Pedro Pagés — OGILVIE

Pedro PagésC St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 1.965 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION160 act + 228 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 6868vR 69

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .265 / .349

PA228

HR6

K%26

BB%5

BABIP270

ISO132

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

609.9%

xwOBA

160.268

POWER45

Barrel%

356.2

Avg EV

3788.1

Bat Spd

6272.6

EYE35

Chase%

5530.7%

SPEED35

Sprint

1025.5

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 649 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

195

454

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

282

290

—

ISO

111

151

▶▶R

BABIP

336

274

◀◀L

28.7%

25.6%

▶R

BB%

4.6%

5.3%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.8M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	344	310	63	10	1	6	25	111	7	1	2	203	278	300	578	97	292	32	7	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	344	301	75	12	1	9	34	82	7	1	2	249	339	385	725	136	311	24	10	327	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	3 teams	—	385	349	64	15	0	9	27	145	1	1	0	183	244	304	548	120	271	38	7	242	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	3 teams	—	385	334	78	19	0	11	42	111	1	1	0	234	321	389	710	156	305	29	11	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	497	444	99	18	2	13	39	127	8	3	0	223	297	360	658	137	277	26	8	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	497	424	113	23	2	16	59	96	8	3	0	267	367	443	810	177	305	19	12	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	242	222	52	5	2	8	16	65	1	2	0	234	289	383	672	149	291	27	7	292	82	-5	+0	+2	+4	+7	0.9
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	242	220	52	5	2	8	18	63	1	2	0	236	297	386	683	150	291	26	7	302	89	-3	+0	+2	+4	+7	1.1
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	389	361	83	15	0	11	19	107	3	0	0	230	274	363	637	133	293	28	5	276	70	-13	+0	+16	+7	+11	2.1
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	389	361	83	15	0	11	19	107	3	0	0	230	274	363	637	133	293	28	5	281	73	-12	+0	+16	+7	+11	2.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	STL	—	160	146	31	6	0	4	6	41	2	2	0	212	253	336	589	123	262	26	4	252	51	-9	+0	+2	+3	+5	0.1
YTD	27	MLB	STL	—	160	146	31	6	0	4	6	41	2	2	0	212	253	336	589	123	262	26	4	254	53	-9	+0	+2	+3	+5	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	228	212	46	8	1	6	12	59	2	2	0	217	265	349	615	132	266	26	5	275	68	-8	+0	+3	+4	+6	0.6
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	228	212	46	8	1	6	12	59	2	2	0	217	265	349	615	132	266	26	5	268	63	-10	+0	+3	+4	+6	0.4
FULL	27	MLB	STL	—	388	358	77	14	1	10	18	100	4	4	0	215	261	344	604	128	267	26	5	261	58	-18	+1	+5	+7	+11	0.5
TOT	27	MLB	STL	—	388	358	77	14	1	10	18	100	4	4	0	215	261	344	604	128	267	26	5	265	61	-17	+1	+5	+7	+11	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	STL	92%	398	369	80	14	1	11	22	103	4	3	1	217	268	350	618	133	266	26	6	274	68	-15	+0	+4	+7	+11	0.8
2028	29	MLB	STL	92%	394	365	79	14	1	11	22	103	4	3	1	216	269	351	619	134	265	26	6	272	66	-15	+0	+3	+7	+11	0.7
2027	28	MLB	STL	92%	366	340	73	13	1	10	20	95	3	3	1	215	264	347	612	132	266	26	5	267	62	-16	+0	+4	+7	+10	0.5
2028	29	MLB	STL	92%	362	336	73	13	1	10	20	94	3	3	0	217	267	351	619	134	265	26	6	265	61	-16	+1	+3	+6	+10	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1563	1451	323	52	5	44	84	413	11	10	1	223	270	356	627	134	278	26	5	273	67	-58	+2	+27	+28	+44	4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	134	22	2	18	35	172	5	4	0	222	271	355	625	133	278	26	5	273	67	-24	+1	+11	+12	+18	1.9
Career	—			—	2877	2632	566	99	8	75	182	820	30	15	4	215	274	344	618	129	279	29	6	272	66	-109	+1	+28	+51	+82	5.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	128	22	2	17	41	185	7	3	1	215	274	345	619	129	278	28	6	272	66	-25	+0	+6	+12	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	344	301	75	12	1	9	34	82	7	1	2	249	339	385	725	136	311	24	10	327	109	+3	-1	—	—	+10	1.3
2022	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	170	153	34	8	0	4	14	46	0	0	0	222	287	353	640	131	283	27	8	284	75	-5	+0	—	—	+5	0.0
2022	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	167	138	32	7	0	6	24	56	1	1	0	232	350	413	763	181	325	34	14	336	115	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2022	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	48	43	12	4	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	279	340	442	782	163	324	19	8	340	119	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	497	424	113	23	2	16	59	96	8	3	0	267	367	443	810	177	305	19	12	359	133	+18	+1	—	—	+14	3.4
2024	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	218	202	48	3	2	7	13	58	0	2	0	238	284	376	660	139	295	27	6	290	80	-5	+0	+2	+4	+6	0.8
2024	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	24	18	4	2	0	1	5	5	1	0	0	222	417	500	917	278	250	21	21	407	170	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	389	361	83	15	0	11	19	107	3	0	0	230	274	363	637	133	293	28	5	281	73	-12	+0	+16	+7	+11	2.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	607	563	131	18	2	18	32	165	3	2	0	233	278	368	645	135	294	27	5	284	76	-17	+0	+18	+11	+17	3.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	10	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
	/162	664	17	0	221	273	354	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,884	53	12	222	267	355	+34	+41	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	19	4	222	267	355	+11.9	+14.3	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pedro Pagés (OGILVIE)	27	40	45	35	35	215/261/344	128	267	10	4	26%	5%	61	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alan Trejo 2023 · MLB	27	40→42	50	40→45	37	212/251/371	159	265	18	5	28%	4%	68	-0.5	215/267/347	132	275	14	9	26%	6%	68	-0.5	211/267/341	130	267	14	7	26%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Alberto Concepcion 2008 · AAA	27	40	45	39→30	40	206/264/329	124	272	13	3	29%	6%	63	-0.9	226/290/352	126	285	13	6	25%	6%	80	+0.4	235/305/345	109	291	11	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Michael Pérez 2020 · MLB	27	44	46→50	36→40	46	221/282/351	130	280	15	3	26%	8%	76	+0.0	193/262/328	135	247	16	4	28%	8%	62	-0.9	167/245/284	117	216	16	1	31%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2008 · AAA	26	41	46→50	39→40	41	210/261/338	128	269	15	5	28%	6%	64	-0.8	218/273/337	119	273	12	4	24%	6%	69	-0.4	231/290/376	145	269	19	2	22%	6%	82	+0.2
✕Brad Davis 2010 · AAA	27	39	46→50	42→45	44	201/260/336	135	254	13	3	26%	7%	63	-0.9	220/274/344	124	286	12	5	26%	6%	70	-0.3	217/271/330	113	284	10	4	26%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Luis Exposito 2014 · MLB	27	44→49	44→50	40→30	42	219/260/337	117	274	12	3	25%	5%	63	-0.9	216/275/327	111	299	10	6	29%	7%	66	-0.6	190/268/275	86	279	6	0	32%	8%	47	-0.6
✕Chadwick Tromp 2023 · MLB	28	39	51→50	42→40	38	211/243/359	148	254	20	4	27%	4%	61	-1.0	217/272/349	132	274	15	3	26%	7%	71	-0.3	206/267/321	115	263	13	1	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Jett Bandy 2016 · AAA	26	45	48→50	40→45	40	227/285/364	137	271	16	3	23%	4%	81	+0.4	223/282/361	138	266	17	5	23%	5%	79	+0.3	213/276/348	135	252	17	4	22%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Jackson Williams 2013 · AAA	27	38	47→45	40	38	200/245/329	129	255	16	3	29%	5%	55	-1.4	203/257/307	104	261	10	4	25%	6%	53	-1.5	193/256/268	75	250	6	2	24%	7%	41	-1.2
✕Eli Whiteside 2008 · AAA	28	42	46→50	38→40	36	216/250/345	129	267	14	4	25%	3%	61	-1.0	214/255/337	123	274	13	5	26%	4%	60	-1.0	211/264/345	135	273	14	3	28%	5%	62	-0.3
✕Yu Chang 2023 · MLB	27	44→46	49→50	42→45	43	225/290/378	153	296	17	5	29%	7%	87	+0.8	223/283/378	155	287	20	12	29%	7%	84	+0.6	188/224/339	151	215	26	18	28%	3%	46	-0.7
✕Jeff Mathis 2010 · MLB	27	41→46	45→50	40→45	47	207/277/322	116	262	13	5	26%	8%	67	-0.5	199/248/310	111	260	12	6	28%	6%	50	-1.7	211/261/316	106	287	8	1	28%	6%	54	-0.4
●Luke Montz 2010 · MLB	27	38→46	47→55	37→40	47	200/264/334	134	246	16	3	26%	8%	64	-0.8	210/280/374	164	256	21	5	26%	8%	82	+0.5	211/285/427	216	246	30	4	28%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Adam Abraham 2014 · AAA	27	44→47	45→50	40	43	218/279/346	128	289	13	4	28%	7%	73	-0.1	222/278/332	110	278	11	7	23%	7%	69	-0.4	210/268/307	97	242	9	2	17%	7%	59	-0.3
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	41	45→50	44→40	44	208/276/324	116	260	13	6	25%	7%	67	-0.5	222/290/349	127	278	15	6	25%	7%	79	+0.3	211/275/318	107	244	12	3	18%	6%	62	-0.3
✕Francisco Peña 2017 · MLB	27	40→46	49→55	42→40	41	209/244/351	142	233	18	4	20%	4%	59	-1.1	227/261/369	142	268	17	6	22%	4%	72	-0.2	227/259/379	152	265	20	3	23%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Lucas May 2012 · MLB	27	40→43	47→55	43→45	40	206/262/338	132	278	15	6	31%	6%	64	-0.8	194/231/301	107	272	10	6	32%	4%	40	-2.4	181/208/272	91	259	7	3	33%	3%	21	-1.5
✕Jesus Flores 2013 · MLB	28	42→38	45→50	41→30	40	211/246/332	120	259	13	4	24%	4%	55	-1.4	189/227/282	93	246	9	4	27%	4%	33	-2.9	151/181/214	62	202	7	0	29%	3%	-8	-2.0
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2012 · AAA	28	45	44→45	38→40	44	222/276/338	117	265	11	4	21%	6%	69	-0.4	209/253/314	105	253	9	4	21%	5%	54	-1.4	216/262/322	106	251	11	2	18%	5%	57	-0.4
✕Tres Barrera 2023 · MLB	28	44→42	44→45	40	47	218/286/328	110	273	12	3	24%	8%	72	-0.2	206/270/321	115	260	14	5	25%	7%	63	-0.8	179/247/271	92	226	13	2	26%	7%	38	-1.1