Tanner Schobel — OGILVIE

Tanner SchobelSS St. Paul Saints

Age 25 R/R 5'8" / 170 lbs AAA BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .278 / .325

PA320

HR7

SB6

K%28

BB%8

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

50→50

SPD

50→50

EYE

49↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$13M	+$1M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	2 teams	136	119	23	4	0	1	14	37	2	7	1	.193	.289	.252	.541	.059	.268	27	10	.245	46	-8	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2023	22	A+	2 teams	554	495	106	12	5	11	45	134	7	12	2	.214	.289	.325	.614	.111	.266	24	8	.273	67	-20	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.3
2024	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	520	471	74	15	3	10	43	168	1	13	6	.157	.229	.265	.495	.108	.215	32	8	.223	29	-42	+0	+0	+6	+15	-2.2
2025	24	AA	3 teams	352	315	68	14	1	8	28	92	5	7	2	.216	.290	.343	.633	.127	.274	26	8	.279	72	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	48	43	9	2	0	1	5	16	0	1	0	.209	.292	.326	.617	.116	.308	33	10	.264	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB	MIN	272	245	51	10	1	6	23	78	2	5	1	.208	.281	.331	.612	.122	.277	29	8	.275	69	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
TOT	25	MLB	MIN	320	288	60	12	1	7	28	94	2	6	1	.208	.283	.330	.613	.122	.282	29	9	.274	68	-12	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 25%	MIN	362	323	71	13	2	9	33	90	3	6	2	.220	.298	.356	.654	.136	.271	25	9	.290	80	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2028	27	MLB 43%	MIN	386	345	75	14	2	9	35	96	3	7	2	.217	.295	.348	.643	.130	.273	25	9	.292	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2029	28	MLB 52%	MIN	399	356	79	15	2	10	37	99	3	6	2	.222	.301	.360	.660	.138	.274	25	9	.293	82	-8	+0	-1	+4	+11	0.7
2030	29	MLB 63%	MIN	400	357	79	15	2	10	37	100	3	6	1	.221	.300	.359	.658	.137	.274	25	9	.292	82	-8	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.7
2031	30	MLB 73%	MIN	398	355	77	15	2	9	37	101	3	5	1	.217	.296	.346	.643	.130	.273	25	9	.289	79	-9	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.5
2032	31	MLB 81%	MIN	386	344	74	14	2	9	36	100	3	4	1	.215	.295	.346	.641	.131	.272	26	9	.285	77	-10	+0	-3	+4	+11	0.3
2033	32	MLB 88%	MIN	369	329	69	13	1	8	34	97	3	2	0	.210	.290	.328	.618	.119	.271	26	9	.281	73	-11	+0	-4	+4	+10	0.0
2034	33	MLB 93%	MIN	341	305	63	12	1	7	31	92	2	1	0	.207	.284	.321	.605	.115	.270	27	9	.276	69	-12	+0	-4	+4	+10	-0.3
2035	34	MLB	MIN	298	267	54	10	1	6	27	83	2	1	0	.202	.280	.315	.595	.112	.268	28	9	.270	65	-12	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5173	4626	963	176	25	113	460	1367	42	82	21	.208	.286	.330	.616	.122	.267	26	9	.276	70	-178	+8	-20	+55	+147	1.3
/ 162G	—			650	581	121	22	3	14	58	172	5	10	3	.208	.285	.329	.614	.120	.268	26	9	.276	70	-22	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	120	99	24	3	0	1	18	23	2	6	1	.242	.370	.303	.673	.061	.303	19	15	.317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2022	21	ROK	FCL Twins	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	.200	.250	.267	.517	.067	.250	19	6	.237	40	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	22	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	207	177	40	6	1	2	25	40	3	3	1	.226	.332	.305	.637	.079	.277	19	12	.296	84	-4	+0	—	—	+6	0.2
2023	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	347	302	87	10	5	14	36	64	4	9	1	.288	.371	.493	.865	.205	.319	18	10	.376	146	+18	+1	—	—	+10	3.0
2024	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	520	455	96	20	4	10	59	124	1	13	6	.211	.303	.338	.641	.127	.265	24	11	.290	80	-12	+0	—	—	+15	0.3
2025	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	103	91	20	5	0	2	10	33	2	0	1	.220	.311	.341	.651	.121	.321	32	10	.299	87	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	234	202	59	12	1	7	25	33	3	7	1	.292	.378	.465	.844	.173	.313	14	11	.370	141	+11	+1	—	—	+7	1.9
2025	24	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	15	9	1	1	0	0	6	4	0	0	0	.111	.467	.222	.689	.111	.200	27	40	.365	137	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Schobel (OGILVIE)	25	60	50	50	50	.206/.278/.325	.120	.274	7	5	28%	8%	68	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Joshua Rodriguez 2010 · AA	25	47→55	43→50	49→50	48	.228/.294/.342	.114	.295	10	11	25%	9%	78	+0.2	.240/.299/.358	.118	.309	12	8	25%	8%	85	+0.7	.235/.301/.356	.121	.306	11	7	25%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Colton Welker 2023 · MLB	25	44→54	47→45	48→45	45	.222/.288/.354	.132	.286	15	7	27%	8%	79	+0.3	.222/.311/.315	.093	.298	8	9	26%	10%	79	+0.3	.202/.322/.231	.029	.286	0	6	25%	13%	62	-0.3
✕Andre Lipcius 2023 · AAA	25	46→50	46→50	48→45	51	.229/.303/.360	.131	.280	13	9	23%	9%	87	+0.8	.227/.294/.363	.136	.282	16	7	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.216/.280/.352	.136	.265	17	5	25%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Chris Nelson 2011 · MLB	25	46→56	45→50	49→50	44	.230/.282/.352	.122	.280	13	11	23%	6%	76	+0.0	.252/.294/.384	.132	.309	13	8	22%	5%	89	+0.9	.256/.298/.386	.130	.320	12	6	23%	5%	86	+0.6
✕Jake Lemmerman 2014 · AA	25	44→50	42→45	51→45	46	.213/.290/.322	.110	.290	10	10	28%	8%	72	-0.2	.194/.266/.303	.109	.276	10	9	31%	8%	57	-1.2	.146/.218/.245	.099	.206	10	4	33%	8%	20	-1.6
✕Tommy Field 2012 · MLB	25	48→50	45	48→45	44	.234/.300/.356	.123	.302	13	9	26%	7%	85	+0.7	.224/.287/.344	.120	.286	11	7	25%	7%	76	+0.1	.222/.292/.351	.128	.278	13	7	24%	7%	78	+0.2
✕Andy Burns 2016 · AAA	25	51→58	43→50	46→55	44	.247/.290/.363	.116	.295	10	13	20%	5%	82	+0.5	.221/.263/.319	.098	.274	8	12	22%	5%	59	-1.1	.200/.281/.330	.130	.257	15	10	27%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2016 · AA	25	49→53	42→45	47→45	49	.234/.300/.339	.105	.297	9	6	24%	8%	79	+0.3	.225/.279/.312	.087	.294	7	7	25%	6%	64	-0.8	.228/.280/.339	.111	.286	12	6	24%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Owen Miller 2022 · MLB	25	46→52	44→45	45→50	42	.229/.278/.345	.115	.291	12	5	25%	6%	72	-0.2	.242/.295/.361	.119	.300	11	9	22%	6%	83	+0.6	.245/.300/.355	.110	.300	9	11	21%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Ryan McKenna 2022 · MLB	25	42→52	47→50	50→55	46	.209/.286/.342	.133	.292	14	15	32%	9%	76	+0.0	.223/.293/.364	.141	.318	16	14	33%	8%	84	+0.6	.212/.276/.344	.133	.290	15	20	31%	7%	70	-0.1
✕Francisco Urbaez 2023 · AAA	25	50→57	41→45	47→45	48	.239/.302/.343	.103	.295	8	6	21%	7%	82	+0.5	.239/.300/.349	.110	.293	9	7	21%	7%	82	+0.5	.246/.307/.361	.115	.292	9	7	18%	7%	87	+0.5
✕Braden Bishop 2020 · MLB	26	48→57	42→50	47→50	45	.234/.293/.340	.106	.298	9	9	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.228/.284/.357	.129	.294	13	12	26%	6%	78	+0.2	.234/.290/.371	.137	.296	14	18	25%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Matt Vierling 2022 · MLB	25	45→55	43→50	53→50	43	.222/.279/.333	.111	.287	11	15	26%	6%	70	-0.3	.249/.307/.377	.128	.304	13	12	21%	7%	92	+1.2	.252/.313/.388	.135	.304	13	10	21%	7%	95	+1.2
✕Andruw Monasterio 2022 · AAA	25	46→52	42→45	45→55	42	.222/.281/.326	.104	.316	9	9	31%	7%	69	-0.4	.234/.307/.345	.111	.312	10	16	26%	9%	85	+0.7	.238/.318/.339	.101	.307	9	23	23%	9%	85	+0.4
✕TJ Hopkins 2022 · AA	25	48→55	45→50	56→45	41	.229/.287/.362	.133	.319	11	8	30%	7%	80	+0.4	.229/.291/.379	.150	.323	17	7	33%	7%	87	+0.8	.231/.296/.384	.153	.322	19	6	33%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Garrett Weber 2014 · AA	25	49→56	44→45	47→40	41	.243/.284/.357	.114	.297	11	5	22%	4%	78	+0.2	.248/.294/.353	.105	.321	9	3	24%	5%	80	+0.4	.248/.297/.343	.095	.326	8	1	25%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Joey Ortiz 2022 · AA	24	45→55	44→50	53→50	44	.219/.285/.340	.121	.291	11	11	28%	7%	74	-0.1	.246/.301/.390	.144	.301	13	10	22%	7%	93	+1.3	.250/.313/.398	.148	.304	13	11	21%	7%	97	+1.3
✕Mitch Nay 2019 · AA	25	43→53	45→50	47→30	43	.217/.273/.338	.120	.276	13	4	26%	6%	69	-0.4	.223/.280/.378	.155	.281	18	3	27%	7%	82	+0.5	.196/.260/.363	.167	.252	22	1	31%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Mark Mathias 2020 · AAA	25	45→46	45→50	53→50	46	.220/.290/.350	.130	.280	12	13	25%	8%	79	+0.3	.239/.302/.384	.145	.307	15	16	26%	7%	93	+1.3	.255/.341/.389	.134	.350	16	20	29%	10%	109	+1.2
✕Trey Harris 2021 · AA	25	50→51	45	47→45	43	.244/.299/.374	.130	.297	12	8	22%	5%	89	+0.9	.226/.279/.332	.106	.290	11	7	25%	5%	69	-0.4	.219/.274/.308	.089	.288	9	7	26%	5%	58	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)