Jack Payton — OGILVIE

Jack PaytonC Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 209 lbs AA HR -8%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION222 act + 148 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .286 / .341

PA148

HR3

K%28

BB%7

BABIP297

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
Totals		$7M		$25M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	70	64	13	1	0	1	3	22	3	2	0	203	271	266	537	62	293	31	4	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	70	63	17	2	0	1	4	15	3	2	0	270	343	349	692	79	340	21	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	3 teams	—	273	232	47	13	1	3	27	81	12	2	0	203	317	306	623	103	293	30	10	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	3 teams	—	273	221	56	17	1	3	38	55	12	2	0	253	391	380	771	127	321	20	14	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	282	249	49	9	2	8	23	89	5	4	1	197	278	345	623	149	261	32	8	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	282	238	60	13	2	9	34	72	5	4	1	252	357	437	794	185	315	26	12	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	SF	—	222	206	49	8	1	3	11	63	3	6	2	238	286	330	616	92	324	28	5	271	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
YTD	24	AA	SF	—	222	201	56	10	1	4	16	48	3	6	2	279	341	398	739	119	344	22	7	330	111	+3	+0	+0	+4	+6	1.4
ROS	24	AA	SF	2%	148	135	30	5	1	3	10	42	2	3	1	222	286	341	626	119	294	28	7	280	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
ROS	24	MLB	SF	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						289	33	0	263	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	24	AA	SF	—	225	209	49	8	1	3	11	64	3	6	2	234	283	325	608	91	319	28	5	271	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
TOT	24	AA	SF	—	370	341	79	13	2	6	21	105	5	9	3	232	286	334	620	103	313	28	6	274	68	-13	+1	+0	+7	+10	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	SF	39%	332	300	67	12	2	7	24	91	5	5	1	223	292	347	638	123	293	27	7	289	80	-8	+1	+0	+6	+9	0.8
2028	26	MLB	SF	56%	380	343	78	14	2	9	28	103	6	6	2	227	297	359	656	131	294	27	7	295	84	-7	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.1
2029	27	MLB	SF	62%	399	360	82	15	2	10	30	107	6	6	2	228	298	364	662	136	293	27	8	297	85	-7	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.2
2030	28	MLB	SF	65%	409	368	83	15	2	10	32	110	6	6	2	226	298	359	657	133	293	27	8	297	85	-7	+0	-1	+7	+12	1.2
2031	29	MLB	SF	64%	407	366	83	15	2	10	32	110	6	6	2	227	300	361	660	134	292	27	8	295	84	-8	+0	-1	+7	+12	1.0
2032	30	MLB	SF	64%	405	365	82	15	2	10	31	111	6	6	2	225	296	359	655	134	291	27	8	292	81	-8	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.9
2033	31	MLB	SF	64%	380	343	75	14	1	9	29	105	5	5	1	219	289	344	633	125	288	28	8	288	78	-9	+1	-3	+7	+11	0.6
2034	32	MLB	SF	64%	352	317	68	12	1	8	27	99	5	4	1	215	287	334	621	120	285	28	8	282	74	-10	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.3
2035	33	MLB	SF	64%	315	284	60	10	1	7	24	90	4	4	1	211	282	327	610	116	281	29	8	275	69	-11	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.0
2036	34	MLB	SF	60%	267	241	49	8	1	5	20	78	4	3	1	203	275	307	583	104	275	29	7	267	62	-11	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.4
2027	25	MLB	SF	39%	128	116	26	5	1	3	9	35	2	2	1	224	291	362	653	138	288	27	7	273	67	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2028	26	MLB	SF	56%	212	191	43	8	1	5	16	57	3	3	1	225	295	356	651	131	288	27	8	279	72	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2029	27	MLB	SF	62%	246	221	49	9	1	6	19	66	4	4	1	222	295	353	648	131	288	27	8	281	73	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2030	28	MLB	SF	65%	264	238	53	10	1	6	20	71	4	4	1	223	294	349	643	126	288	27	8	280	73	-8	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.4
2031	29	MLB	SF	64%	262	236	52	10	1	6	20	71	4	4	1	220	292	347	640	127	287	27	8	279	71	-8	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.3
2032	30	MLB	SF	64%	261	235	51	9	1	6	20	71	4	4	1	217	290	340	630	123	285	27	8	276	69	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2033	31	MLB	SF	64%	245	220	48	9	1	5	19	68	4	3	1	218	292	336	629	118	283	28	8	272	66	-9	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.0
2034	32	MLB	SF	64%	226	204	44	8	1	5	17	63	3	3	1	216	286	338	624	123	280	28	8	267	62	-10	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.1
2035	33	MLB	SF	64%	203	182	38	7	1	4	16	58	3	2	1	209	284	324	608	115	276	29	8	261	58	-10	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.3
2036	34	MLB	SF	60%	160	145	29	5	1	3	12	47	2	2	0	200	270	310	581	110	270	29	8	252	51	-9	+0	-3	+3	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2210	1991	433	80	10	49	168	608	33	31	9	217	289	342	631	124	286	28	8	273	67	-82	+3	-12	+39	+63	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	127	24	3	14	49	179	10	9	3	217	288	340	628	123	285	28	8	273	67	-24	+1	-4	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	4419	3967	866	158	20	100	340	1238	75	62	17	218	292	344	636	126	288	28	8	285	77	-117	+6	-20	+79	+125	7.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	127	23	3	15	50	182	11	9	3	217	291	344	636	127	286	28	8	285	77	-17	+1	-3	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	San Jose Giants	—	41	38	7	0	0	1	2	8	1	1	0	184	244	263	507	79	207	20	5	235	38	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	21	ROK	ACL Giants Orange	—	29	25	10	2	0	0	2	7	2	1	0	400	483	480	963	80	556	24	7	437	193	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	72	63	13	3	0	1	5	15	3	0	0	206	296	302	597	95	250	21	7	275	68	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	157	122	30	9	1	2	27	30	7	0	0	246	410	385	796	139	308	19	17	367	139	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.2
2024	22	ROK	ACL Giants	—	44	36	13	5	0	0	6	10	2	2	0	361	477	500	977	139	500	23	14	439	194	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	282	238	60	13	2	9	34	72	5	4	1	252	357	437	794	185	315	26	12	350	126	+8	+0	—	—	+8	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,212	51	31	222	291	350	+40	+24	4.8	4.6
	/162	664	15	9	222	291	350	+11.9	+7.2	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jack Payton (OGILVIE)	24	40	50	45	50	232/286/334	103	313	6	9	28%	6%	68	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→45	47→50	49→50	43	195/276/331	137	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.4	215/289/349	134	277	13	9	26%	7%	79	+0.3	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Brian O'Keefe 2017 · A	24	44→45	46→55	45→40	50	218/297/350	132	277	12	3	25%	9%	82	+0.5	215/282/357	142	271	15	4	26%	8%	78	+0.2	218/284/384	166	278	22	2	29%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Dusty Brown 2006 · A	24	43	45	44→30	45	215/278/337	122	282	13	5	28%	8%	71	-0.3	215/271/335	120	284	12	3	28%	7%	67	-0.5	228/291/341	113	307	12	0	28%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	43	44→45	48→50	43	215/283/333	118	286	12	11	28%	7%	72	-0.2	206/263/326	120	268	13	7	28%	5%	62	-0.9	190/242/307	117	240	15	5	27%	4%	45	-1.1
✕John Hester 2008 · A	24	42	46→55	47→50	40	214/264/344	130	283	14	7	29%	6%	66	-0.6	237/278/387	150	311	14	9	27%	5%	83	+0.6	247/290/411	163	320	15	10	27%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→39	47→50	43→30	48	212/291/346	133	289	14	4	30%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/349	145	281	18	3	32%	10%	79	+0.3	185/276/320	135	253	18	0	33%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Andre Lipcius 2022 · AA	24	43→49	45→50	48→45	46	216/277/342	126	275	12	7	26%	8%	71	-0.3	233/304/373	140	288	16	8	23%	9%	91	+1.1	234/306/379	145	288	18	7	24%	9%	90	+1.0
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→42	44→50	50→40	49	214/303/331	117	278	11	7	26%	9%	81	+0.4	223/308/361	138	300	15	5	29%	8%	91	+1.1	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Jaxx Groshans 2022 · A	24	46	49→50	46→30	45	231/293/374	144	302	17	4	29%	8%	86	+0.8	201/269/326	125	286	13	5	32%	8%	64	-0.8	127/211/244	116	177	13	0	35%	9%	17	-1.3
●Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41→38	45→60	46→50	44	204/280/325	122	284	12	13	31%	8%	69	-0.4	220/279/399	179	271	22	14	27%	6%	88	+0.9	220/277/428	209	258	27	17	27%	5%	92	+0.8
✕Alsander Womack 2023 · A	24	48→43	43→40	44→45	47	238/297/340	103	293	12	7	23%	7%	79	+0.3	217/281/301	84	281	9	9	24%	7%	63	-0.9	205/273/275	71	264	8	8	24%	7%	50	-0.9
✕Clay Harris 2007 · A	24	42→45	44→45	43→30	47	209/283/327	118	270	11	2	26%	8%	71	-0.3	232/305/365	133	277	14	2	21%	8%	89	+1.0	238/316/377	139	274	16	0	19%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/348	122	288	12	8	26%	6%	74	-0.1	217/284/369	152	276	20	4	28%	8%	82	+0.5	213/284/361	148	267	20	2	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Wade Wass 2016 · A	24	43	46→50	45	44	209/291/344	134	304	13	3	33%	8%	79	+0.3	207/286/355	148	323	18	9	39%	8%	79	+0.3	199/282/359	159	315	21	11	41%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Renae Martinez 2018 · A	24	45→31	44→45	40	44	225/279/335	110	276	12	5	23%	6%	70	-0.3	213/274/317	104	285	10	3	27%	7%	63	-0.8	189/257/292	103	263	11	2	31%	7%	48	-1.0
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	39→38	49→50	47→45	50	199/291/349	150	269	16	9	31%	11%	80	+0.4	196/288/337	141	280	15	7	33%	10%	76	+0.1	180/281/315	135	241	16	9	31%	11%	66	-0.5
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→46	49→55	44→45	46	222/293/372	149	287	17	7	28%	8%	86	+0.8	216/294/380	164	285	19	5	30%	8%	89	+1.0	213/296/385	172	282	20	4	30%	9%	89	+0.8
✕Harrison Spohn 2023 · A	24	45	46→50	44→45	48	222/300/352	130	309	14	7	31%	10%	84	+0.6	189/254/296	107	289	12	7	36%	8%	50	-1.8	164/230/255	91	262	10	7	39%	8%	27	-1.7
✕Andrew Susac 2014 · AA	24	41→40	49→50	46→30	45	210/282/354	145	281	17	3	31%	8%	77	+0.1	219/288/363	144	292	16	3	29%	8%	82	+0.5	209/278/347	138	275	16	0	29%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Jake Rogers 2019 · AA	24	37→40	46→60	48→45	40	191/253/320	128	266	14	9	33%	7%	56	-1.3	208/281/378	170	286	21	5	33%	8%	83	+0.6	213/288/429	216	271	31	1	33%	8%	98	+0.8