Ruben Cardenas — OGILVIE

Ruben CardenasOF Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†107

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .301 / .431

PA250

HR10

SB5

K%25

BB%6

ISO190

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 54 / POW 64

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT54

scouting grade only

POWER64

scouting grade only

EYE37

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	20	ROK	AZL Indians 1	—	152	137	29	9	2	0	11	27	3	3	0	212	285	307	591	95	264	18	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	ROK	AZL Indians 1	—	152	130	39	13	3	0	18	19	3	3	0	300	397	446	844	146	351	12	12	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	481	447	89	15	4	6	24	138	5	11	10	199	248	291	539	92	270	29	5	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	481	431	117	24	7	13	40	90	5	11	10	271	340	450	790	179	313	19	8	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	441	414	97	8	3	22	17	155	4	6	4	234	271	428	699	193	309	35	4	300	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	441	407	119	13	3	25	24	115	4	6	4	292	338	523	861	231	344	26	5	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	336	311	53	9	1	15	22	112	2	7	4	170	230	350	580	180	205	33	7	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	336	297	67	14	2	19	36	93	2	7	4	226	313	478	792	253	258	28	11	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	568	513	107	20	3	15	43	177	7	9	12	209	279	347	626	138	282	31	8	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	568	493	135	28	3	23	63	146	7	9	12	274	364	483	847	209	340	26	11	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	322	297	73	15	1	17	14	64	9	10	4	246	300	475	775	229	257	20	4	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	322	289	80	17	1	20	22	56	9	10	4	277	347	550	897	273	279	17	7	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	PHI	—	250	228	56	11	1	10	15	61	5	5	3	246	306	434	741	189	288	24	6	325	107	+2	-0	+0	-2	+7	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	PHI	33%	319	290	70	14	1	12	20	78	6	6	3	241	304	421	724	179	288	24	6	323	105	+2	+0	-1	-2	+9	0.8
2028	30	MLB	PHI	46%	340	309	75	15	1	13	22	84	6	6	3	243	306	424	730	181	287	25	6	320	103	+1	+0	-2	-2	+10	0.7
2029	31	MLB	PHI	54%	339	308	73	14	1	12	22	84	6	5	3	237	301	406	706	169	285	25	6	316	100	+0	-0	-3	-2	+10	0.5
2030	32	MLB	PHI	58%	329	299	71	14	1	12	22	83	5	4	2	237	301	411	712	174	282	25	7	311	96	-2	+0	-4	-2	+9	0.2
2031	33	MLB	PHI	61%	305	277	63	12	1	10	20	78	5	3	2	227	291	386	678	159	278	26	7	303	90	-3	-0	-4	-2	+9	-0.1
2027	29	MLB	PHI	33%	104	95	23	5	0	4	6	26	2	2	1	242	301	421	722	179	290	25	6	313	98	-0	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.2
2028	30	MLB	PHI	46%	156	142	35	7	1	6	10	38	3	3	2	246	310	437	746	190	289	24	6	311	96	-1	-0	-1	-1	+4	0.2
2029	31	MLB	PHI	54%	182	165	41	8	1	7	12	45	3	3	2	248	311	436	747	188	287	25	7	307	93	-1	-0	-2	-1	+5	0.1
2030	32	MLB	PHI	58%	191	174	42	8	1	7	12	48	3	2	1	241	302	420	721	178	284	25	6	302	89	-2	+0	-2	-1	+5	-0.0
2031	33	MLB	PHI	61%	185	168	38	7	1	6	12	48	3	2	1	226	290	387	677	161	280	26	6	294	83	-3	+0	-3	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	818	744	179	35	4	30	52	205	14	12	7	241	302	419	722	179	290	25	6	304	91	-8	-0	-8	-5	+23	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	142	28	3	24	41	163	11	10	6	240	301	420	721	179	289	25	6	304	91	-7	-0	-6	-4	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4182	3830	856	156	20	144	252	1141	63	75	50	223	283	387	670	164	277	27	6	295	84	-77	-5	-14	-25	+118	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	132	24	3	22	39	177	10	12	8	222	281	383	664	161	274	27	6	295	84	-12	-1	-2	-4	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	20	ROK	AZL Indians 1	—	152	130	39	13	3	0	18	19	3	3	0	300	397	446	844	146	351	12	12	376	146	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2019	21	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	481	431	117	24	7	13	40	90	5	11	10	271	340	450	790	179	313	19	8	347	124	+13	-2	—	—	+14	2.5
2021	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	309	290	76	9	3	15	12	84	3	3	3	262	298	469	767	207	313	27	4	332	112	+4	-1	—	—	+9	1.3
2021	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	132	117	43	4	0	10	12	31	1	3	1	368	431	658	1.089	291	423	23	9	464	213	+17	+0	—	—	+4	2.1
2022	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	318	284	59	14	2	16	32	93	1	5	4	208	290	440	730	232	244	29	10	321	104	+1	-1	—	—	+9	1.0
2022	24	ROK	FCL Rays	—	18	13	8	0	0	3	4	0	1	2	0	615	722	1.308	2.030	692	500	0	22	794	466	+7	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2023	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	550	476	128	26	3	22	62	145	7	8	12	269	361	475	836	206	338	26	11	367	139	+24	-3	—	—	+16	3.8
2023	25	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	18	17	7	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	412	444	706	1.150	294	400	6	6	498	239	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	322	289	80	17	1	20	22	56	9	10	4	277	347	550	897	273	279	17	7	388	155	+20	+0	—	—	+9	3.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#3Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#5John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	843	31	12	238	297	413	-5	+0	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	24	9	238	297	413	-4.0	+0.0	1.1	pk7: 1
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ruben Cardenas (OGILVIE)	28	54	64	53	37	243/301/431	189	288	10	5	25%	6%	107	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Moore 2014 · MLB	27	46→48	60→65	51→40	41	248/297/462	214	305	28	5	29%	6%	112	+2.6	222/283/375	153	283	18	3	27%	7%	82	+0.5	208/253/359	151	261	17	0	27%	5%	62	-0.3
●Adam Jones 2014 · MLB	28	52→55	57→60	49→50	43	273/314/467	193	301	25	13	19%	4%	120	+3.1	265/304/447	182	292	25	7	19%	4%	111	+2.5	261/304/433	171	283	24	2	17%	5%	104	+2.1
●Harrison Bader 2022 · MLB	28	48→56	55	50→55	48	250/324/441	191	300	22	14	24%	8%	118	+3.0	240/290/374	134	283	15	24	20%	6%	85	+0.7	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
✕Andrew Young 2022 · MLB	28	43→47	57→60	48→40	38	220/302/422	202	319	24	5	37%	6%	105	+2.1	208/285/370	162	322	20	7	39%	8%	83	+0.6	171/257/312	142	262	19	4	40%	8%	53	-0.9
✕Alex Guerrero 2015 · AAA	28	48	53→65	54→45	39	246/284/420	175	293	20	9	24%	4%	95	+1.4	230/265/400	170	271	22	8	24%	4%	82	+0.5	238/268/448	210	269	30	3	25%	3%	95	+0.5
✕John Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	28	48→47	57→55	52→40	45	249/317/444	195	301	25	9	26%	7%	115	+2.8	245/320/409	164	309	17	5	25%	8%	107	+2.2	239/321/389	150	307	15	1	25%	9%	99	+0.7
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	56→55	50→55	44	247/306/434	187	286	25	11	24%	6%	108	+2.3	239/289/393	154	287	17	11	23%	5%	90	+1.0	233/279/375	142	278	15	11	22%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Jayson Nix 2011 · MLB	28	43→49	54→55	46→55	46	230/296/403	173	266	22	10	23%	7%	96	+1.5	216/281/350	134	275	14	13	26%	7%	76	+0.0	207/276/316	109	275	10	18	27%	7%	61	-0.5
●Alex Liddi 2018 · AAA	29	45→55	53→60	53→50	41	235/284/407	171	303	21	11	30%	6%	92	+1.2	238/286/444	206	315	28	9	33%	6%	102	+1.9	235/280/463	228	308	32	6	34%	5%	105	+1.2
✕Joe Mather 2009 · MLB	27	43→46	58→60	51→50	47	237/303/443	206	256	27	10	21%	7%	110	+2.4	216/274/356	140	262	15	11	23%	7%	74	-0.1	204/259/308	104	260	10	8	25%	7%	51	-0.7
●Scott Hairston 2007 · MLB	27	47→51	56→60	50	46	250/309/443	193	289	25	6	23%	7%	111	+2.5	249/309/449	200	283	24	7	21%	7%	113	+2.6	250/308/455	205	279	24	9	20%	7%	112	+1.6
✕Tyrone Taylor 2022 · MLB	28	48→52	58→65	53→55	46	254/319/458	204	294	26	10	23%	7%	120	+3.1	246/300/454	208	289	24	12	24%	6%	111	+2.5	240/290/441	201	285	22	14	24%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Jeff Baker 2009 · MLB	28	49→51	52→55	53→45	45	251/307/426	175	312	20	7	26%	7%	106	+2.2	261/316/407	146	325	13	5	23%	7%	104	+2.0	270/321/400	130	335	10	2	22%	7%	102	+0.7
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2012 · MLB	28	46→48	53→55	51→50	44	242/292/414	172	284	21	14	23%	6%	97	+1.5	235/294/398	163	281	19	7	23%	7%	93	+1.3	226/292/385	159	271	18	3	23%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Josh Fields 2012 · MLB	29	50→56	52→55	51→50	44	255/310/428	173	317	20	12	26%	7%	108	+2.3	239/287/355	116	334	11	11	30%	6%	78	+0.2	250/287/350	100	340	7	9	28%	5%	74	-0.0
●Javier Báez 2021 · MLB	28	49→58	59→65	49→55	38	257/295/474	217	318	27	12	28%	5%	115	+2.7	249/296/433	184	316	24	14	28%	5%	104	+2.0	246/293/413	167	309	21	14	27%	5%	94	+1.3
●Jonny Gomes 2009 · MLB	28	42→52	55→60	49→50	48	222/311/409	187	283	22	14	29%	9%	105	+2.1	243/318/440	197	296	25	10	26%	8%	115	+2.7	244/338/426	182	303	23	7	26%	10%	115	+2.0
●Renato Núñez 2021 · MLB	27	46→51	56→60	44→30	46	243/308/431	189	288	25	3	26%	8%	108	+2.3	244/314/463	219	292	30	5	27%	7%	120	+3.1	232/307/469	237	267	35	1	28%	7%	116	+2.1
✕Mike Brosseau 2023 · MLB	29	46→56	51→55	52→45	47	233/318/393	159	306	20	8	29%	9%	102	+1.9	215/286/355	140	273	19	6	28%	7%	79	+0.3	191/261/308	117	239	17	5	27%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Jake Fox 2010 · MLB	28	49→54	61→65	47→45	43	262/320/486	225	293	29	6	22%	6%	128	+3.7	231/288/405	174	266	20	3	22%	5%	93	+1.3	222/278/389	167	248	21	0	21%	5%	83	+0.4