319 | 604 | 108 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 42% | 253 | 227 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 64 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 319 | 604 | 108 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 46% | 263 | 236 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 318 | 601 | 107 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 48% | 269 | 242 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 282 | 315 | 597 | 105 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 31% | 70 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 285 | 320 | 604 | 108 | 272 | 26 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 42% | 106 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 211 | 285 | 320 | 604 | 108 | 272 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 46% | 121 | 109 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 284 | 318 | 602 | 108 | 272 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 48% | 130 | 117 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 282 | 316 | 598 | 106 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 427 | 384 | 80 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 109 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 208 | 283 | 307 | 590 | 99 | 269 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 64 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +9 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 122 | 26 | 0 | 11 | 55 | 166 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 209 | 284 | 309 | 593 | 101 | 269 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 64 | -23 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3116 | 2795 | 567 | 110 | 13 | 52 | 260 | 805 | 33 | 66 | 18 | 203 | 278 | 307 | 586 | 104 | 263 | 26 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -40 | +1 | -3 | +12 | +25 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 54 | 168 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 204 | 280 | 310 | 590 | 106 | 264 | 26 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -23 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 367 PAwOBA .308 → .256 (−52)K% 19.9% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.89% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.033 | 18.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.033 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .308 → .256; ISO .126 → .097; BABIP .279 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 22 PAwOBA .214 → .167 (−47)K% 36.4% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.36% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 25.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .214 → .167; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 234 PAwOBA .366 → .299 (−67)K% 14.1% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.10% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.68% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .366 → .299; ISO .173 → .141; BABIP .313 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 103 PAwOBA .291 → .239 (−52)K% 32.0% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.04% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.71% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷0.944 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.048 | 22.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.048 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.253 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .291 → .239; ISO .121 → .083; BABIP .321 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 15 PAwOBA .359 → .251 (−108)K% 26.7% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 40.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 25.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 15.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .251; ISO .111 → .099; BABIP .200 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 520 PAwOBA .285 → .229 (−56)K% 23.8% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.85% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.19% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.73% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×1.027 | 15.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.04% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×0.956 | ×1.027 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×0.956 | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.02% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .285 → .229; ISO .127 → .111; BABIP .265 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 347 PAwOBA .372 → .299 (−73)K% 18.4% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.44% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.37% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 22.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.10% | ÷0.994 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.20% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .372 → .299; ISO .205 → .150; BABIP .319 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 207 PAwOBA .291 → .247 (−44)K% 19.3% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.32% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.08% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.38% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .291 → .247; ISO .079 → .065; BABIP .277 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).