Hunter Jones
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | AACWS | 464 | .222/.303/.351 | 7 | 11 | 50 | — | .190/.253/.296 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 438 | .301/.376/.407 | 5 | 13 | 91 | — | .273/.328/.362 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAWSH | 174 | .168/.254/.252 | 3 | 4 | 6 | — | .137/.197/.193 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 48 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 190 | 482 | 276 | 27 | 10 | 239 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 86 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 257 | 337 | 311 | 648 | 54 | 284 | 10 | 10 | 290 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 180 | 156 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 45 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 205 | 307 | 346 | 653 | 141 | 252 | 25 | 9 | 299 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 124 | 111 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 351 | 415 | 577 | 991 | 225 | 417 | 19 | 10 | 429 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 197 | 166 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 42 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 205 | 312 | 229 | 541 | 24 | 268 | 21 | 11 | 257 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 226 | 294 | 290 | 584 | 65 | 280 | 18 | 9 | 269 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 153 | 133 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 304 | 338 | 642 | 113 | 267 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 416 | 364 | 104 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 70 | 7 | 31 | 10 | 286 | 363 | 401 | 764 | 115 | 338 | 17 | 9 | 339 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 464 | 410 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 86 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 222 | 303 | 351 | 655 | 129 | 263 | 19 | 8 | 294 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 144 | 131 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 305 | 359 | 466 | 825 | 160 | 369 | 19 | 7 | 360 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 294 | 255 | 76 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 46 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 298 | 385 | 376 | 761 | 78 | 353 | 16 | 11 | 346 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 174 | 155 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 168 | 254 | 252 | 506 | 84 | 221 | 28 | 8 | 237 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 48 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 136 | 345 | 228 | 40 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 86 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 277 | 273 | 550 | 52 | 230 | 15 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 180 | 161 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 168 | 251 | 280 | 531 | 112 | 218 | 33 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 124 | 116 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 259 | 301 | 414 | 715 | 155 | 330 | 28 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 197 | 174 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 59 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 167 | 245 | 184 | 429 | 17 | 238 | 30 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 34 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 156 | 206 | 219 | 425 | 62 | 215 | 26 | 6 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 153 | 137 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 270 | 321 | 591 | 109 | 251 | 24 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 416 | 379 | 91 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 106 | 7 | 31 | 10 | 240 | 294 | 327 | 621 | 87 | 307 | 25 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 464 | 422 | 80 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 107 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 190 | 253 | 296 | 549 | 107 | 235 | 23 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 144 | 134 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 310 | 396 | 705 | 127 | 338 | 22 | 5 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 294 | 266 | 73 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 57 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 274 | 337 | 346 | 683 | 71 | 329 | 19 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 174 | 161 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 137 | 197 | 193 | 389 | 56 | 193 | 34 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 48 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 136 | 345 | 240 | 40 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 48 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 190 | 482 | 276 | 27 | 10 | 239 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 86 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 277 | 273 | 550 | 52 | 258 | 15 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 86 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 257 | 337 | 311 | 648 | 54 | 284 | 10 | 10 | 290 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 277 | 56 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 94 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 202 | 268 | 332 | 600 | 130 | 275 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 304 | 267 | 71 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 69 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 266 | 351 | 442 | 793 | 176 | 325 | 23 | 9 | 352 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 206 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 170 | 243 | 194 | 438 | 24 | 246 | 29 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 231 | 197 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 208 | 310 | 239 | 548 | 30 | 270 | 21 | 10 | 259 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 516 | 120 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 142 | 11 | 33 | 10 | 233 | 288 | 326 | 613 | 93 | 304 | 25 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 569 | 497 | 134 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 48 | 99 | 11 | 33 | 10 | 270 | 347 | 384 | 731 | 115 | 319 | 17 | 8 | 324 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 464 | 422 | 80 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 107 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 190 | 253 | 296 | 549 | 107 | 238 | 23 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 464 | 410 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 86 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 222 | 303 | 351 | 655 | 129 | 263 | 19 | 8 | 294 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 400 | 108 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 89 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 270 | 326 | 360 | 686 | 90 | 335 | 20 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 438 | 386 | 116 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 74 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 301 | 376 | 407 | 783 | 106 | 358 | 17 | 9 | 350 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 174 | 161 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 137 | 197 | 193 | 389 | 56 | 200 | 34 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 174 | 155 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 168 | 254 | 252 | 506 | 84 | 221 | 28 | 8 | 237 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 48 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 136 | 345 | 228 | 40 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 86 | 80 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 277 | 263 | 540 | 50 | 230 | 15 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 276 | 56 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 94 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 203 | 268 | 333 | 602 | 130 | 264 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 209 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 167 | 243 | 191 | 435 | 24 | 235 | 29 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 524 | 120 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 142 | 11 | 33 | 10 | 229 | 288 | 321 | 608 | 92 | 292 | 25 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 464 | 425 | 80 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 107 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 188 | 253 | 294 | 547 | 106 | 235 | 23 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 402 | 108 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 89 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 269 | 326 | 358 | 684 | 90 | 332 | 20 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 174 | 160 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 138 | 197 | 194 | 390 | 56 | 193 | 34 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2314 | 2103 | 444 | 66 | 21 | 25 | 130 | 591 | 46 | 113 | 29 | 211 | 272 | 298 | 570 | 87 | 278 | 26 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -123 | +11 | +0 | +8 | +50 | -5.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 125 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 166 | 13 | 32 | 8 | 212 | 273 | 299 | 573 | 88 | 278 | 26 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -34 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 174 PAwOBA .230 → .177 (−53)K% 28.2% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.16% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.47% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.92% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 16.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.77% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.83% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .230 → .177; ISO .084 → .058; BABIP .221 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 294 PAwOBA .337 → .296 (−41)K% 15.6% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.65% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.10% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×0.978 | 29.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.39% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×0.978 | 2.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×0.978 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .337 → .296; ISO .078 → .068; BABIP .353 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 144 PAwOBA .355 → .316 (−39)K% 19.4% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷1.044 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.24% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×1.003 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.003 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.91% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.003 | 3.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.205 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.36% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .355 → .316; ISO .160 → .146; BABIP .369 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABirmingham Barons · 464 PAwOBA .288 → .242 (−46)K% 18.5% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.53% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.59% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 15.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.79% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.086 | ×0.880 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.16% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.91% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .288 → .242; ISO .129 → .112; BABIP .263 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 416 PAwOBA .331 → .270 (−61)K% 16.8% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.83% | ÷0.938 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.41% | ÷0.996 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.87% | ÷0.994 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 25.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.42% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | ×1.012 | ×0.978 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.70% | ÷1.098 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.36% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 103, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .331 → .270; ISO .115 → .090; BABIP .338 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AABirmingham Barons · 153 PAwOBA .282 → .255 (−28)K% 19.0% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.95% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷0.990 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 17.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.73% | ÷0.897 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 6.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.918 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 79, 3B 130, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .282 → .255; ISO .113 → .107; BABIP .267 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AKannapolis Intimidators · 197 PAwOBA .255 → .202 (−53)K% 21.3% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.32% | ÷0.963 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.66% | ÷1.029 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.54% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.980 | 21.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.940 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.980 | 2.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.914 | ×0.940 | ×0.999 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.848 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 83, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .255 → .202; ISO .024 → .020; BABIP .268 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKACL White Sox · 34 PAwOBA .262 → .181 (−82)K% 17.6% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 18.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .181; ISO .065 → .042; BABIP .280 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).