Orelvis Martinez

Orelvis Martinez2B Buffalo Bisons

Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .266 / .382

PA320

HR14

K%33

BB%7

ISO190

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT40

Whiff%

1018.2%

POWER60

Bat Spd

9076.2

EYE30

Chase%

1050.0%

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	163	148	27	5	3	5	9	42	4	2	0	182	248	358	607	176	214	26	6	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	163	142	39	8	5	7	14	29	4	2	0	275	354	549	903	275	296	18	9	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	2 teams	—	451	406	87	20	2	23	34	142	9	4	2	214	290	443	733	229	263	31	8	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	2 teams	—	451	395	103	26	2	28	43	113	9	4	2	261	345	549	895	289	293	25	10	386	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	492	443	70	10	0	24	33	176	12	6	3	158	236	343	579	185	186	36	7	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	492	433	88	15	0	30	40	140	12	6	3	203	287	446	733	242	217	28	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	3 teams	—	576	514	104	22	2	29	44	178	6	2	0	202	273	422	695	220	235	31	8	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	3 teams	—	576	480	116	27	2	28	70	136	6	2	0	242	340	481	822	240	268	24	12	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	2 teams	—	336	309	71	18	1	15	17	95	8	0	1	230	287	440	728	210	279	28	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	2 teams	—	336	295	77	19	1	18	30	83	8	0	1	261	344	515	860	254	301	25	9	374	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	351	51	11	1	15	33	138	7	2	0	145	233	311	543	165	179	35	8	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	336	59	17	1	13	47	112	7	2	0	176	289	348	637	173	215	28	12	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	TOR	—	320	289	57	12	1	14	23	104	5	2	0	197	268	391	659	194	248	32	7	289	80	-7	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TOR	28%	368	331	67	14	1	16	28	115	6	2	0	202	277	396	672	193	253	31	8	296	85	-6	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.5
2028	26	MLB	TOR	38%	406	366	75	16	1	17	31	125	6	2	0	205	278	393	671	189	257	31	8	300	88	-6	+0	-1	+1	+12	0.7
2029	27	MLB	TOR	42%	419	377	77	16	1	17	33	127	6	2	0	204	279	387	666	183	259	30	8	301	89	-5	+0	-1	+1	+12	0.7
2027	25	MLB	TOR	28%	102	91	18	4	0	4	8	32	2	1	0	198	277	374	651	176	254	31	8	285	76	-3	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.0
2028	26	MLB	TOR	38%	153	138	29	6	1	6	12	47	2	1	0	210	283	399	681	188	258	31	8	289	79	-4	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	27	MLB	TOR	42%	177	158	33	7	1	7	14	54	3	1	0	209	286	399	684	190	260	31	8	291	81	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	432	387	80	17	2	17	34	133	7	3	0	207	283	393	675	186	263	31	8	289	79	-10	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	121	26	3	26	51	200	11	5	0	208	285	397	682	189	263	31	8	289	79	-15	+1	-2	+2	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	3925	3534	686	144	13	175	285	1242	69	24	6	194	267	391	658	197	238	32	7	287	78	-99	+2	-5	+14	+111	2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	114	24	2	29	47	206	11	4	1	195	267	391	659	197	239	32	7	287	78	-16	+0	-1	+2	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	163	142	39	8	5	7	14	29	4	2	0	275	354	549	903	275	296	18	9	385	153	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2021	19	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	125	112	24	4	0	9	10	28	1	0	1	214	282	491	773	277	197	22	8	332	112	+2	-0	—	—	+4	0.5
2021	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	326	283	79	22	2	19	33	85	8	4	1	279	369	572	942	293	333	26	10	406	169	+25	+0	—	—	+9	3.6
2022	20	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	492	433	88	15	0	30	40	140	12	6	3	203	287	446	733	242	217	28	8	320	103	+2	+0	—	—	+14	1.6
2023	21	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	246	209	55	16	1	11	26	66	2	2	0	263	347	507	854	244	317	27	11	362	135	+10	+0	—	—	+7	1.8
2023	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	292	239	54	9	1	17	41	60	2	0	0	226	337	485	822	259	223	21	14	353	128	+9	+0	—	—	+8	1.8
2023	21	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	38	32	7	2	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	219	324	281	606	62	304	26	8	280	73	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	22	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	319	281	75	19	1	17	27	76	8	0	0	267	347	523	870	256	305	24	8	378	147	+17	+0	—	—	+9	2.7
2024	22	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	17	14	2	0	0	1	3	7	0	0	1	143	294	357	651	214	167	41	18	299	87	-0	-0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2025	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	336	59	17	1	13	47	112	7	2	0	176	289	348	637	173	215	28	12	289	79	-9	+0	—	—	+11	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	9	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	1	244	293	414	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	6	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	24	7	230	317	416	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	464	20	3	206	277	398	+2	-1	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	28	4	206	277	398	+2.4	-1.0	1.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Orelvis Martinez (OGILVIE)	24	40	60	45	30	194/266/382	188	248	14	2	33%	7%	80	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕J.P. Arencibia 2011 · MLB	25	38→47	56→60	43→30	39	213/254/398	185	251	24	2	27%	5%	77	+0.1	217/266/413	196	261	27	3	28%	6%	86	+0.8	211/258/405	194	251	27	1	29%	5%	78	+0.2
✕Ruben Cardenas 2023 · AAA	25	38→42	57→55	45→50	37	212/259/399	186	275	27	9	34%	6%	79	+0.3	223/281/395	172	280	22	11	28%	6%	88	+0.9	221/284/392	171	272	22	11	27%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	40	53→55	47→50	41	215/272/390	175	275	22	10	30%	6%	82	+0.5	211/275/356	145	278	18	9	30%	7%	75	-0.0	201/269/340	139	259	18	12	29%	7%	66	-0.5
●Renato Núñez 2018 · MLB	24	35→45	60	47→30	38	209/255/414	204	249	30	3	30%	5%	82	+0.5	235/294/416	181	287	24	3	27%	7%	98	+1.6	235/306/451	216	271	31	1	26%	7%	111	+1.7
✕Michael Chavis 2019 · AAA	23	42→46	53→60	48→45	36	222/271/393	171	295	22	5	32%	5%	83	+0.6	232/287/410	178	314	24	6	33%	6%	94	+1.3	227/283/408	181	303	25	5	33%	6%	89	+0.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2008 · AA	24	37→47	54→55	51→50	41	205/264/381	176	254	23	10	30%	6%	77	+0.1	215/264/376	161	269	19	11	27%	5%	75	-0.0	243/295/401	158	287	19	12	22%	6%	91	+0.9
●Eric Haase 2018 · AA	25	36→44	57→65	45→40	36	198/257/397	198	286	26	5	40%	6%	79	+0.3	201/252/382	181	290	24	4	38%	6%	72	-0.2	226/282/450	225	294	33	2	35%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Josh Breaux 2022 · AA	24	39→29	56→60	47→40	36	215/255/402	186	285	25	4	34%	5%	79	+0.3	198/241/360	162	265	22	4	34%	5%	62	-0.9	184/231/318	134	246	19	1	33%	5%	43	-0.7
✕Sandro Fabian 2022 · AA	24	43→47	55→60	47→45	38	235/270/408	173	272	25	4	25%	4%	86	+0.8	230/273/405	175	260	22	5	22%	4%	87	+0.8	227/275/399	172	253	21	4	20%	5%	82	+0.4
✕Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	43→49	56→60	39→45	40	234/272/418	185	273	26	5	26%	5%	90	+1.0	237/272/388	151	279	19	5	22%	5%	81	+0.4	236/269/379	143	273	18	3	21%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Nicholas Northcut 2023 · AA	24	33→36	58→60	47→30	34	194/244/393	199	267	28	3	39%	5%	72	-0.2	172/218/328	156	261	22	3	42%	5%	43	-2.2	140/185/281	141	205	21	0	44%	4%	15	-2.5
✕Brandon Wood 2010 · MLB	25	41→45	54→65	46→50	41	221/270/398	177	271	23	7	28%	6%	84	+0.6	196/241/317	121	259	15	4	30%	5%	50	-1.8	191/236/289	98	259	11	1	30%	5%	38	-1.4
✕Travis Demeritte 2020 · MLB	25	40→44	54→60	46→50	41	211/276/392	180	298	22	7	36%	8%	85	+0.7	215/278/390	175	320	22	10	38%	7%	85	+0.7	194/252/361	167	290	22	12	40%	7%	63	-0.4
●Hunter Goodman 2023 · AA	23	41→44	56→60	47→40	35	218/268/403	186	305	25	5	37%	5%	85	+0.7	209/262/408	199	261	26	3	31%	6%	83	+0.6	224/280/438	214	267	30	4	29%	6%	96	+1.1
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2022 · AAA	24	44	54→55	44→45	37	235/270/411	177	272	22	4	24%	3%	87	+0.8	220/266/378	158	254	21	3	23%	5%	76	+0.1	209/259/354	144	237	21	1	22%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	54→55	45→40	38	228/271/405	177	288	23	7	30%	5%	85	+0.7	236/291/384	148	336	17	5	33%	6%	89	+0.9	253/338/392	139	338	17	1	28%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Will Middlebrooks 2014 · MLB	25	44→45	55	48→45	40	239/280/417	178	282	25	7	26%	5%	92	+1.2	209/250/341	132	264	17	5	27%	5%	59	-1.1	190/226/333	143	237	19	2	29%	4%	46	-1.2
✕Jerry Gil 2008 · AAA	25	40→37	56→60	46→55	33	221/249/409	188	277	24	10	31%	3%	78	+0.2	194/228/315	121	283	13	11	35%	4%	43	-2.2	131/155/229	98	194	10	13	38%	2%	-12	-2.0
✕Will Craig 2021 · AAA	26	41→46	54→55	42→40	39	220/279/396	177	281	23	5	30%	6%	88	+0.9	231/285/382	151	303	18	7	29%	6%	85	+0.7	228/280/380	152	293	20	0	29%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Ryan Casteel 2015 · AA	24	45→48	55	43→40	41	239/285/420	181	296	24	4	28%	6%	95	+1.4	226/263/353	127	312	14	5	31%	5%	68	-0.5	194/252/391	198	247	28	0	34%	7%	70	-0.2