Jhostynxon Garcia

CF Indianapolis Indians

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 224 lbs AAA HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.203 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AA/A+/A2 orgs	459	.286/.356/.536	23	17	85	—	.223/.279/.418
2025	22	AAA/AABOS	489	.267/.343/.470	21	7	80	—	.225/.283/.374
2026	23	AAA/APIT	312	.279/.344/.464	13	5	89	—	.251/.302/.387
2026	23	MLBPIT	50	.167/.200/.188	0	0	8	-0.3
2027PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBPIT	70	.229/.280/.364	2	1	82	0.1
2028PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBPIT	164	.231/.284/.374	5	2	86	0.2
2029PROJ54% MLB	26	MLBPIT	188	.233/.287/.379	6	2	89	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.203First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV95

Speed51

K%47

BB%27

Whiff%22

Z-Con%17

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%

CompsRodolfo Castro (age 24) · Damiano Palmegiani (age 24) · Joey Bart (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .280 / .364

PA70

HR2

K%27

BB%6

BABIP293

ISO123

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.179

POWER

Barrel%

102.6

Avg EV

1071.1

Bat Spd

8475.0

SPEED

Sprint

5527.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	172	135	38	7	4	4	33	32	1	5	4	281	421	481	903	200	340	19	19	397	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	125	101	19	5	2	3	18	38	4	4	2	188	333	366	700	178	258	30	14	316	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	310	265	61	14	6	4	37	79	4	9	2	230	333	374	707	143	306	25	12	317	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	126	114	30	4	2	2	6	24	4	2	4	263	320	386	706	123	315	19	5	314	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	229	209	65	14	2	16	12	50	8	1	3	311	371	627	998	316	343	22	5	431	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Salem Red Sox	—	104	89	23	6	1	5	15	25	0	14	0	258	365	517	882	258	305	24	14	386	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	351	317	86	12	3	18	27	102	4	3	0	271	336	498	835	227	342	29	8	363	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	138	117	30	5	1	3	18	29	1	4	1	256	360	393	753	137	310	21	13	338	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	50	48	8	1	0	0	1	16	1	0	0	167	200	188	388	21	250	32	2	181	8	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
2026	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	287	258	70	12	0	10	23	68	3	5	1	271	338	434	772	163	328	24	8	341	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	25	22	8	1	0	3	2	5	0	0	0	364	417	818	1.235	455	333	20	8	502	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	50	48	8	1	0	0	1	16	1	0	0	167	200	188	388	21	250	32	2	181	9	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	172	147	23	4	2	1	23	40	1	5	4	156	275	231	506	75	202	23	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	125	109	12	3	1	2	10	55	4	4	2	110	211	211	422	101	178	44	8	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	310	278	50	11	5	3	24	109	4	9	2	180	255	288	543	108	270	35	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	126	117	28	3	2	2	4	28	4	2	4	239	288	350	638	111	290	22	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	229	214	49	9	2	13	7	68	8	1	3	229	279	472	751	243	269	30	3	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	104	94	18	4	1	4	10	36	0	14	0	191	269	383	652	191	261	35	10	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	351	325	73	10	3	13	19	121	4	3	0	225	276	394	670	169	306	34	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	138	123	28	4	1	2	12	36	1	4	1	228	301	325	627	98	292	26	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	50	48	8	1	0	0	1	16	1	0	0	167	200	188	388	21	250	32	2	181	8	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
2026	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	287	264	65	11	0	7	17	82	3	5	1	246	299	367	667	121	318	29	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	25	23	7	1	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	304	333	609	942	304	282	28	4	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	172	147	23	4	2	1	23	40	1	5	4	156	275	231	506	75	206	23	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	—	172	135	38	7	4	4	33	32	1	5	4	281	421	481	903	200	340	19	19	397	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	125	109	12	3	1	2	10	55	4	4	2	110	211	211	422	101	185	44	8	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	125	101	19	5	2	3	18	38	4	4	2	188	333	366	700	178	258	30	14	316	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	310	278	50	11	5	3	24	109	4	9	2	180	255	288	543	108	276	35	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	310	265	61	14	6	4	37	79	4	9	2	230	333	374	707	143	306	25	12	317	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	459	424	95	17	4	18	22	132	12	17	7	224	282	410	692	186	280	29	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	459	412	118	24	5	23	33	99	12	17	7	286	356	536	892	250	326	22	7	389	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	489	448	101	14	4	15	31	157	5	7	1	225	283	375	658	150	307	32	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	489	434	116	17	4	21	45	131	5	7	1	267	343	470	813	203	332	27	9	356	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	362	335	80	12	0	10	19	104	4	5	1	239	288	364	652	125	311	29	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	362	328	86	14	0	13	26	89	4	5	1	262	324	424	748	162	317	25	7	330	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	172	146	23	4	2	1	23	40	1	5	4	158	275	233	508	75	202	23	13	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	125	110	12	3	1	2	10	55	4	4	2	109	211	209	420	100	178	44	8	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	310	279	50	11	5	3	24	109	4	9	2	179	255	287	542	108	270	35	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	459	422	95	17	4	18	22	132	12	17	7	225	282	412	694	187	273	29	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	489	450	101	14	4	15	31	157	5	7	1	224	283	373	656	149	302	32	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	362	336	80	12	0	10	19	104	4	5	1	238	288	363	651	125	306	29	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	459	422	95	17	4	18	22	132	12	17	7	225	282	412	694	187	273	29	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	489	450	101	14	4	15	31	157	5	7	1	224	283	373	656	149	302	32	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	362	336	80	12	0	10	19	104	4	5	1	238	288	363	651	125	306	29	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	45%	380	352	82	13	2	11	21	105	4	5	1	230	282	372	653	141	293	28	6	290	82	-8	+1	+1	+1	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	45%	70	65	14	2	0	2	4	19	1	1	0	229	280	364	644	136	293	27	6	287	82	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	51%	321	296	69	11	1	10	18	88	4	4	1	233	286	382	668	149	293	27	6	296	86	-5	+0	+1	+1	+7	0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	349	321	75	12	1	11	21	95	4	4	1	235	289	388	676	153	293	27	6	300	89	-5	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	350	322	75	12	1	11	21	94	4	4	1	234	289	386	675	152	293	27	6	299	89	-5	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	346	318	74	12	1	11	21	93	4	3	1	233	289	383	672	150	292	27	6	298	88	-5	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	333	306	71	12	1	10	21	90	3	2	1	232	288	378	666	147	291	27	6	296	86	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	321	295	68	11	1	10	20	88	3	1	1	229	284	371	656	142	289	27	6	292	83	-6	-0	-1	+1	+7	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	51%	164	152	36	6	1	5	9	45	2	2	1	231	284	374	658	143	293	27	5	292	86	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	188	173	41	7	1	6	11	51	2	2	1	233	287	379	666	147	293	27	6	296	89	-2	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	189	174	41	7	1	6	11	51	2	2	1	232	288	378	666	146	293	27	6	296	89	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	188	172	41	7	1	6	12	51	2	2	1	231	287	375	662	144	292	27	6	294	88	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	177	162	37	6	1	5	11	48	2	1	0	230	286	371	657	141	291	27	6	292	86	-3	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	168	154	36	6	1	5	10	46	2	0	0	227	283	364	647	137	289	27	6	288	83	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1124	1035	240	40	6	33	65	308	13	9	4	232	286	378	663	146	296	27	6	288	79	-22	+0	+1	+5	+24	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	138	23	3	19	38	178	8	5	2	230	286	374	660	144	294	27	6	288	79	-13	+0	+0	+3	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4092	3743	827	136	23	117	259	1188	54	67	24	221	281	363	644	142	288	29	6	284	79	-40	+1	+2	+9	+48	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	133	22	4	19	41	189	9	11	4	224	284	370	654	146	291	29	6	284	79	-12	+0	+0	+3	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 287 PAwOBA .335 → .291 (−44)K% 23.7% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.01%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.80%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.03%
Singles /BIP	25.26%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.033	×1.048	25.44%
Doubles /BIP	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.033	×1.048	5.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.033	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .335 → .291; ISO .163 → .124; BABIP .328 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 25 PAwOBA .507 → .406 (−100)K% 20.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	5.41%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.980	21.21%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.980	4.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	13.84%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .507 → .406; ISO .455 → .354; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 351 PAwOBA .355 → .288 (−67)K% 29.1% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.06%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	34.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.042	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.35%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.12%
Singles /BIP	24.65%	÷1.060	×0.930	×0.999	×1.050	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	5.58%	÷0.991	×0.830	×0.999	×1.050	4.91%
Triples /BIP	1.40%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.999	×1.050	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	8.37%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .355 → .288; ISO .227 → .173; BABIP .342 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 138 PAwOBA .334 → .281 (−53)K% 21.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.01%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	26.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷1.055	×0.700	—	×1.027	8.89%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.63%
Singles /BIP	23.86%	÷0.962	×0.970	×0.965	×1.027	23.86%
Doubles /BIP	5.68%	÷1.109	×0.860	×0.965	×1.027	4.37%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷1.141	×0.950	×0.965	×1.027	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.027	2.44%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .334 → .281; ISO .137 → .103; BABIP .310 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 229 PAwOBA .417 → .313 (−104)K% 21.8% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.83%	÷0.960	×1.310	—	—	29.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.80%	÷0.924	×0.600	—	×1.012	3.16%
HBP% /PA	3.49%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	2.72%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷1.013	×0.870	×0.950	×1.012	17.13%
Doubles /BIP	8.81%	÷1.037	×0.780	×0.950	×1.012	6.37%
Triples /BIP	1.26%	÷0.927	×0.850	×0.950	×1.012	1.11%
Home runs /BIP	10.06%	÷1.043	×0.880	—	×1.012	8.59%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .417 → .313; ISO .316 → .242; BABIP .343 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 126 PAwOBA .308 → .270 (−39)K% 19.0% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.025	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.39%
HBP% /PA	3.17%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	2.81%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.004	×0.970	×0.962	×1.042	23.68%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷1.165	×0.860	×0.962	×1.042	3.29%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.962	×1.042	1.84%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.77%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .308 → .270; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .315 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 104 PAwOBA .376 → .281 (−95)K% 24.0% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.04%	÷0.948	×1.360	—	—	34.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.42%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	—	9.84%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.19%	÷0.989	×0.920	×0.987	—	15.79%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷1.051	×0.830	×0.987	—	7.31%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.987	—	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	7.81%	÷0.933	×0.800	—	—	6.70%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .376 → .281; ISO .258 → .194; BABIP .305 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 310 PAwOBA .313 → .242 (−71)K% 25.5% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.48%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	35.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.94%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.95%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.02%
Singles /BIP	19.89%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.974	×1.015	17.67%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷0.942	×0.830	×0.974	×1.015	6.55%
Triples /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.974	×1.015	2.90%
Home runs /BIP	2.15%	÷0.999	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .313 → .242; ISO .143 → .115; BABIP .306 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rick Ankiel'99-'13 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,115 PA	3.2	2,115	76	21	236*	296*	423*	+0	-2	4.6	4.9
/162	664	24	7	+0.1	-0.6	1.4	pk7: 5
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.8	1,194	36	11	231	281	374	+4	-0	1.5	1.7
/162	664	20	6	+2.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Herm Winningham'84-'92 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,069 PA	3.1	2,069	19	105	238*	296*	357*	+1	-3	-0.5	0.2
/162	664	6	34	+0.3	-1.1	-0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhostynxon Garcia (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	228/279/368	140	293	5	2	28%	5%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	42	53→55	47→50	42	221/281/392	171	284	21	10	30%	7%	88	+0.4	212/278/350	138	282	17	9	30%	7%	78	-0.3	198/268/323	125	260	15	12	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2024 · AAA	24	40→42	52→50	52→40	44	210/289/381	170	282	20	6	32%	8%	89	+0.5	191/274/317	126	274	14	4	34%	8%	70	-0.9	163/254/270	107	234	13	1	34%	8%	49	-1.5
✕Joey Bart 2021 · MLB	24	46	48→55	46→40	37	230/277/375	145	312	16	6	31%	4%	82	+0.0	234/297/367	133	339	15	4	33%	7%	88	+0.5	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
✕Joel Guzman 2009 · MLB	24	44→52	50	45	37	231/262/382	151	290	19	7	28%	4%	78	-0.3	235/278/384	149	289	19	4	25%	5%	85	+0.2	236/279/367	131	287	17	2	24%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Chad Hermansen 2002 · MLB	24	41→42	48→55	44→50	39	212/257/349	137	277	16	6	30%	6%	69	-0.9	219/283/372	153	294	17	12	30%	8%	84	+0.1	204/264/329	125	286	14	14	32%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Travis Demeritte 2020 · MLB	25	42→46	52→55	47→50	42	215/282/387	172	299	19	7	34%	8%	87	+0.4	215/280/380	165	320	20	10	37%	8%	85	+0.2	192/251/345	153	290	20	12	39%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Jake Rogers 2019 · AA	24	38→40	47→60	48→45	42	198/263/331	133	270	14	9	32%	7%	68	-1.0	210/285/377	167	290	20	5	33%	8%	86	+0.3	210/288/419	208	272	29	1	33%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Yu Chang 2019 · AAA	23	42→47	48→50	47→45	40	213/274/359	146	297	15	7	33%	6%	78	-0.3	224/280/371	147	302	16	7	30%	7%	83	+0.1	217/278/367	150	284	17	4	29%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Alan Espinoza 2016 · AAA	25	45	49→50	49→45	43	230/281/376	146	272	18	6	23%	6%	84	+0.1	236/281/379	143	277	16	6	21%	5%	84	+0.2	250/290/391	141	287	16	3	19%	4%	88	+0.2
✕Jesús Bastidas 2024 · AAA	25	42	47→50	47→50	41	214/282/345	132	284	16	13	30%	6%	78	-0.3	207/274/345	138	271	15	13	29%	6%	75	-0.5	196/264/333	138	256	16	13	29%	5%	66	-0.8
✕Tyler Marlette 2017 · AA	24	45→43	48→50	45	40	228/271/371	143	292	16	6	28%	5%	79	-0.2	218/267/341	123	287	13	5	28%	6%	70	-0.8	210/262/326	116	274	13	3	27%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Chris Wallace 2013 · AAA	25	45→41	48→55	46→45	39	223/278/363	140	302	15	5	30%	5%	80	-0.1	221/269/329	108	324	10	5	33%	6%	68	-1.0	239/275/329	90	369	8	0	36%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Brendon Davis 2022 · AAA	25	43→45	52→50	50	40	221/280/388	167	298	20	10	32%	6%	87	+0.4	199/274/339	140	266	15	11	30%	8%	74	-0.6	176/262/295	119	236	12	12	29%	9%	57	-1.2
✕Luis Santana 2024 · AA	25	44	47→45	47→50	40	223/275/357	134	284	15	8	27%	5%	78	-0.3	205/264/312	107	256	11	8	24%	6%	63	-1.3	166/234/244	78	199	10	5	22%	6%	36	-1.8
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Michael Chavis 2019 · AAA	23	44→46	53→60	48→45	38	231/282/403	172	302	21	5	31%	5%	91	+0.7	236/291/417	181	317	24	6	32%	6%	97	+1.1	229/284/411	182	303	26	5	33%	6%	94	+0.5
✕Max Stassi 2015 · MLB	24	45	47→55	46→40	37	226/270/361	135	300	15	3	30%	4%	76	-0.4	207/264/335	128	286	15	4	32%	6%	68	-1.0	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
✕Donnie Murphy 2008 · MLB	25	46→40	49→65	46→45	42	233/283/391	157	283	16	8	24%	5%	88	+0.5	228/283/409	181	298	21	7	30%	6%	93	+0.8	218/278/427	210	255	25	2	26%	6%	93	+0.3
✕Eric Wood 2018 · AAA	25	42→50	49→55	47→45	44	216/276/365	149	277	16	7	28%	7%	80	-0.2	221/277/377	156	293	18	8	30%	6%	83	+0.1	215/269/369	154	284	18	5	30%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3

Jhostynxon Garcia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps