Orelvis Martinez

2B Buffalo Bisons
Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
ETA2030MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202321AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs576.242/.340/.48128287—.209/.283/.414
202422AAA/INTL2 orgs336.261/.344/.51518093—.227/.290/.416
202523AAATOR394.176/.289/.34813241—.140/.233/.275
2027PROJ10% MLB25MLBTOR21.191/.269/.3471073-0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB26MLBTOR67.196/.274/.3582077-0.0
2029PROJ36% MLB27MLBTOR98.197/.275/.3583178-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA
Max EV87
BB%64
Z-Con%56
Speed41
Chase%32
K%25
CompsRodolfo Durán (age 25) · Brandon Barnes (age 25) · Cam Devanney (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .269 / .347
PA21
HR1
K%33
BB%10
BABIP255
ISO211
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024
POWER
Bat Spd
9076.2
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Arb-1$0.2M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201917 ROKGCL Blue Jays — 163142 39857 14294 20 275354549903 275296 189 385 72 — — — — — —
202119 A+Vancouver Canadians — 125112 24409 10281 01 214282491773 277197 228 332 74 — — — — — —
202119 ADunedin Blue Jays — 326283 7922219 33858 41 279369572942 293333 2610 406 98 — — — — — —
202220 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 492433 8815030 4014012 63 203287446733 242217 288 320 61 — — — — — —
202321 AAABuffalo Bisons — 246209 5516111 26662 20 263347507854 244317 2711 362 90 — — — — — —
202321 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 292239 549117 41602 00 226337485822 259223 2114 353 85 — — — — — —
202321 INTLTigres del Licey — 3832 7200 3102 00 219324281606 62304 268 280 76 — — — — — —
202422 AAABuffalo Bisons — 319281 7519117 27768 00 267347523870 256305 248 378 93 — — — — — —
202422 INTLTigres del Licey — 1714 2001 370 01 143294357651 214167 4118 299 88 — — — — — —
202523 AAABuffalo Bisons — 394336 5917113 471127 20 176289348637 173215 2812 289 41 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201917 ROK MLEGCL Blue Jays — 163148 28535 9424 20 189255365620 176221 266 274 72 — — — — — —
202119 A+ MLEVancouver Canadians — 125115 20308 8381 01 174234409643 235179 306 277 74 — — — — — —
202119 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 326292 6516215 251108 41 223302445747 223290 348 313 98 — — — — — —
202220 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 492444 7512023 3216912 63 169244351595 182198 347 258 61 — — — — — —
202321 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 246218 481319 19812 20 220289413702 193275 338 301 90 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 292260 529115 26762 00 200278415693 215205 269 294 85 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 319291 6617112 18918 00 227290416706 189278 296 306 93 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 394349 4912111 351367 20 140233275508 135183 359 229 41 — — — — — —
201917 ROK MLEGCL Blue Jays — 163148 28535 9424 20 189255365620 176223 266 274 72 — — — — — —
201917 ROK RAWGCL Blue Jays — 163142 39857 14294 20 275354549903 275296 189 385 72 — — — — — —
202119 A MLE2 teams — 451407 8520222 331489 42 209283430713 221264 337 303 91 — — — — — —
202119 A RAW2 teams — 451395 10326228 431139 42 261345549895 289293 2510 386 91 — — — — — —
202220 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 492444 7512023 3216912 63 169244351595 182203 347 258 61 — — — — — —
202220 AA RAWNew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 492433 8815030 4014012 63 203287446733 242217 288 320 61 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLE3 teams — 576510 10623225 481686 20 208284408692 200246 298 297 87 — — — — — —
202321 AA RAW3 teams — 576480 11627228 701366 20 242340481822 240268 2412 352 87 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLE2 teams — 336308 6917113 18968 01 224284412697 188279 295 306 93 — — — — — —
202422 AAA RAW2 teams — 336295 7719118 30838 01 261344515860 254301 259 374 93 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 394349 4912111 351367 20 140233275508 135185 359 229 41 — — — — — —
202523 AAA RAWBuffalo Bisons — 394336 5917113 471127 20 176289348637 173215 2812 289 41 — — — — — —
201917 ROK MLEGCL Blue Jays — 163149 28535 9424 20 188255362617 174221 266 274 72 — — — — — —
202119 A MLE2 teams — 451406 8520222 331489 42 209283431714 222259 337 303 91 — — — — — —
202220 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 492445 7512023 3216912 63 169244351594 182198 347 258 61 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLE3 teams — 576517 10623225 481686 20 205284402686 197237 298 297 87 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLE2 teams — 336307 6917113 18968 01 225284414698 189278 295 306 93 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 394349 4912111 351367 20 140233275508 135183 359 229 41 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 AAA MLE2 teams — 336307 6917113 18968 01 225284414698 189278 295 306 93 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 394349 4912111 351367 20 140233275508 135183 359 229 41 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLETOR 10% 380341 6515112 291237 31 191269346615 155254 328 276 73 -12 +0 -1 +1 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXTOR 10% 2119 4101 270 00 191269347616 155255 3310 276 73 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLETOR 28% 241216 42918 19774 20 195273358631 162256 328 282 77 -7 +0 -1 +1 +5 -0.1
202927 MLB MLETOR 36% 272244 481019 21865 20 197274358632 161257 328 283 78 -7 +0 -1 +1 +6 -0.1
203028 MLB MLETOR 41% 290260 511119 23915 10 197275356630 158258 318 282 77 -8 +0 -2 +1 +6 -0.2
203129 MLB MLETOR 43% 292262 511119 23915 00 197274352626 155259 318 281 76 -8 +0 -2 +1 +6 -0.3
203230 MLB MLETOR 44% 291261 521119 23905 00 197273347620 150258 318 278 74 -9 +0 -3 +1 +6 -0.5
202826 MLB CTXTOR 28% 6761 12302 5211 00 196274358632 163257 317 283 77 -2 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
202927 MLB CTXTOR 36% 9888 17403 8312 10 197275358633 161258 328 283 78 -3 +0 -0 +0 +2 -0.0
203028 MLB CTXTOR 41% 119107 21504 9372 00 198275356631 158259 318 283 77 -3 +0 -1 +0 +3 -0.1
203129 MLB CTXTOR 43% 125112 22504 10392 00 198275353627 155259 318 281 76 -4 +0 -1 +0 +3 -0.1
203230 MLB CTXTOR 44% 128115 23504 10402 00 197273348621 150259 318 279 74 -4 +0 -1 +0 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 537483 9522017 421689 10 197273348621 151259 318 282 75 -15 +0 -3 +2 +12 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 11627021 5120311 10 198276352628 154260 318 282 75 -18 +0 -4 +2 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 40083597 69314915150 300126274 236 193269368636 175245 317 279 75 -46 +1 -9 +6 +35 -1.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 11124224 4920512 41 190267362629 172242 328 279 75 -19 +1 -4 +2 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 394 PAwOBA .284 → .229 (−55)K% 28.4% → 34.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.43%÷0.988×1.200——34.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.93%÷0.984×0.690—×1.0488.76%
HBP% /PA1.78%—×0.940—×1.0481.75%
Singles /BIP12.50%÷1.007×0.930×0.950×1.04811.49%
Doubles /BIP7.59%÷1.098×0.830×0.950×1.0485.71%
Triples /BIP0.45%÷0.986×0.970×0.950×1.0480.44%
Home runs /BIP5.80%÷0.847×0.700—×1.0485.03%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .284 → .229; ISO .173 → .140; BABIP .215 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 319 PAwOBA .367 → .306 (−61)K% 23.8% → 28.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.82%÷1.004×1.200——28.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.84%÷1.028×0.690—×1.0505.52%
HBP% /PA2.51%—×0.940—×1.0502.48%
Singles /BIP18.54%÷0.988×0.930×0.969×1.05017.76%
Doubles /BIP9.27%÷0.959×0.830×0.969×1.0508.17%
Triples /BIP0.49%÷1.150×0.970×0.969×1.0500.42%
Home runs /BIP8.29%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0506.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .367 → .306; ISO .256 → .198; BABIP .305 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 292 PAwOBA .346 → .294 (−52)K% 20.5% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.55%÷0.967×1.220——25.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.36%÷1.105×0.700—×1.0428.82%
HBP% /PA0.68%—×0.850—×1.0420.61%
Singles /BIP15.08%÷1.023×0.970×0.963×1.04214.34%
Doubles /BIP5.03%÷0.963×0.860×0.963×1.0424.50%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷1.033×0.950×0.963×1.0420.52%
Home runs /BIP9.50%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0427.72%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 93, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .346 → .294; ISO .259 → .227; BABIP .223 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 246 PAwOBA .363 → .301 (−61)K% 26.8% → 33.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.83%÷0.973×1.200——33.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.57%÷0.984×0.690—×1.0507.78%
HBP% /PA0.81%—×0.940—×1.0500.80%
Singles /BIP18.88%÷1.018×0.930×0.964×1.05017.47%
Doubles /BIP11.19%÷1.033×0.830×0.964×1.0509.11%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.150×0.970×0.964×1.0500.60%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷0.916×0.700—×1.0506.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .363 → .301; ISO .244 → .198; BABIP .317 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 492 PAwOBA .313 → .258 (−56)K% 28.5% → 34.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.46%÷1.012×1.220——34.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.13%÷0.911×0.700—×1.0506.56%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.850—×1.0502.18%
Singles /BIP14.68%÷0.991×0.970×0.952×1.05014.37%
Doubles /BIP5.12%÷1.067×0.860×0.952×1.0504.13%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×0.952×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP10.24%÷1.027×0.780—×1.0508.17%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 102, BB 82 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .313 → .258; ISO .242 → .185; BABIP .217 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 326 PAwOBA .396 → .313 (−83)K% 26.1% → 33.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.07%÷1.057×1.360——33.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.12%÷0.941×0.690—×1.0307.64%
HBP% /PA2.45%—×0.780—×1.0301.97%
Singles /BIP18.18%÷0.959×0.920×0.950×1.03017.07%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.014×0.830×0.950×1.0308.90%
Triples /BIP1.01%÷1.018×0.910×0.950×1.0300.88%
Home runs /BIP9.60%÷1.010×0.800—×1.0307.83%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 92, 2B 103, 3B 104, K 111, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .396 → .313; ISO .293 → .224; BABIP .333 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 125 PAwOBA .325 → .277 (−48)K% 22.4% → 30.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.40%÷0.991×1.350——30.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.00%÷0.944×0.710—×1.0426.27%
HBP% /PA0.80%—×0.810—×1.0420.68%
Singles /BIP13.10%÷0.974×0.910×0.950×1.04212.11%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷0.938×0.830×0.950×1.0424.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.049×0.820×0.950×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP10.71%÷0.909×0.830—×1.04210.20%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 110, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .325 → .277; ISO .277 → .243; BABIP .197 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Blue Jays · 163 PAwOBA .380 → .274 (−106)K% 17.8% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.79%÷1.000×1.440——25.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.59%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0225.44%
HBP% /PA2.45%—×0.720—×1.0221.81%
Singles /BIP16.81%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×1.02213.39%
Doubles /BIP7.08%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0224.95%
Triples /BIP4.42%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0223.09%
Home runs /BIP6.19%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0224.94%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .380 → .274; ISO .275 → .200; BABIP .296 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .