Luis Puello
C Tampa Tarpons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL NYY Yanke… | 139 | .361/.439/.516 | 4 | 3 | 68 | — | .232/.309/.320 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKNYY | 131 | .227/.292/.361 | 3 | 4 | -4 | — | .131/.185/.189 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKNYY | 342 | .257/.328/.489 | 16 | 10 | 70 | — | .206/.264/.373 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBNYY | 452 | .211/.267/.353 | 12 | 8 | 73 | 0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 22 | MLBNYY | 123 | .217/.274/.371 | 4 | 2 | 77 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 23 | MLBNYY | 224 | .220/.278/.378 | 7 | 4 | 81 | 0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 113 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 375 | 300 | 675 | 78 | 317 | 25 | 15 | 320 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 139 | 122 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 361 | 439 | 516 | 955 | 156 | 440 | 19 | 8 | 426 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 131 | 119 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 361 | 654 | 134 | 338 | 35 | 5 | 293 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 316 | 283 | 72 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 89 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 254 | 327 | 481 | 808 | 226 | 320 | 28 | 9 | 353 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 26 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 292 | 346 | 583 | 929 | 292 | 294 | 19 | 4 | 404 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 113 | 94 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 138 | 277 | 181 | 458 | 43 | 211 | 30 | 12 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 139 | 125 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 232 | 309 | 320 | 629 | 88 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 131 | 122 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 66 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 131 | 185 | 189 | 373 | 57 | 252 | 50 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 316 | 292 | 60 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 121 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 205 | 263 | 373 | 637 | 168 | 300 | 38 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 228 | 27 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 113 | 94 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 138 | 277 | 181 | 458 | 43 | 213 | 30 | 12 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 113 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 375 | 300 | 675 | 78 | 317 | 25 | 15 | 320 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 139 | 125 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 232 | 309 | 320 | 629 | 88 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 139 | 122 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 361 | 439 | 516 | 955 | 156 | 440 | 19 | 8 | 426 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 131 | 122 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 66 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 131 | 185 | 189 | 373 | 57 | 268 | 50 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Yankees | — | 131 | 119 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 361 | 654 | 134 | 338 | 35 | 5 | 293 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 342 | 316 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 128 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 206 | 264 | 380 | 644 | 174 | 299 | 37 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 342 | 307 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 16 | 28 | 94 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 257 | 328 | 489 | 817 | 231 | 318 | 27 | 8 | 357 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 113 | 94 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 138 | 277 | 181 | 458 | 43 | 211 | 30 | 12 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 139 | 124 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 309 | 323 | 632 | 89 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 131 | 122 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 66 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 131 | 185 | 189 | 373 | 57 | 252 | 50 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 342 | 314 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 128 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 207 | 264 | 382 | 646 | 175 | 295 | 37 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 139 | 124 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 309 | 323 | 632 | 89 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 131 | 122 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 66 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 131 | 185 | 189 | 373 | 57 | 252 | 50 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 342 | 314 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 128 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 207 | 264 | 382 | 646 | 175 | 295 | 37 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | NYY | 0% | 452 | 418 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 122 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 211 | 267 | 353 | 620 | 142 | 265 | 27 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | NYY | 43% | 284 | 262 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 215 | 272 | 363 | 636 | 148 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 282 | 77 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYY | 61% | 368 | 338 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 96 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 219 | 277 | 370 | 647 | 151 | 269 | 26 | 6 | 287 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 66% | 423 | 388 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 109 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 221 | 280 | 375 | 655 | 154 | 271 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 69% | 445 | 408 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 114 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 223 | 283 | 378 | 661 | 155 | 272 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 70% | 445 | 407 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 30 | 113 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 224 | 285 | 379 | 664 | 155 | 273 | 25 | 7 | 295 | 85 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 69% | 445 | 407 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 114 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 284 | 376 | 660 | 154 | 272 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 84 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 68% | 445 | 407 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 114 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 282 | 372 | 653 | 151 | 271 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 67% | 445 | 408 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 116 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 279 | 365 | 644 | 147 | 269 | 26 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYY | 72% | 445 | 409 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 117 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 215 | 275 | 358 | 633 | 142 | 267 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | NYY | 75% | 413 | 379 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 110 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 270 | 348 | 618 | 137 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -13 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | NYY | 43% | 123 | 114 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 274 | 371 | 645 | 154 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | NYY | 61% | 224 | 205 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 278 | 378 | 656 | 158 | 269 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 66% | 280 | 257 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 72 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 282 | 383 | 665 | 160 | 271 | 26 | 6 | 295 | 83 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 69% | 306 | 280 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 78 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 225 | 285 | 386 | 670 | 161 | 272 | 25 | 7 | 297 | 85 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 70% | 311 | 284 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 79 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 225 | 286 | 387 | 673 | 162 | 273 | 25 | 7 | 298 | 85 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 69% | 307 | 280 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 78 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 285 | 384 | 670 | 160 | 272 | 25 | 7 | 297 | 84 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 68% | 305 | 279 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 78 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 283 | 379 | 663 | 157 | 271 | 26 | 7 | 294 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 67% | 297 | 272 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 77 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 280 | 373 | 653 | 153 | 270 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 80 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYY | 72% | 318 | 291 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 84 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 276 | 365 | 641 | 148 | 268 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 77 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | NYY | 75% | 309 | 283 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 83 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 271 | 355 | 626 | 142 | 264 | 27 | 6 | 279 | 73 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2780 | 2545 | 563 | 107 | 15 | 87 | 182 | 720 | 28 | 37 | 15 | 221 | 281 | 378 | 658 | 156 | 271 | 26 | 7 | 291 | 76 | -63 | +1 | -5 | +50 | +60 | 4.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 132 | 25 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 168 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 222 | 283 | 378 | 661 | 156 | 273 | 26 | 7 | 291 | 76 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5093 | 4664 | 997 | 190 | 26 | 143 | 328 | 1396 | 67 | 85 | 31 | 214 | 275 | 358 | 633 | 144 | 271 | 27 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -101 | +3 | -7 | +78 | +95 | 6.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 126 | 24 | 3 | 18 | 42 | 178 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 212 | 274 | 353 | 627 | 141 | 269 | 27 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ATampa Tarpons · 316 PAwOBA .345 → .272 (−73)K% 28.2% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.030 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .345 → .272; ISO .226 → .171; BABIP .320 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Yankees · 26 PAwOBA .392 → .279 (−112)K% 19.2% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 2.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 8.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .392 → .279; ISO .292 → .206; BABIP .294 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 131 PAwOBA .288 → .162 (−125)K% 35.1% → 50.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.11% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 50.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.05% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.29% | ÷1.056 | ×0.820 | ×1.014 | ×1.008 | 18.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | ×1.014 | ×1.008 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | ×1.014 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.11% | ÷2.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .288 → .162; ISO .134 → .055; BABIP .338 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 139 PAwOBA .415 → .268 (−147)K% 19.4% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.42% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.91% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.32% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.79% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.021 | ×0.600 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.012 | ×1.008 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.21% | ÷0.952 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.09% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .415 → .268; ISO .156 → .083; BABIP .440 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 113 PAwOBA .316 → .219 (−97)K% 24.8% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.78% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.04% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.42% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷0.961 | ×0.680 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 16.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.84% | ÷0.996 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 2.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.996 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.463 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 193, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 99, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .316 → .219; ISO .078 → .046; BABIP .317 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).