Ruben Cardenas
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AAA/ROKTB | 336 | .226/.313/.478 | 19 | 7 | 57 | — | .176/.239/.360 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 568 | .274/.364/.483 | 23 | 9 | 79 | — | .212/.284/.349 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAAPHI | 322 | .277/.347/.550 | 20 | 10 | 95 | — | .232/.288/.431 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | — | 152 | 130 | 39 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 397 | 446 | 844 | 146 | 351 | 12 | 12 | 376 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 481 | 431 | 117 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 40 | 90 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 271 | 340 | 450 | 790 | 179 | 313 | 19 | 8 | 347 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 309 | 290 | 76 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 84 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 262 | 298 | 469 | 767 | 207 | 313 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 132 | 117 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 368 | 431 | 658 | 1.089 | 291 | 423 | 23 | 9 | 464 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 318 | 284 | 59 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 93 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 208 | 290 | 440 | 730 | 232 | 244 | 29 | 10 | 321 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 18 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 615 | 722 | 1.308 | 2.030 | 692 | 500 | 0 | 22 | 794 | 323 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 476 | 128 | 26 | 3 | 22 | 62 | 145 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 269 | 361 | 475 | 836 | 206 | 338 | 26 | 11 | 367 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 18 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 412 | 444 | 706 | 1.150 | 294 | 400 | 6 | 6 | 498 | 223 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 322 | 289 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 20 | 22 | 56 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 277 | 347 | 550 | 897 | 273 | 279 | 17 | 7 | 388 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 152 | 137 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 285 | 307 | 591 | 95 | 263 | 18 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 481 | 446 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 130 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 206 | 256 | 318 | 575 | 112 | 264 | 27 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 309 | 294 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 106 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 243 | 381 | 624 | 167 | 270 | 34 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 132 | 121 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 298 | 346 | 521 | 867 | 223 | 361 | 31 | 6 | 368 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 318 | 294 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 112 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 160 | 221 | 320 | 541 | 160 | 205 | 35 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 18 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 467 | 556 | 1.067 | 1.622 | 600 | 359 | 0 | 11 | 645 | 323 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 550 | 495 | 105 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 173 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 212 | 284 | 349 | 634 | 137 | 286 | 31 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 322 | 297 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 66 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 232 | 287 | 431 | 718 | 199 | 247 | 20 | 4 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 152 | 137 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 285 | 307 | 591 | 95 | 264 | 18 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians 1 | — | 152 | 130 | 39 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 397 | 446 | 844 | 146 | 351 | 12 | 12 | 376 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 481 | 446 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 130 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 206 | 256 | 318 | 575 | 112 | 269 | 27 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 481 | 431 | 117 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 40 | 90 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 271 | 340 | 450 | 790 | 179 | 313 | 19 | 8 | 347 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 415 | 98 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 146 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 236 | 271 | 417 | 688 | 181 | 306 | 33 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 407 | 119 | 13 | 3 | 25 | 24 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 292 | 338 | 523 | 861 | 231 | 344 | 26 | 5 | 371 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 309 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 112 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 175 | 239 | 356 | 595 | 181 | 217 | 33 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 336 | 297 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 36 | 93 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 226 | 313 | 478 | 792 | 253 | 258 | 28 | 11 | 346 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 512 | 108 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 178 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 211 | 282 | 346 | 628 | 135 | 289 | 31 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 568 | 493 | 135 | 28 | 3 | 23 | 63 | 146 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 274 | 364 | 483 | 847 | 209 | 340 | 26 | 11 | 372 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 322 | 297 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 66 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 232 | 287 | 431 | 718 | 199 | 251 | 20 | 4 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 322 | 289 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 20 | 22 | 56 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 277 | 347 | 550 | 897 | 273 | 279 | 17 | 7 | 388 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 152 | 137 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 285 | 307 | 591 | 95 | 263 | 18 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 481 | 448 | 92 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 130 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 205 | 256 | 317 | 573 | 112 | 264 | 27 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 418 | 98 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 146 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 234 | 271 | 414 | 685 | 179 | 297 | 33 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 307 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 112 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 176 | 239 | 358 | 597 | 182 | 213 | 33 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 512 | 108 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 178 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 211 | 282 | 346 | 628 | 135 | 286 | 31 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 322 | 296 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 66 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 233 | 287 | 432 | 720 | 199 | 247 | 20 | 4 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 322 | 296 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 66 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 233 | 287 | 432 | 720 | 199 | 247 | 20 | 4 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2300 | 2116 | 450 | 80 | 16 | 70 | 134 | 659 | 30 | 46 | 34 | 213 | 269 | 365 | 634 | 152 | 270 | 29 | 6 | 275 | 72 | -76 | -4 | +0 | -14 | +50 | -4.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 128 | 23 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 186 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 214 | 270 | 370 | 640 | 156 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 275 | 72 | -22 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 322 PAwOBA .379 → .309 (−70)K% 17.4% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.52% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.03% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.003 | 16.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.003 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.003 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.58% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .379 → .309; ISO .273 → .204; BABIP .279 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 550 PAwOBA .361 → .278 (−83)K% 26.4% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.36% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 20.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.65% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .278; ISO .206 → .140; BABIP .338 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAADurham Bulls · 318 PAwOBA .313 → .231 (−82)K% 29.2% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.25% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.06% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 13.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.33% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.38% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .231; ISO .232 → .160; BABIP .244 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Rays · 18 PAwOBA .772 → .645 (−127)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.956 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 13.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 3.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 29.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.902 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 18.87% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .772 → .645; ISO .692 → .647; BABIP .500 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 309 PAwOBA .326 → .260 (−66)K% 27.2% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.18% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.88% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 2.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 21.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.37% | ÷1.046 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.950 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.28% | ÷0.938 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 6.13% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 90, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .326 → .260; ISO .207 → .163; BABIP .313 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 132 PAwOBA .456 → .368 (−88)K% 23.5% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.48% | ÷1.027 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.72% | ÷0.957 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 30.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.63% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 9.75% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 91, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 105, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .456 → .368; ISO .291 → .229; BABIP .423 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 481 PAwOBA .337 → .251 (−86)K% 18.7% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.71% | ÷0.944 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.48% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.41% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 19.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.103 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 5.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.124 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 1.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.81% | ÷1.270 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 92, 2B 121, 3B 125, K 89, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .337 → .251; ISO .179 → .115; BABIP .313 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Indians 1 · 152 PAwOBA .367 → .261 (−106)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×0.985 | 16.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×0.985 | 8.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×0.985 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .367 → .261; ISO .146 → .102; BABIP .351 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .